274
FXUS62 KTAE 190535
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
135 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

PoPs were nudged up across our marine zones over the next few
hours where some showers have begun popping up, otherwise no
other updates appear necessary this evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The upper level high will build over the U.S. Mid Atlantic region,
while surface high pressure holds just to the northeast. This will
allow dry air to be ushered into the region, which combined with low
pressure over the southwest, will lead to a tightening pressure
gradient. This will lead to unseasonably strong easterly winds. The
weather pattern set up should suppress shower and thunderstorm
through the rest of today and into tomorrow, though there could be a
few isolated showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

High pressure will hold along with strong easterly flow during
this time frame. A easterly wave from the Atlantic will begin to
creep towards the region, ushering in some moisture. This will
increase precip chances, particularly for the FL counties;
however, confidence is still fairly low with 15-30% north of I-10
into southern GA and 30-45% south of I-10. Highs for Thu will be
in the low 90s and then fall into the upper 60s to low 70s Thu
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

High pressure will sag a bit to the south during this period and
weaken, allowing for a more typical summer like pattern. The
easterly wave in the Atlantic, currently several hundred miles
east of the Bahamas will, will drift towards the southeast US
coast. This will bring increased showers and thunderstorms to the
region for the weekend. Broad high pressure should settle just off
the Atlantic extending back into the FL peninsula. This will lead
to southeasterly flow and bring us start steering us back to our
typical summertime days with increasing chances showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The main aviation concern will continue to be breezy/elevated
east winds thru the period despite prevailing VFR conds. For the
rest of tonight, terminals look to be around 10 kts before
increasing to 12-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts at times from mid-
morning to early evening. After sunset, winds return to about 10
kts. Have mentions of VCSH and lower (albeit SCT) cigs overnight
at VLD given upstream -SHRA moving towards KVAX. Showers may also
be invof ECP tmrw aftn.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The main update to the forecast package is the introduction of a
Gale Warning this evening through mid Wednesday morning as
frequent gale force gusts are expected for the majority of the
Gulf waters. Strong easterly breezes and rough seas will then continue
over the northeast Gulf through Friday morning, thanks to a tight
pressure gradient between strong high pressure off the New
England coast and a developing tropical cyclone over the Southwest
Gulf. Winds will start to decrease on Friday, as the high
pressure center to our northeast moves closer to Bermuda and
extends a ridge axis across the Southeast States.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Our weather will generally be dominated by high pressure over the
next few days; however, the pressure gradient over us will tighten
due to low pressure over the Bay of Campeche developing.
This will lead to unseasonably strong breezes through the week, deep
mixing, and high dispersions through at least Thursday. Mainly dry
weather should supress shower and thunderstorms each afternoon,
though a few rogue showers or storms could pop up. The pattern may
change to a wetter one late in the week, but confidence is low on
timing for this.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Significant or widespread flooding is not expected through this
weekend. Little, if any, rain is expected through Thursday. Rain
chances will increase some starting Friday, but rainfall should
not be hydrologically significant.

By Monday and Tuesday of next week, ensemble mean solutions show
1000-700 mb flow becoming southerly, pumping up a more richly
moist maritime tropical air mass. With more moisture to work
with, rainfall loading beneath storms will increase, as steering
flow weakens and storm motions slow down. Therefore, there is
increasing potential for isolated flash flooding starting early
next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  92  72  94 /  10  40  10  50
Panama City   75  92  74  93 /  10  40  20  40
Dothan        71  91  70  93 /  10  20   0  30
Albany        70  92  69  93 /  10  10   0  40
Valdosta      72  93  70  93 /  10  20  10  50
Cross City    72  93  71  94 /  20  40  10  70
Apalachicola  77  90  76  89 /  20  60  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

     Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for
     FLZ114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ Thursday for
     GMZ730-750-765.

     Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for GMZ752-
     755-770-772-775.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to
     1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ Thursday for GMZ752-755-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...AH