097
FXUS62 KTAE 030029
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
829 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 828 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

The forecast is on track with minimal changes made.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Shower chances tick up a bit in the FL Big Bend Friday afternoon
with daytime East-Northeast wind gusts around 20 mph. High pres
ridging into the region with ENE gradient winds. Cannot rule out
a passing shower this afternoon in the Southeast FL Big Bend and
Forgotten Coast. On Friday, Atlantic moisture moves into the area
as PWAT increases to around 1.5 inches w/subtle shortwave energy
aloft. This justifies a slight chance of showers mainly in the
FL Big bend. Lows in the mid-60s tonight and highs in the mid-80s
on Friday, which is near average.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

A more complex pattern develops this weekend with a cutoff low
over the Bahamas moving westward and eventually being absorbed
into a broader cutoff low in the lower MS Valley by early next
week. Shower and slight thunder chances increase Saturday with
a focus in the FL Counties, then crescendo Sunday as an inverted
trough of low pressure moves through the region. In fact, PWAT
on Sunday will likely approach or exceed the 90th percentile
(1.9 inches) per ensembles, so heavy downpours will be possible.
Meanwhile, NHC is monitoring for a low 10% chance of development
along the aforementioned trough/remnant frontal boundary in the
Northeast Gulf, so we`ll continue to monitor and update on that.
It will feel increasingly humid this weekend into next week. As
broad southerly flow sets up next week, a chance of showers and a
gusty thunderstorm each day. Highs in the 80s each day with warm
overnight lows due to cloud cover will keep temperatures generally
above average.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 712 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected for most areas through the period.
However, one exception may be VLD where easterly flow is expected to
bring in some MVFR ceilings late tonight and through the morning
hours on Friday. Northeast winds will become gusty again during the
day on Friday with gusts around 20 knots expected areawide.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

A prolonged period of Small Craft Advisory conditions through
Sunday across the coastal waters with hazardous conditions for
small craft with East-Northeast winds around 20 to 25 knots
and significant wave heights rapidly increasing just offshore
to 5 to 8 feet. More favorable boating conditions are expected
by Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

The chance OF scattered showers and a slight chance of thunder
will increase on Saturday from the FL Counties into I-75 corridor
of GA, then across the entire region on Sunday. As a result, expect
gradually moistening Relative Humidity through the weekend. Breezy
easterly transport winds continue through Sunday. Mixing heights
between 4,000 and 5,000 feet on Friday and Saturday, when combined
with the breezy easterly transport winds, may lead to pockets of
high afternoon dispersion away from Gulf coast. Despite increased
shower chances this weekend, the forecast of minimal rainfall over
the next several days maintains fire weather concerns with fuels
continuing to dry out.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

The latest US Drought Monitor indicates the area of severe drought
(D2) has increased in size, generally along/north of I-10 in FL
into portions of Southwest GA. While much of the area is expected
to have rainfall by Sunday, unless forecast amounts increase, it
would not put much of dent in the current drought conditions.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   67  84  68  85 /   0  20   0  20
Panama City   68  86  69  86 /   0  20  10  30
Dothan        63  83  66  84 /   0  10   0  10
Albany        64  84  66  85 /   0  10   0  10
Valdosta      67  83  67  84 /   0  20   0  20
Cross City    68  86  69  87 /   0  30   0  50
Apalachicola  70  84  70  83 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for GMZ730-
     751-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF