582
FXUS62 KTAE 021907
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
207 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 202 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Cooler overnight temperatures are expected over the next several
  days.

- A drawn out rainfall event could bring rainfall totals of 2-4
  inches by the end of the weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Currently, all of the precipitation has now pushed eastward out of
our forecast area along with a weak area of low pressure. A cold
front will continue to push eastward through this evening, bringing
significantly cooler temperatures overnight tonight through Thursday
morning.

Temperatures will generally be in the mid to upper 30s for the
overnight lows, and mid 50s to lower 60s for the daytime highs.
Areas along the coast can expect to stay a bit warmer. This is
trending around 5 to 7 degrees below normal for most of our forecast
area.

An area of high pressure will then settle in by Wednesday. With some
dry stable air in place, expect clearing skies and a quick break
from the rain before the next round of precipitation is expected to
start as early as Thursday for our western areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 202 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

In the latter half of the week, a positively tilted, longwave trough
lee of the Rockies enables moisture to build up ahead it. This
moisture will begin to creep into the forecast region Thursday night
into Friday as troughing pushes eastward. With this afternoon and
Wednesday remaining cool and dry post-frontal, this moisture will
support the next chance of precipitation. The frontal system is
expected to slowly drag through the region into the weekend.

Cool temps lingering from the previous cold front will create a weak
environment profile with low instability, decreasing the chance for
widespread severe storms. Any chance of severe storms would be
Friday night into Saturday along the coast where southerly flow
pushes warmer unstable air inland. Extensive stratiform rain is
expected across the region Friday and Saturday with areas reaching
upwards of three inches of rainfall. While significant rain is
anticipated this weekend, flooding concerns should remain low. The
region is in a D4 drought, and the dry will allow the ground to
absorb much of the incoming rain. As a result, this weekend`s rain
should be beneficial.

The front will slowly push southward Saturday night into Sunday
leaving behind a cool, dry airmass. Another shortwave trough will
dig into the eastern US Sunday night into Monday, pushing cooler
temps northward down further to the region at the start of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Now post-frontal, a stratus deck will move in from the northwest
leading to a slow and gradually improvement to MVFR and eventually
VFR throughout the TAF period. Breezy northerly winds will settle
down by tonight and become light by tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

An area of low pressure will exit east of the waters this afternoon.
In its wake, a cold front will push across the waters. High pressure
will pass east across the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas on
Wednesday and Thursday, causing moderate northerlies on Wednesday to
clock around easterly on Thursday. Another wave of low pressure will
track east near the Panhandle coast on Friday, followed by a slow-
moving cold front on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Most areas received at least a bit of rain today, with another round
expected to start Thursday as we transition to a wetter pattern. A
quick shot of dry stable air tomorrow will keep dispersion levels
low into Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 202 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

The Monday night/Tuesday morning system delivered beneficial
rainfall across much of the area, especially within areas along and
west of the Apalachicola/Chattahoochee/Flint River Basin (ACF). Most
areas from ACF westward through Southeast Alabama and the FL
Panhandle saw 1.5-2.5 inches of rain, while areas to the east
nearing I-75 saw much less, generally around an inch or less. This
wasn`t a drought buster, but it was certain a step toward improving
drought conditions, mainly in the western portion of our area if the
rain keeps coming our way.

The focus now shifts to the system Saturday and Sunday where
potentially two waves of rainfall could impact the region with storm
totals of 2-4 inches of rain possible. This, coupled with the recent
rains could lead to drought improvement across the entire region.

In terms of flood threat, there is no riverine threat as this
weekend`s system should largely be stratiform in nature and rivers
are so low at this time, any streams would remain well below even
action levels. The flash flood thread is also really low given soil
conditions and expected low rainfall rates. The only concern would
be training bands producing rainfall amounts greater than 3-4 inches
over urban areas.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   41  60  41  62 /   0   0   0  30
Panama City   39  60  45  60 /   0   0   0  50
Dothan        35  55  37  54 /   0   0   0  60
Albany        36  55  35  57 /   0   0   0  40
Valdosta      40  60  36  62 /   0   0   0  30
Cross City    45  66  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  42  61  48  63 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Humphreys
LONG TERM....Humphreys
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys
HYDROLOGY...Godsey