871
FXUS62 KTAE 300150
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
850 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 848 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

- A high chance of rain is expected by early next week, and this
  rain will be beneficial given the ongoing drought conditions.
  The heaviest amounts are most likely across the western half of
  the area on Monday night and Tuesday. There is a 50-70% chance
  of 1 inch of rain or greater for southeast Alabama and the
  Florida panhandle.

- There is a low chance of severe weather with the next system
  Monday night into Tuesday near and along the eastern Florida
  panhandle coast. Monitor updates through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Not much to change in the forecast tonight. Temperatures are
expected to cool into the upper 40s with light easterly winds,
creating a wind chill in the mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 110 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Surface high pressure will weaken and move east as our next
frontal system approaches the area Sunday and into Sunday night.
This next frontal system is expected to be quite weak but it will
gradually stall across the area Sunday night into Monday. Ahead of
this front, weak isentropic ascent along a coastal boundary could
lead to a few isolated showers into the evening along the
Panhandle but probabilities remain low and less than 15%.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 110 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Main sensible weather highlights will develop through the early
part of the upcoming week as our first widespread chance of a good
wetting rain develops.

The period starts off with a stationary front draped over the
region. Further to our west in a region of broad elevated
southwesterly aloft, the next upper level wave will be taking
shape. As this wave moves east through into Tuesday, it will begin
interacting with the stationary front and by early Tuesday
morning the warm front should be advancing inland as a surface low
and cold front moves east. Widespread rain should overspread our
Alabama/Georgia counties and the Panhandle early Tuesday north of
the warm front. Activity should be more scattered south of the
front.

Main concerns with the front will be potential severe weather.
There is still considerable uncertainty in the expanse of the warm
sector necessary for some severe potential. The Euro guidance
keeps the surface low weaker and much further south. In this case,
severe potential would likely be confined to the coastal regions
or just offshore while the GFS is stronger and more north with
the surface low. A GFS solution would likely mean a slightly
better severe threat across our Florida counties as the warm
sector penetrates further inland.

Flooding from heavy rain should largely be limited given the more
progressive nature of the system, but heavier amounts around 1 to
2 inches would have a better chance of falling further southeast
across southwest Georgia and the Big Bend if the Euro solution
happens.

After the front moves through, a period of mostly quiet weather is
expected until the end of the week. The next system won`t arrive
until later in the week and next weekend but most guidance is
indicated another round of beneficial rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Through Sunday morning, easterly flow at the surface will be
overtopped by southeasterly and southerly flow in the 2,000-5,000
foot layer. The ensuing warm advection lift will continually renew
the BKN stratocumulus clouds that cover much of the region this
evening with cloud bases in the 045-060 range.

One thing for ABY and possibly VLD to watch will be an area of
lower clouds spreading westward and inland across southeast and
east- central GA. For example, Jesup (KJES) currently has BKN019.
These clouds will gradually spread west through the night and
could affect ABY before sunrise, if they hold together.

On Sunday, a gradual moistening of the air mass will eventually
bring cloud bases flirting near 030 on Sunday afternoon. A
sprinkle or light rain shower cannot be ruled out near DHN on
Sunday afternoon, as a cold front sharpens and gains definition to
the north over central Alabama.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 848 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

This evening at 0100Z, the Tampa buoy (42036) has sustained E
winds at 18 kts gusting to 21 kts with nearly 4 ft waves.

From Synopsis: Easterly surges tonight will create cautionary
(nearly advisory-level) conditions. A strong cold front will push
through the area on Tuesday. This front will bring a chance of
rain and a few thunderstorms on Sunday through Tuesday with winds
increasing to around 20 knots on Monday night into Tuesday. A
period of below-advisory conditions is likely during the middle of
next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 110 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Relative humidity values will be higher today compared to the last
couple of days as low level moisture returns to the region. A
wetting rain is expected on Monday night into Tuesday. This should
keep fire weather concerns low through at least Tuesday afternoon.
Only concerns will areas of low dispersions on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 110 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

The next potential rain maker is expected to affect the area
mainly on Monday night into Tuesday. This system will give the
region the best chance at widespread rainfall that we`ve seen in
some time. The most likely rainfall amounts paint 1-2 inches
across portions of southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle
with 0.25-1 inch values across most of the rest of the area. There
is a 50-70% chance of exceeding 1 inch of rain across southeast
Alabama and the Florida panhandle on Monday night into Tuesday.
This would be very beneficial rainfall, but we will need several
of these systems to erase the large rainfall deficits across the
region.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   51  73  55  72 /   0  10  10  20
Panama City   53  74  57  73 /   0  10  20  20
Dothan        46  71  51  66 /   0  20  20  20
Albany        46  70  49  66 /   0  20  10  20
Valdosta      47  74  52  71 /   0  10  10  20
Cross City    52  79  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  56  70  59  70 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs