738
FXUS62 KTAE 182353
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
653 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 647 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

 - Fog may develop over the next few nights lingering into the
   morning commute. Where fog mixes with smoke, expected very
   restricted visibilities in localized spots. Use caution if
   driving during late night or early morning hours. Slow down,
   leave extra space, and turn on headlights.

 - No significant rainfall expected through the remainder of the
   week. Drought conditions will continue and/or get worse across
   the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 124 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Deep ridging will allow for a surface high to continue to prevail
overhead bringing calm conditions today and into tomorrow. Low
humidities and PWATS will bring clear skies and light easterly flow
will generate warmer temps this afternoon.  A weak frontal system
behind the ridge continues to build, very slowly bringing back
moisture over the northwest part of the region. Elevated fire weather
concerns are apparent due to current drought conditions. However,
calm winds and slight increase in moisture lessens the concern
slightly.

Calm winds and low-level moisture returning tonight can enable
radiational cooling that may bring patchy fog to parts of the region,
decreasing visibility, tonight and into tomorrow morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 124 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

As a weak frontal system makes it way toward the district, moisture
continues to increase throughout this week. Radiation fog and drought
threat will be the main issue of concern through the end of the
week. As the frontal system moves through, higher moisture will
bring increased cloud cover with stronger winds mixing the low level
environment enough for radiation fog to be less of a concern. Any
chance of precipitation may be Saturday afternoon, although models
continue to trend lower. A lowering trend of precipitation over the
weekend will bring little to no relief to the expansive drought
conditions across the forecast region. Toward the end of the
weekend, post- frontal, dry air with above average temps are expected
to return.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR conditions are present at the start of this TAF period.
Visibility will begin to lower and winds become calm during the
early morning hours; KDHN and KECP show the highest potential for
fog between 10Z and 13Z with deteriorating flight conditions to
LIFR or even VLIFR. KTLH and KABY show a similar pattern,
although visibility may not be quite as low as terminals further
west but still degraded conditions falling to LIFR. At KVLD,
there is a possibility for MVFR vsbys but confidence is low. All
sites are expected to return to VFR conditions by about 15Z, and
these conditions remain to the end of this TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 124 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Light and gentle breezes will prevail through Wednesday, as high
pressure settles over the waters. As the high center moves east
and a low center approaches the Mississippi Valley on Thursday,
southeasterly and southerly winds will start to increase. Only
forecast concerns will be the possibility of near-shore marine
fog later in the week as southerly flow returns. The probabilities
would be highest across the Apalachee Bay where cooler shelf
waters could result in some sea fog formation later in the week.
Winds behind the cold front late Saturday into Sunday will become
more westerly to northwesterly.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 124 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Light west to northwest transport winds are expected across the area
Wednesday. A sea breeze will push inland over the Emerald Coast
Wednesday afternoon and will cause winds to shift out of the
southwest. Min RH values will drop into the mid 30s over the inland
parts of the FL Big Bend into south central GA with 40s and above
farther west and near the coast. Low dispersions are anticipated
near the coast with fair to good dispersions inland.

For Thursday and Friday, transport winds become more southwesterly
across the area with increasing RH ahead of an approaching cold
front. Winds are still light Thursday, but increase to 10-15 mph on
Friday. Dispersions will be low near the coast still on Thursday,
but will be good inland. Dispersions become good areawide Friday
with some high dispersions over south Georgia.

Given the very dry antecedent conditions, fires could still easily
start and spread despite the increasing humidity.

Fog is possible in the overnight hours the next few nights.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 124 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Rainfall through Sunday is expected to be near zero, drought
conditions will therefore persist and/or worsen across much of the
Tri-State area.

Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more information.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   50  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   57  78  59  79 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        54  82  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        51  82  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      50  83  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    48  83  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  56  74  58  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs