Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
746 FXUS62 KTBW 151800 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - Gusty marine winds possible tonight into the weekend. - High dispersions for fire weather possible Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Partly to mostly sunny skies across the region early this afternoon with seasonable temperatures. There is a pocket of slightly more moisture moving west southwest across central Florida ahead of the weak front which is allowing some very light showers/sprinkles to develop. These will continue moving west southwest into our area, but should dry up as they move toward the coastal counties. The weak boundary will move south of the region Thursday with high pressure building in from the north setting up an increased northeasterly flow with fair dry weather expected through Saturday. For Sunday into Monday the next weak cool front will approach and move across the region. Some moisture does return ahead of the boundary which could be enough for a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm, but overall chances look rather slim at 20 percent or less at this time. High pressure will build in behind the front with a return to more fair dry weather and seasonable temperatures. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 VFR conditions will prevail with northeast winds around 10 knots into early this evening, diminishing to around 5 knots later this evening and overnight, then increasing back to around 10 knots by late Thursday morning. Could see a shift to north northwest for a few hours at TPA, PIE, and SRQ this afternoon as the west coast sea breeze tries to move inland. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 A weak dry front will move south through the waters tonight and Thursday with a tightening pressure gradient resulting in increasing winds with periods of exercise caution level winds possible through Saturday. The only chance of any showers will come on Sunday and Sunday night as another weak front moves across the eastern gulf waters. High pressure then builds back into the area for the first half of next week with pleasant weather expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Pleasant weather will continue into the weekend with no fire weather hazards expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels. Some gusty winds Thursday and Friday may result in some moderate to high dispersions across parts of the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 67 88 69 87 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 68 88 69 87 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 65 87 67 86 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 66 87 68 87 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 60 86 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 69 85 70 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Close