Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
356 FXUS62 KTBW 131305 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 805 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain-free conditions and gradually warming temperatures expected through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 805 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025 The moderating trend has begun as high pressure settles over the southeast U.S. for the next few days bringing fair dry weather and pleasant temperatures and humidity. Temperatures will moderate a few degrees each day with readings back near normal this weekend. Forecast looks good with no adjustments needed. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 805 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025 VFR conditions will prevail with northeast winds at 5 to 10 knots shifting to north northwest near the coast this afternoon, then becoming light northeast overnight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025 Quiet period in store through the forecast period with W/NW flow aloft locally between broad E Seaboard/W Atlantic troughing and Gulf/C U.S. ridging, along with surface high pressure in place across the SE U.S. and local area. Winds remain on the lighter side at generally 5-10 mph through the period with rain-free conditions and mostly clear/sunny to partly cloudy skies while the cold/dry air mass from the recent cold snap continues to gradually moderate. Atmospheric moisture gradually increases through the weekend with PWs climbing back to near an inch early next week -- more typical for this time of year and a far cry from Wednesday evening`s 00Z sounding that sampled a paltry 0.33 inches (also a new record low value for 13/00Z) -- while temps gradually warm from lows mostly in the 40s this morning with afternoon highs in the 70s, to lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s with highs in the lower to mid 80s early next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 130 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025 High pressure remains over the waters into the weekend maintaining rain-free conditions with winds generally N/NE 5-10 knots and seas 2 feet or less. Northern waters shift to W/SW late weekend into next week as the high shifts slightly into the Atlantic.&& .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 130 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025 High pressure remains over the region with rain-free conditions and critical afternoon RHs across SWFL today and the Nature Coast on Friday, however relatively light winds will temper the fire weather threat despite Moderate Sig Fire Potential risk over SWFL today. Gradually increasing RHs and temps overall through the weekend as moisture recovers. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 130 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025 High pressure remains over the region with rain-free conditions and critical afternoon RHs across SWFL today and the Nature Coast on Friday, however relatively light winds will temper the fire weather threat despite Moderate Sig Fire Potential risk over SWFL today. Gradually increasing RHs and temps overall through the weekend as moisture recovers. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 76 56 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 78 54 80 58 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 76 52 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 76 54 79 56 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 75 46 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 74 60 77 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Close DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hurt DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Flannery