Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
691 FXUS62 KTBW 041826 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 126 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gradually warming temperatures into the weekend. - Next round of rain chances for the area expected this weekend. - Cooler temperatures and rain free conditions return early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1243 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 Troughing continues aloft across much of the country this afternoon as the first in a series of shortwaves migrates along the northern Gulf coast and ridging holds south of Florida. At the surface, a frontal boundary remains south of the region with some unsettled weather moving into the southeast. For tonight into Friday, weak low pressure tries to form over the deep south and then move slowly northeastward, with a few showers reaching our northern forecast area for Friday afternoon as a frontal boundary stalls across the panhandle. Moisture pooling ahead of this feature will lead to increasing shower chances farther south Friday night through Saturday night with increasing cloudiness as well. The boundary finally gets pushed southward late Sunday into Monday and this will bring us the best rain chances area-wide along with a few thunderstorms. By Monday morning, we start to see the drier air across the Nature Coast, but it looks like the rest of the region could still see some lingering showers into the afternoon before clearing out. High pressure then builds in, with cooler and drier conditions in place through mid-week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Some patchy ground fog is not out of the question, but chances are too low to mention restrictions at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1243 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 East to southeast winds will become south to southwest Friday through the weekend with no headlines expected. A frontal boundary will then move over the waters Sunday into Monday, with winds turning more northerly and increasing to exercise caution levels. Conditions will improve for Tuesday and beyond. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1243 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Moisture will increase Friday into the weekend ahead of a frontal boundary which will bring a chance for rain and some thunderstorms, especially Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 65 80 69 80 / 0 0 20 20 FMY 64 83 67 83 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 62 85 65 83 / 0 0 10 20 SRQ 63 79 67 81 / 0 0 10 10 BKV 56 82 62 81 / 0 10 30 40 SPG 66 78 70 79 / 0 0 20 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Carlisle