Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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746
FXUS62 KTBW 151800
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

 - Gusty marine winds possible tonight into the weekend.

 - High dispersions for fire weather possible Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Partly to mostly sunny skies across the region early this
afternoon with seasonable temperatures. There is a pocket of
slightly more moisture moving west southwest across central
Florida ahead of the weak front which is allowing some very light
showers/sprinkles to develop. These will continue moving west
southwest into our area, but should dry up as they move toward the
coastal counties.

The weak boundary will move south of the region Thursday with
high pressure building in from the north setting up an increased
northeasterly flow with fair dry weather expected through
Saturday.

For Sunday into Monday the next weak cool front will approach and
move across the region. Some moisture does return ahead of the
boundary which could be enough for a few showers and possibly a
thunderstorm, but overall chances look rather slim at 20 percent
or less at this time.

High pressure will build in behind the front with a return to more
fair dry weather and seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

VFR conditions will prevail with northeast winds around 10 knots
into early this evening, diminishing to around 5 knots later this
evening and overnight, then increasing back to around 10 knots by
late Thursday morning. Could see a shift to north northwest for a
few hours at TPA, PIE, and SRQ this afternoon as the west coast
sea breeze tries to move inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

A weak dry front will move south through the waters tonight and
Thursday with a tightening pressure gradient resulting in
increasing winds with periods of exercise caution level winds
possible through Saturday. The only chance of any showers will
come on Sunday and Sunday night as another weak front moves
across the eastern gulf waters. High pressure then builds back
into the area for the first half of next week with pleasant
weather expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Pleasant weather will continue into the weekend with no fire
weather hazards expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum
afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels. Some
gusty winds Thursday and Friday may result in some moderate to
high dispersions across parts of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  67  88  69  87 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  68  88  69  87 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  65  87  67  86 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  66  87  68  87 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  60  86  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  69  85  70  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

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