Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
029 FXUS62 KTBW 051806 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 106 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Aviation concerns with areas of fog and low ceilings possible early Saturday morning. - Next round of rain and storm chances for the area expected this weekend. - Cooler temperatures and rain free conditions return early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 103 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 Broad upper ridging and surface high pressure remains southeast of Florida. This pattern will keep southeast through southwest winds over the area allowing for a warm and humid air mass to remain over Florida for the next couple of days. Partly cloudy skies and above average temperatures expected for most of the area today and tonight. A little farther north, an extensive frontal boundary extends from the Carolinas, west-southwestward through the southeast U.S. and then into the northwestern Gulf. A spotty shower or two may be possible later this evening into early Saturday morning along the northeast Gulf and Nature Coast. The other weather concern will be the possibility of some areas of dense fog during the early morning hours on Saturday morning. By Saturday morning, the upper ridge and surface high pressure center has shifted further southeastward. This will allow for the frontal boundary to dip a little farther southward bringing increasing rain chances over the northeastern gulf waters, Nature Coast and even into central Florida. Southwest Florida should stay mostly rain-free on Saturday. Above average temps continue on Saturday and Saturday night. On Sunday, the ridge to the southeast further weakens, which will allow for the frontal boundary to shift further south and will eventually push through the Florida peninsula late Sunday evening into early Monday morning. Sunday will be the wettest day during the forecast period with high rain and storm chances (40-80 percent) expected through the day. The front will finally push south and east of Florida by early Monday afternoon. Strong high pressure builds in behind this front and will bring clearing conditions and slightly cooler weather for most of next week. Daytime highs for Monday through Friday next week will only reach the mid 60`s to mid 70`s each day with overnight lows dipping into the 40`s and 50`s each night next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 103 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 VFR, rain-free conditions and south-southwest winds around 8-12 knots expected through 00Z, then becoming light and variable overnight. Models continue to develop some early morning low clouds and FG/BR at all terminals, so will cover this with IFR/LIFR TEMPO groups with CIGs down to 300 feet and VSBY restrictions down to 1/2 mile in fog between 05-15Z. Conditions likely to improve after 15Z on Saturday morning with VFR through the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 103 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 Interaction between high pressure southeast of Florida and a frontal boundary to the north will keep a predominant south-southwest wind flow around 10-15 knots and seas 2 feet or less through Saturday evening. A stray shower may be possible later this evening over the northeastern Gulf. There is also a possibility of some early morning fog over the eastern gulf waters early Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon and continuing into Sunday, rain and storm chances increase as the frontal boundary slowly shifts southward. This will bring scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms over the eastern Gulf waters. By early Monday afternoon, the front pushes southeast of Florida and high pressure builds in from the northwest. This will clear out the rain chances, but will bring some hazardous boating conditions with breezy north-northeast winds around 15-20 knots and seas up to 5 feet for the first half of next week. Pleasant boating conditions expected mid to late next week with winds less than 10 knots and seas less than 2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 103 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 High pressure sits southeast of Florida while a frontal boundary remains north of the area. This will keep Florida in a warm and humid air mass with humidity values remaining above critical levels. The frontal boundary shifts further south on Saturday and Sunday with increasing rain and storm chances expected. Some areas of dense fog will also be possible during the early morning hours on Saturday morning. High pressure builds back in by Monday afternoon with pleasant weather expected for most of next week with no other fire weather concerns expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 69 80 67 79 / 20 40 50 50 FMY 67 82 68 82 / 0 0 10 20 GIF 66 83 64 82 / 10 40 40 50 SRQ 68 80 66 80 / 10 20 40 40 BKV 62 79 59 78 / 30 50 60 70 SPG 70 78 68 78 / 20 40 50 50 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Carlisle