987
FXUS62 KTBW 111315
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
915 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

A stubborn stratus deck covers most of the area this morning as
abundant low level moisture remains in place. The low clouds will
generally be rather slow to erode and lift as the low level moisture
only slowly scours out so expecting mostly cloudy skies to linger
for much of the day. This combined with troughing aloft should
keep highs from reaching climatological normal values, which will
yield highs around 3-5 degrees below normal for most areas today.
Other than some minor adjustments to sky cover this morning based
on recent satellite trends, the forecast remains on track at this
time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

 - Hazardous marine conditions will continue through the weekend.
   Winds of 20 to 25 knots are forecast in coastal waters north of
   Englewood, creating seas of 5 to 8 feet offshore and 3 to 5
   feet nearshore. Tampa Bay will see wave heights of 2 to 4 feet
   south of the Interbay Peninsula to Egmont Key.

 - There is only a 10% to 20% chance of showers near the coast
   today, with a 20% to 30% chance of showers across the interior.
   The highest potential will be in the late afternoon. It will be
   mostly cloudy and breezy today.

 - Nice, drier weather is forecast through midweek before gradual
   warming takes place late in the week. The next significant
   cold front arrives late next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

With an upper-level low over North Florida, a Nor`easter is taking
shape off the Florida east coast. This setup has dragged slightly
more mild and a significantly drier airmass over the western half
of the peninsula in the mid and upper-levels. The gradient also
remains strong, favoring a continued gusty flow across coastal
waters.

However, the more fall-like weather conditions have not yet
translated to the surface areawide. While dewpoints across the
Nature Coast and Big Bend region have dropped in the low-to-mid
60s, dewpoints remain in the 70s across Central and Southwest
Florida. It`ll really take another day for this to fully sink in -
and that is because low-level NE flow is still feeding moisture
into the area as the low organizes off the East Coast.

Over the next 24 hours or so, the low will pull away as the trough
axis positively tilts over the Eastern Seaboard, forcing the storm
system up the east coast in the Carolinas into the vicinity of the
Carolinas. The system will then start to shear out as a strong ridge
builds in from the west and squeezes the trough between itself and
the subtropical ridge to the east. As this occurs, ridging will
build back in across the Florida peninsula, allowing winds to
subside somewhat - and gradually, the winds will veer to a more ENE
direction and eventually easterly direction. This will allow
temperatures to warm during the second-half of the week, with
dewpoints also creeping back up as well.

Overall, though, the forecast looks fairly benign during the work
week. Rain chances are low, skies should be mostly sunny, and the
mornings and evenings in particular will feel pretty good. It`ll
still be warmer in the afternoons (especially later in the week) -
but still not quite as warm as it has been. Overall, it should be a
fairly nice stretch of weather to carry us into the weekend when
change will be on the horizon once more as another front approaches
the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 732 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

A combination of MVFR/IFR CIGs are in place this morning across
most of the region, though coverage of low CIGs is not quite as
extensive for SWFL terminals. The low CIGs will be slow to
scatter out this morning and will likely linger through around 18Z
before VFR conditions then return area-wide through the remainder
of the day period. Surface winds will be out of the N-NE today
and breezy at times with gusts around 15-20 kts winds should then fall
to 5-10 kts overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Hazardous marine conditions continue across coastal waters as gusty
winds of 20 to 25 knots build seas up to 8 feet offshore, making
conditions hazardous for small craft. Winds are forecast to begin
subsiding overnight, and seas will gradually subside in response.
However, this will take several hours, and slightly lighter but
still gusty winds on Sunday still favor conditions requiring small
craft to exercise caution on Sunday. As winds and seas become
lighter during the workweek, marine conditions will improve.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Gusty northeast winds will keep some higher dispersions in play as a
drier airmass moves into the region. However, low-level moisture
will remain sufficient to keep min RH values in the 50% to 70%
range. Thus, red flag concerns are low at this time through the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  84  68  84  68 /  10  10   0   0
FMY  85  68  85  68 /  20  20   0   0
GIF  83  65  84  64 /  20  10  10   0
SRQ  84  67  83  66 /  10  10   0   0
BKV  81  61  83  60 /  10  10   0   0
SPG  82  68  81  70 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
     River FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Carlisle