Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
674 FXUS62 KTBW 140016 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 716 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain-free conditions and gradually warming temperatures through the weekend. && .FOR THE EVENING UPDATE... Issued at 702 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025 Surface high pressure will hold over the region through the weekend with mostly clear skies and mild daytime temperatures. Rather cool start in the morning for the next several days as dry air over the region with dew points in the 40s to mid 50s combined with favorable conditions for strong radiational cooling each night will allow temps to drop into the 40s north to the 50s central and south the next few nights. Also the potential for some late night/early morning fog across the forecast area into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025 High pressure will remain over the southeast U.S. into Saturday then drift south across the region and into south Florida Sunday as a weakening cold front moves into the southeast states. This will continue the fair dry weather through the weekend with temperatures moderating back closer to normal for this time of year. The only real issue could be the development of some late night/early morning fog each day, especially from around the Interstate 4 corridor northward. Early next week the center of the high will move out into the Atlantic Ocean, but continue to ridge west across the Florida peninsula. The dry and mostly fair weather will persist as a more easterly flow sets up continuing the gradual increase in temperatures and humidity. It will also lead to better chances of some late night and early morning fog each day across the region. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 702 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025 Primarily VFR conditions expected at all terminals for the next 24 hours. Caveat will be potential for some patchy late night/early morning fog which may briefly create MVFR VSBYS, with the best chance at PGD/LAL. && .MARINE... Issued at 210 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025 High pressure will remain over the waters through the weekend maintaining rain-free conditions. A general north to northeast flow less than 15 knots is expected, except shifting to onshore near the coast during each afternoon, with seas 2 feet or less. Late in the weekend into early next week winds will shift to a more west to southwest direction across the northern waters as the high drifts south across the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 210 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025 High pressure will dominate through the weekend with the fair dry weather continuing. Relative humidity values for the most part will remain above critical levels, except across parts of the northern Nature Coast Friday afternoon, with sustained 20ft winds less than 15 mph. Therefore, no fire weather concerns are anticipated through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 57 79 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 55 80 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 52 78 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 55 78 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 47 78 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 60 76 61 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby