Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
086 FXUS62 KTBW 300730 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 230 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend expected to continue through Tuesday. - The next cold front approaches and moves through the area Tuesday/Tuesday night bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 High pressure along the eastern seaboard will drift east out into the western Atlantic Ocean today, but continue to ridge southwest across the Florida peninsula as an upper level trough well to the north pushes a frontal boundary into the southeast states. The east to northeast flow and moderating trend will therefore continue across the area. The frontal boundary will stall across north Florida Monday as the trough moves off to the east, but a stronger deeper trough and associated shortwave energy will be moving through the central U.S. and into the eastern states during Tuesday. This will push the front southward with breezy south to southwest winds setting up ahead of it bringing some deeper moisture north leading to a decent chance of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to the area beginning late Monday night and continuing into Tuesday afternoon. The actual cold front will move southeast through the region late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Behind it, high pressure will build in during midweek with northerly winds ushering in some cooler drier air once again. However, the temperatures will not be quite as cool as those that we had behind the last front during the end of last week. By late in the week winds will veer to the to east to southeast with temperatures moderating once again as the next frontal boundary moves into the southeast states. Some moisture will return ahead of this next system and we could therefore see a few showers, especially across the Nature Coast, next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 230 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail. East to northeast winds at 4 to 7 knots early this morning will increase to around 10 knots during the mid-morning through afternoon hours, then diminishing to around 5 knots during the evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 East to northeast winds will diminish to less than 15 knots through Monday. A cold front will approach Tuesday with winds increasing to around 15 knots out of the south to southwest ahead of the boundary then shifting to northwest to north behind it Tuesday night and Wednesday. Showers and a few thunderstorms will precede and accompany this front late Monday night and Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 230 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 Fire weather concerns remain limited as moisture continues to increase over the next few days. A cold front moves through Tuesday and Tuesday night preceded by showers and a few thunderstorms. Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the next few days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 83 65 84 69 / 0 10 10 20 FMY 85 66 85 68 / 0 0 10 10 GIF 83 63 83 66 / 0 10 10 10 SRQ 84 64 84 68 / 0 10 10 10 BKV 83 58 83 63 / 0 10 10 20 SPG 81 67 81 70 / 0 10 10 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Close DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Hurt