487
FXUS62 KTBW 240102
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
802 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog tonight from around Tampa Bay northward
  across the Nature Coast

- Patchy dense late night and early morning fog each day from
  Tuesday through Thursday.

- Cooler and drier conditions late in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

An area of fog and low clouds that was lingering off the Nature
Coast this afternoon has begun to move inland and push southward.
On land the majority of this is low clouds for now with the fog
mainly over the nearshore waters. However, as the night progresses
expect to see the clouds lower with fog, some dense, setting up
from around the Tampa Bay and Interstate 4 corridor northward
into Citrus County. There is a northeast surge moving through
northeast and east central Florida at this time with a few light
showers popping up along and behind it. This should weaken as it
moves into our region overnight, but could help prevent the fog
from getting too thick over the interior parts of the Nature Coast
and central Florida. Meanwhile further south, do expect to see
some more patchy to areas of fog develop late tonight. All of this
fog and low clouds should lift and dissipate during mid-morning
Monday with partly to mostly cloudy skies for the rest of the day
and could see a few sprinkles pop up during the afternoon and
early evening here and there. Have adjusted forecast to account
for the expected fog tonight into early Monday, otherwise
remainder of forecast looks on track at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 802 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Low clouds and fog are making progress southward into the Tampa
Bay area this evening and expect IFR/LIFR conditions to setup for
much of the night around TPA and PIE, and eventually reaching LAL.
Other TAF sites across the region should see some MVFR/local IFR
conditions later tonight into early Monday morning. VFR conditions
should return by late morning Monday and continue into early
Monday night. Light northwest winds this evening will become light
and variable overnight then increase out of the east at 4 to 8
knots by late Monday morning. Will see a shift to west and
northwest at TPA, PIE, and SRQ during the mid to late afternoon as
the sea breeze develops.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper trough along the Eastern Seaboard to move into the W Atlantic
tonight with the weak surface front lagging behind upper support
to sag over the FL Peninsula and stalling tonight. Expect another
night of patchy dense fog and low clouds after midnight especially
along and S of the frontal boundary with best moisture pooling.

Brief ridging to nudge into the region from the N Carib Monday as
the front moves back north as a warm front and washes out into
Monday night with most dense fog and low clouds reforming into
Tuesday morning. Winds will veer to the southeast on Tuesday as
surface high pressure over the western Atlantic retreats from the
region as warm and humid conditions continue.

Upper longwave trough to move through the Central U.S, bringing a
strong but mainly dry cold front across west central and SW FL
late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Behind the front a fast moving
high pressure center dropping out of Canada will bring a much
cooler and drier airmass across the region to end the week into
next weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain light as a weak cold front
continues to sink south across the E Gulf waters tonight with
winds becoming north to northwest. High pressure will build back
over the waters on Monday with winds shifting easterly through
Tuesday. A stronger but dry cold front will move across the
waters mid week. Winds/seas will quickly increase in the wake of
the cold front Thursday with cautionary levels likely...and may
approach advisory levels on portions of the waters Friday into the
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and humid conditions will continue into mid week with
generally light winds and patchy late night and early morning
dense fog possible. Light winds may lead to poor dispersion across
portions of west central and southwest Florida as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  67  84  66  84 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  64  85  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  64  84  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  65  84  64  83 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  59  84  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  68  82  68  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for
     Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Tampa Bay waters.


&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery