Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
244 FXUS62 KTBW 181310 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 810 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog expected to develop late each evening, lifting out shortly after sunrise. - Sunny, dry, and gradually warming conditions continue through the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 810 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025 Some patchy fog earlier this morning has dissipated for the most part with mostly sunny skies expected for the rest of the day. Temperatures will climb a few degrees above normal this afternoon ranging from the middle to upper 70s at the coast where the sea breeze will develop to the lower to middle 80s inland. Overall the forecast looks good with no changes needed. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 810 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025 VFR conditions should prevail through early tonight, then some areas of fog are expected late tonight into early Wednesday morning which could cause some IFR/local LIFR conditions. East winds around 5 knots will turn onshore at TPA, PIE, and SRQ this afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland, then become light and variable during this evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 104 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025 Currently at the surface, broad high pressure is sprawled across the Mid-Atlantic states and southeastern US, setting up light easterly flow across the Florida Peninsula. As this surface high pressure rotates southeast into the Atlantic through the rest of the week, the ridge axis will settle in across the Florida Peninsula. This pattern will keep rain free conditions and sunny skies in place, with temperatures and surface humidity continuing to gradually increase through the remainder of the week. The main concern apart from the warm temperatures will be fog, which is forecast to develop late each night before lifting out shortly after sunrise, mainly over the Nature Coast counties and across the interior. During the weekend, an upper level trough will swing through the southeastern US, pulling a cold front into northern Florida. Temperatures and dew points will increase even further on Friday and Saturday ahead of this front before the front weakly pushes through the area on Sunday. While temperatures will not drop significantly behind the front this far south, dew points will moderate slightly by Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 104 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025 High pressure north of the waters will settle south through the next couple of days and ridge across Florida and into the northeastern Gulf during the middle and later half of the week. Easterly flow will turn onshore each afternoon with the sea breeze, with wind speeds remaining less than headline criteria. Otherwise, rain chances will remain near zero through the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 104 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025 Relative humidity is not expected to drop to critically low levels this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 84 63 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 85 63 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 84 60 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 82 61 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 83 53 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 80 64 81 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Close DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Fleming DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Shiveley