Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
704 FXUS62 KTBW 031128 AAC AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 628 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and drier through Thursday then warming trend into the weekend. - Next round of unsettled conditions over the weekend. - Improving conditions early next week along with cooler temps. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Some lingering low clouds will lead to periodic MVFR conditions across area terminals this morning, but VFR should return by 14-15Z and will prevail through the rest of the forecast period. Light winds become north/northwest through the day, transitioning to northeast/east tonight into tomorrow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Westerly flow aloft over the peninsula this morning between broad troughing aloft encompassing most of the CONUS and ridging from the far S Gulf/NW Caribbean into the W Atlantic. A surface frontal boundary continues to push south across SWFL and will likely stall and remain in the S FL/FL Straits vicinity through late week. A series of shortwaves propagating eastward across the Deep South/SE U.S. this weekend will support the development of a few frontal waves while the lingering surface boundary lifts back north over the peninsula leading to increasing moisture and rain chances. While ridging may hold just enough on Saturday to keep highest rain chances confined to northern and Nature Coast locations, guidance indicates the ridging shifting E into the Atlantic on Sunday ahead of a more potent approaching shortwave, allowing deeper moisture to advect N/E over the peninsula ahead of the surface boundary pushing back S/E across the area leading to area wide shower and storm chances. Cooler drier air filters into the region in the wake of the front early next week as Canadian high pressure settles across the C/E U.S. favoring dry conditions and below normal temps across the local area. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Cooler and drier conditions settle across the coastal waters with winds and seas continuing to diminish in the wake of a passing cold front. Quieter marine conditions persist into the weekend when the next cold front and rain chances arrive. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Minimal fire weather concerns expected through the period as minimum RH values remain above critical thresholds. Rain free conditions through the end of the work week followed by rain chances over the weekend as a frontal boundary settles across the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 55 79 62 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 81 59 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 77 54 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 75 55 79 61 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 73 46 79 54 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 73 57 77 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Aviation...Carlisle Previous...Hurt