Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
966 FXUS62 KTBW 070637 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 237 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 .DISCUSSION... Upper ridging remains over the Gulf Region into the W Atlantic keeping deep tropical moisture over most of the state through mid week. The fluctuating but moderately tight pressure gradient continues between surface high pressure in the Western Atlantic to Mid Atlantic region and a stalled frontal boundary over the Bahamas and S FL with occasionally gusty easterly winds. PWATs to remain near 2 inches in SW and S FL areas to combine with daytime heating and boundary interactions for increasing cloud coverage and rain chances while drier air and lower PoPs should hold N of Tampa through mid week. Late in the week a shortwave trough deepens in the SE US pushing a cold front over the Deep South FRI and FL Peninsula into the weekend with a chance of rain ahead of and along the front then drier and cooler high pressure is expected to build into the region with a FL fall-like weather weekend expected. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Mainly SCT lingering low clouds but VFR conditions over the area this morning on easterly winds. This afternoon another round of mainly SHRA with a few storms develop and move over the FL Peninsula especially in SW FL terminals with areas of MVFR CIGs/vsbys possible at times, particularly during periods of heavier precipitation. && .MARINE... The moderately tight pressure gradient continues between high pressure in the Western Atlantic to Mid Atlantic region and a stalled frontal boundary over the Bahamas and S FL with occasionally gusty easterly winds and a choppy sea state. Small craft should still exercise caution and headline in appropriate zones through the week. A cold front is expected to move through the region with breezy winds expected Friday into Saturday. Showers and a few storms could also move from land to over the waters daily. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and humid conditions will continue over the area through the week with occasionally gusty easterly flow and isolated to scattered afternoon showers or a few storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 75 91 75 / 30 10 20 10 FMY 89 75 90 75 / 50 10 40 20 GIF 89 73 90 74 / 30 0 20 10 SRQ 89 73 90 74 / 40 10 20 10 BKV 89 68 90 70 / 20 0 20 10 SPG 87 76 88 75 / 30 10 20 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Davis