Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
315 FXUS62 KTBW 110117 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 817 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Hazardous marine conditions over northern waters tonight. -Temperatures remain near to below normal through Friday, then warming up during the weekend. && .UPDATE... Hudson Bay upper trough continues to deepen this evening as a shortwave is digging through the Plains to amplify the longwave trough into the Deep South Thursday pushing the next mainly dry cold front over the area during the day. Near surface moisture remains high with clearing skies for conditions favorable for patchy dense shallow field fog ahead of the front tonight as well. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) VFR conditions have finally returned areawide with light NW flow and SCT low clouds expected into the overnight hours. There is a low chance, 20-30%, of MVFR/IFR cigs aft 06Z thru around 15Z around a cold front as winds turn northerly. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 107 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 A near-zonal flow is in place aloft across the state this afternoon with surface high pressure centered over the region. Some trapped low-level moisture has kept a persistent deck of stratus across much of the forecast area since early this morning and while this helped keep low temperatures more moderate, the clouds should continue to lift and allow temperatures to rise into the upper 60s north to mid 70s south. For tonight into Thursday, an upper trough will swing through the southeast, bringing a dry cold front across the state and allowing high pressure to quickly build back in for Friday. This setup will keep slightly below normal temperatures in place through the end of the work week before conditions moderate this weekend ahead of the next frontal boundary, which is forecast to move through late Sunday. This will give us another brief cool-down for Monday, then temperatures moderate for mid week. && .MARINE... Issued at 107 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 A weak cold front will move through the region tonight, with northwest winds increasing to exercise caution levels for portions of the waters. Winds turn north through Thursday and then east for the weekend, diminishing below headlines. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 107 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 A weak cold front will move through the area tonight, with some drier air moving over the region through the end of the week. No fire weather concerns overall as relative humidity values will remain near or above critical levels and other Red Flag criteria will not be met. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 57 69 49 73 / 0 10 0 0 FMY 56 75 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 53 69 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 59 71 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 48 68 37 73 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 61 69 55 73 / 0 10 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis DECISION SUPPORT...Close UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close