Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
152 FXUS62 KTBW 061824 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 124 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog expected early Sunday morning across west central and southwest Florida. - Rain chances increase through the weekend. - Cooler and drier conditions return early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 122 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 The upper ridge and surface high pressure center has shifted further southeastward and is located east of the Bahamas. This will allow for the frontal boundary to the north to dip a little farther southward bringing increasing rain chances over the northeastern gulf waters, Nature Coast and even into parts of central Florida. Southwest Florida should stay mostly rain-free on Saturday. Warm and humid conditions continue on Saturday and Saturday night. The other weather concern will be the possibility of some areas of dense fog once again during the early morning hours on Sunday morning. The highest chances of dense fog will be from Tampa Bay southward. On Sunday, the ridge to the southeast further weakens, which will allow for the frontal boundary to shift further south and will eventually push through the Florida peninsula late Sunday evening into early Monday morning. Sunday will be the wettest day during the forecast period with high rain and storm chances (40-80 percent) expected through the day. The front will finally push south and east of Florida by Monday afternoon. Strong high pressure builds in behind this front and will bring clearing conditions and slightly cooler weather for most of next week. Daytime highs for Monday through Friday next week will only reach the mid 60`s to mid 70`s each day with overnight lows dipping into the 40`s and 50`s each night next week. By next Friday, models are developing another area of low pressure over the northern gulf coast states and will bring our next chance of showers to end next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 122 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 Most of the widespread dense fog and low clouds continue to burn off and lift at all terminals. VFR conditions expected the remainder of the day. Fog and low ceilings down to 400-700 feet are possible once again early Sunday morning, so we will likely see more IFR/LIFR impacts to the terminals during that time as well. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 Interaction between high pressure southeast of Florida and a frontal boundary over northern Florida will keep variable winds less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet or less through Saturday evening. A chance of showers will be possible through the day in the vicinity of and south of the frontal boundary. There is also a possibility of some early morning dense fog over the eastern gulf waters early Sunday morning. During the day on Sunday, rain and storm chances increase as the frontal boundary slowly shifts southward. This will bring scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms over the eastern Gulf waters. By early Monday afternoon, the front pushes southeast of Florida and high pressure builds in from the northwest. This will clear out the rain chances, but will bring some hazardous boating conditions with breezy north-northeast winds around 15-20 knots and seas up to 5 feet for the first half of next week. Pleasant boating conditions expected mid to late next week with winds less than 10 knots and seas less than 2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 122 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 High pressure sits southeast of Florida while a frontal boundary remains stretched across northern Florida. This will keep Florida in a warm and humid air mass with humidity values remaining above critical levels. The frontal boundary shifts further south on Saturday and Sunday with increasing rain and storm chances expected. Some areas of dense fog will also be possible during the early morning hours on Sunday morning. High pressure builds back in by Monday afternoon with pleasant weather expected for most of next week with no other fire weather concerns expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 67 79 67 75 / 40 70 80 30 FMY 68 83 70 79 / 10 30 60 40 GIF 64 83 65 75 / 40 60 80 40 SRQ 67 80 67 76 / 30 50 80 40 BKV 59 79 59 74 / 50 80 80 20 SPG 69 78 68 75 / 40 60 80 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Flannery