063
FXUS62 KTBW 091842
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
142 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 139 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

-  Record breaking cold temperatures expected on Monday
   night/Tuesday morning.

-  Marine hazards are expected behind a strong cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

The forecast remains on track. Showers and storms are draped across
Florida out ahead of a cold front that is on schedule to arrive
overnight tonight. Periods of showers are expected overnight into
the morning as the cold front finally pushed through. Behind the
front,strong,gusty winds causing hazardous marine conditions are
expected. Clouds will be clearing out as the day goes on Monday.
With clear conditions, temperatures will plummet into historic,
record lows overnight monday into Tuesday morning. The record low
for Tampa on November 11th, is 40 degrees, set in 1892. The
forecast low for Tampa Tuesday morning is currently 39 degrees. If
the forecast stays on track records across the area will likely
be broken. In addition to the actual low temperatures, the feel
like temperatures Tuesday morning will be in the low to mid 20s
north of I-4 and mid 20s to low 30s south of I-4. High
temperatures stay in the upper 50s to low 60s. All in all,
remember the warmth of today, by Tuesday FL will resemble the
arctic. Wednesday morning will also be cold, with widespread 30s
and 40s. However, winds will not be as much of a factor.
Temperatures begin to moderate as the week continues. By Thursday
high temperatures return to the upper 70s and the 80s return by
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Unsettled conditions continue through the day with periods of
showers and storms moving through ahead of a cold front. The cold
front will move through the area overnight tonight early tomorrow
morning. Behind the front, winds shift NW and increase.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 139 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Showers and storms over the waters today ahead of a cold front will
begin to shift overland overnight tonight into tomorrow morning.
Behind the front winds increase to advisory levels and remain
elevated through Tuesday afternoon. The high winds will also cause
increased risk of rip currents and high surf. Overall, marine
hazards remain elevated through at least Wednesday before the
winds begin to diminish.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 139 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Fire hazards increase Monday into Tuesday as very dry air settles
over the area. RH values will drop below critical levels Tuesday and
winds will be at borderline RFW criteria. Conditions improve
Wednesday as winds decrease and RH values increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  60  67  39  61 /  30   0   0   0
FMY  69  74  41  62 /  10   0   0   0
GIF  59  67  36  59 /  30   0   0   0
SRQ  62  69  40  61 /  20   0   0   0
BKV  51  62  30  58 /  30   0   0   0
SPG  61  66  43  59 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 AM EST Monday through late Tuesday
     night for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal
     Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     High Surf Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 4 PM EST Tuesday for
     Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa
     Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley