147
FXUS62 KTBW 021808
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
208 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 205 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

 - Increasing winds will cause hazardous boating conditions
   beginning today through the weekend.

 - Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop each day
   through at least early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

A bit of an unsettled pattern expected the next few days. Strong,
gusty northeast to east winds expected today through the
beginning of the weekend as the pressure gradient remains tight
over the area. This will keep marine hazards elevated as the
winds and seas remain elevated. Along with gusty winds, moisture
will continue to increase over the next few days as an upper level
shortwave lingers over the area and a surface level wave moves
east to west over the peninsula into the Gulf this weekend.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected as these
features influence the pattern. Next week we shift back into a
more typical pattern, as high pressure builds back into the area.
This will allow more typical afternoon showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Breezy, northeast to east conditions continue through the afternoon
with some passing showers and storms possible. Reduced ceilings
and visibilities could accompany any passing shower or storm.
Overnight the rain diminishes, however some lower ceilings could
still linger. Tomorrow, scattered showers moving east to west are
expected, similar to today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Hazardous marine conditions expected through the weekend as advisory
level winds continue to impact the waters. Winds begin to decrease a
bit Sunday, however will likely still be around cautionary levels
heading into next week.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as RH values remain elevated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  88  74  87 /  10  30  10  50
FMY  73  86  73  87 /  20  50  20  50
GIF  72  86  73  85 /  20  40  20  60
SRQ  72  89  73  88 /  10  40  10  40
BKV  69  86  71  85 /  10  30  10  50
SPG  75  86  74  85 /  10  30  10  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
     River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday
     for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn