Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
393 FXUS62 KTBW 190708 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 208 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy late night and early morning fog each day. - Sunny and dry with temperatures running several degrees above normal through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 In the upper levels, a broad ridge axis will slowly shift east across the Gulf waters through the rest of the week and into the weekend, while at the surface, the sub-tropical ridge axis extends from the open Atlantic across northern Florida and into the northeastern Gulf. This pattern will favor light east flow across the Florida Peninsula through the rest of the week, turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze. With ridging both at the surface and aloft, high temperatures will run about 5-10 degrees above normal for November, topping out in the low to mid 80s each day. Other than the warm temperatures, the main weather concern will be with patchy fog which could develop late each night and into the early morning hours, especially in low lying and normally fog prone area. During the weekend, a surface trough will trek east across the Mid- Atlantic states, dragging the tail end of a cold front into the Florida Peninsula Sunday and Monday before stalling out. Ahead of this front, surface dew points will increase slightly during the weekend under southerly flow. The elevated humidity is then forecast to stick around into early next week since the front is not expected to pass cleanly through the forecast area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 208 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 Mostly VFR conditions will hold today, although some patchy fog could impact area terminals through around 14z this morning before lifting out. Rain free conditions and light winds are then expected to hold through the rest of the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 208 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 Atlantic high pressure will ridge into the northeastern Gulf through the rest of the week, with rain free conditions persisting. Generally easterly flow will turn onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze, while wind speeds remain around 10 knots or less. A weak cold front will move into the waters this weekend, turning winds to more northerly by Sunday, but wind speeds should remain less than headline criteria. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 208 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 Relative humidity is not expected to drop to critically low levels through the rest of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 85 63 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 85 63 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 85 60 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 83 61 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 85 53 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 82 64 81 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Fleming