Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
336 FXUS62 KTBW 071817 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 117 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal Risk of Severe Storms with damaging winds and tornadoes possible this evening through Monday morning. - Hazardous marine conditions late Monday into Tuesday. - Cooler and drier conditions return early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 A near-zonal upper level flow has set up over Florida and will persist through Monday morning. At that time, broad upper troughing moves eastward through the southeast U.S., then exiting into the western Atlantic by early Tuesday morning. On the surface, high pressure east of the Bahamas ridges westward across southern Florida while the persistent frontal boundary that has been over northern Florida and the northern gulf waters slowly meanders southeastward through the day. Most of the rainfall associated with this front will be limited to Tampa Bay and northward through the early afternoon, then increasing in coverage and intensity as the main cold front line moves southeastward across west central and southwest Florida later this afternoon/evening and continuing into the early morning hours on Monday. The latest high-res guidance is bringing some strong storms into the eastern gulf waters and west coast of Florida this evening. There is a potential for some severe weather with this line of storms with isolated damaging winds and brief tornadoes possible. SPC has placed most of west central and southwest Florida in a Marginal Risk of Severe Storms through early Monday morning. Some residual showers and a stray storm will be possible through late Monday morning. The front will finally push south and east of Florida by Monday afternoon. Strong high pressure builds in behind this front and will bring clearing conditions and slightly cooler weather for most of next week. Temperatures for Monday through Thursday next week will only reach the mid 60`s to mid 70`s each afternoon with overnight lows dipping into the 40`s and 50`s each night. By next Friday, temperatures warm slightly to right around average for this time of year. By late Friday into Saturday, models are developing another area of low pressure and frontal boundary over the northern gulf coast states and will bring our next chance of showers to end next week. Another cool down looks to be on track to move into the area by next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 115 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 It is shaping up to be wet evening across west central and southwest Florida with showers and storms moving into the area from the gulf this afternoon/evening. Will hold VCSH starting at 18Z and VCTS at 00Z for TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ. Weather will move in a little later for PGD/FMY/RSW, so will hold VCTS starting at 03Z for those sites. The other significant impacts will be with some low CIGs producing MVFR/IFR conditions near storms and in the wake of the front early Monday morning. Winds outside of showers and storms will remain less than 12 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 115 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 A frontal boundary extending across northern Florida and the northern gulf waters will meander southeastward through the day keeping variable winds less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet or less through Monday morning. Showers and storms increase in coverage and intensity through the day with numerous showers and isolated storms expected this afternoon/evening and continuing into the early morning hours on Monday. Some of these storms may be severe and have the potential to produce damaging winds and brief waterspouts over the eastern gulf waters. Mariners should use caution and remain weather aware when operating in the eastern gulf waters today. By Monday afternoon, the front pushes southeast of Florida and high pressure builds in from the northwest. This will clear out the rain and storm chances, but will bring some hazardous boating conditions with breezy north-northeast winds around 15-20 knots and seas up to 5 feet for Monday and Tuesday. Pleasant boating conditions expected mid to late next week with winds less than 10 knots and seas less than 2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 115 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 A frontal boundary stretched across northern Florida shifts further southeastward today through early Monday morning with increasing rain and storm chances expected this evening and continuing through Monday morning. High pressure builds back in by Monday afternoon with pleasant weather expected for most of next week. No other fire weather concerns expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 67 75 54 70 / 90 30 0 0 FMY 71 79 58 75 / 60 50 0 0 GIF 65 75 52 70 / 90 30 0 0 SRQ 67 76 54 71 / 80 50 0 0 BKV 59 74 44 69 / 90 20 0 0 SPG 68 74 57 69 / 90 40 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Flannery