905
FXXX10 KWNP 191231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jun 19 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 19-Jun 21 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 19-Jun 21 2024

             Jun 19       Jun 20       Jun 21
00-03UT       3.00         1.67         1.33
03-06UT       3.00         2.00         1.67
06-09UT       2.00         1.33         1.00
09-12UT       1.67         1.67         1.00
12-15UT       1.00         1.33         1.67
15-18UT       1.33         1.33         2.33
18-21UT       2.00         0.67         3.00
21-00UT       2.00         1.33         3.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 19-Jun 21 2024

              Jun 19  Jun 20  Jun 21
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 19 2024 0638 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 19-Jun 21 2024

              Jun 19        Jun 20        Jun 21
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts are likely over 19-21
Jun, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater Radio Blackouts,
due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3712, Region 3713, and
Region 3716.