Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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460 FXUS65 KTFX 071944 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 144 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - It will be dry and mild through Friday. - Saturday through early next week it will cool down with precipitation across the area. - On Saturday it will be windy across the area. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: This afternoon through Wednesday there will be an upper-level ridge over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring warm (above seasonal averages) and dry weather to the area this afternoon through Wednesday. On Thursday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. However, there is a quick moving upper-level shortwave that will dive south from Canada and bring cooler air to North-central Montana on Thursday. On Thursday it will remain dry with above seasonal averages for temperatures in Central and Southwestern Montana and near seasonal averages for temperatures in North- central Montana. On Friday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana with an upper- level trough approaching Montana. Due to the upper-level trough approaching Montana there will be warm air advection from southerly flow aloft which will bring well-above seasonal average temperatures and dry weather to North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on Friday. Saturday through Monday the upper-level trough moves over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Due to a surface cold front combined with the upper-level trough temperatures will cool down Saturday through Monday with widespread precipitation. On Saturday due to a strong surface pressure gradient, surface cold front, and strong upper-level flow it will be windy. -IG - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: There is high confidence in the overall weather pattern through Friday with deterministic and ensemble guidance all in good agreement with the upper-level weather pattern. Saturday through Monday there is high confidence in deterministic and ensemble guidance that there will be an upper-level trough. However, there is low confidence in the positioning and strength of the upper-level trough. This leads to high uncertainty in the forecast Saturday through Monday. On Saturday there is a 20 - 50% chance for wind gusts of 45 mph or greater across most locations of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana excluding the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. On Saturday along the Rocky Mountain Front there is a 30 - 60% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater. On Saturday along the plains adjacent to the Rocky Mountain Front there is a 20 - 50% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater. -IG && .AVIATION... 07/18Z TAF Period VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals during this TAF Period with few hi-level clouds around. There will be isolated instances of low-level wind shear at the KCTB Terminal between 08/02Z and 08/12Z. -IG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 42 73 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 36 69 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 37 70 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 32 70 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 22 59 25 67 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 31 66 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 38 73 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 41 73 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls