686
FXUS65 KTFX 121108
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
408 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Unseasonably mild temperatures persist with warmest
   temperatures Thursday followed by a cooling trend later this
   weekend into early next week.

 - Windy conditions redevelop Thursday with potential for locally strong
   winds across areas adjacent to the Rocky Mountain Front late
   Thursday into Friday.

 - Showers and some mountian snow develop with a cold front
   Thursday night and Friday with additional precipitation
   opportunities late this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 341 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Broad upper level ridging remains in place across the Northern
Rockies and MT maintaining dry conditions and above seasonal through
Thursday. Meanwhile, an upper level trough still well offshore splits
with models trending towards increasing separation between a slower
southern portion that digs southward towards CA by the weekend and a
faster northern portions that tracks east across the region Thursday
night and Friday.

Temperatures remain well above seasonal averages today and are
boosted further by increasing southwesterly flow across the area on
Thursday. Breezy to windy conditions develop across the area
Thursday with locally strong winds possible Thursday night and
Friday as the trough moves across the region and surface low
pressure tracks east across southern AB. Precipitation is initially
limited to areas near the continental divide with the arrival of
PAcific cold front associated with the trough Thursday night with
some potential for precipitation further east as the font passes Friday
and the flow turns more northwesterly behind the front.

Ridging at least briefly rebuilds on Saturday for generally dry
conditions with increasing uncertainty developing Sunday through
early next week as the next Pacific trough arrives and potentially
interacts with the southern upper low ejecting out of CA. While
confidence in precipitation timing and placement is low, temperatures
look to gradually cool back to seasonal norms by early next week.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

The trend toward a more separate northern portion of the trough
moving across the region Thursday night and Friday results in
faster mid level flow across the Rockies with increasing support
for strong winds across portions of north-central MT. Areas along
the immediate east slopes of the Rocky Mtn Front could see strong
winds develop as early as late Thursday as lee-side troughing
deepens and favorable conditions for mountain wave enhancement
develop. The timing of embedded shortwave and surface low pressure
kicking east across southern AB Thursday night through early
Friday will be key to the potential for strong winds further east
than areas areas adjacent to the Rockies with probabilities for 55
mph gusts having increased to 30-60% for areas as far east as
I-15. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
12/12Z TAF Period

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period under a westerly
flow aloft. Mid-level clouds and some higher mountain obscuration
are possible this morning near the continental divide with
otherwise broken high level clouds streaming across the region.
Light surface winds transition to southwesterly across the plains
this afternoon. Hoenisch

The KWYS TAF will not be issued until airport operations resume
next spring.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  43  68  50 /  10   0   0  10
CTB  55  37  63  43 /  10   0   0  20
HLN  60  38  65  44 /   0   0   0  20
BZN  60  34  65  39 /   0   0   0  20
WYS  51  26  52  31 /   0  10   0  40
DLN  60  34  61  38 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  53  33  68  45 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  61  39  66  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls