617
FXUS65 KTFX 080923
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
223 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Decreasing winds and seasonably cool temperatures today.

 - Dry and milder conditions persist through much of the upcoming
   week with with a few windy periods.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:

A vigorous shortwave trough and low pressure system continues to
track southeast into the Dakotas this morning. Strong northwest winds
and few snow showers circulating around this system across eastern
MT early this morning will gradually decrease as the system departs.
Otherwise, dry conditions with seasonably cool temperatures are
expected today beneath a northwesterly flow aloft aloft.

An upper level ridge with axis currently along the west coast
amplifies and shifts inland Sunday but is suppressed by troughing
moving across western Canada Monday and Tuesday before rebuilding
around mid-week. This is a dry pattern for the area with
temperatures warming well above seasonal averages by Monday with
only slight moderation Tuesday and Wednesday.

Windy conditions are likely to redevelop across the plains by Monday
as westerly flow aloft increases over the flattening upper level
ridge and surface low pressure tracks east across the Canadian
Prairies.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

The couplet of surface high pressure west of the continental divide
and lee-side troughing on Monday favors strong winds mainly along
the immediate east slopes of the Rocky Mtn Front, though the
increase in winds aloft and pressure gradient across the area
supports a broad 30-40% probability for gusts in excess of 45 mph
across much of north-central MT Monday.

Maximum temperatures in the 60s next week will be run about 15-20
degrees above seasonal averages, which are in the mid-40s for much
of the area by mid-November. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
08/06Z TAF Period

The primary concern this TAF period will be for gusty winds in the
vicinity of KHVR and KLWT through early Saturday morning. Elsewhere
across North-central and Central Montana surface winds are lighter,
resulting in marginal low-level wind shear. Winds aloft decrease
early Saturday morning, which will slowly diminish the LLWS threat.

Otherwise the only concern is for some lingering low clouds in the
KHVR vicinity, which look to hang around through mid-morning
Saturday. -AM


The KWYS TAF will not be issued until airport operations resume
next spring.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  26  57  43 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  47  21  53  39 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  47  24  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  45  20  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  38  12  46  17 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  44  21  53  30 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  48  20  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  45  23  53  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls