733
FXUS65 KTFX 071036
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
436 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Dry and mild conditions persist through the rest of the work
   week.

 - Cooler and unsettled conditions develop this weekend into early
   next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 317 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Today and tomorrow, an upper-level ridge from the Pacific
Northwest will move east across the Northern Rockies and Montana.
This will bring mainly clear and dry conditions with temperatures
near or above seasonal averages. On Thursday, an upper-level
trough entering northwest Canada will split. Most of its energy
will dive southwest to form a closed upper-level low off the West
Coast, while a smaller portion tracks east across central Canada,
bringing a slightly cooler airmass to north-central Montana.
Southerly flow aloft will increase on Friday ahead of the offshore
low, pushing temperatures well above seasonal averages across the
area.

This weekend, the closed upper low will transition into an open
trough, moving inland. Additional energy will dive into this
trough as it crosses the Northern Rockies from late this weekend
into early next week. On Saturday, expect showers, possible
thunderstorms, and gusty winds with the arrival of the trough and
an associated Pacific cold front. Cooler temperatures and further
chances for precipitation, including mountain snow, will continue
into early next week.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Model ensembles largely agree on the overall pattern evolution,
showing a trough moving into the region this weekend. There is
decreased variance in its Saturday arrival timing, and
temperatures are expected to cool back to below seasonal averages
on Sunday and Monday. However, the interaction of northern energy
diving into the trough later this weekend into next week remains
less certain, as do the specific timing and placement of
precipitation. Nevertheless, some accumulation of mountain
snowfall appears likely during the Sunday/Monday period.

Gusty winds are expected Saturday with the arrival of the trough
and Pacific cold front. Most areas have a 50-80% chance of wind
gusts exceeding 40 mph. For areas prone to higher winds along the
Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains, there`s a 30-50%
likelihood of gusts surpassing 50 mph.

&&

.AVIATION...
07/12Z TAF Period

Upper level high pressure centered across the region will maintain
mainly clear skies and VFR conditions through the TAF period.
Generally light surface winds transition to south to southwest
winds across the plains and through the Madison river valley this
afternoon. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  42  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  67  36  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  67  37  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  64  32  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  57  22  59  25 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  64  31  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  70  37  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  67  40  73  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls