186
FXUS65 KTFX 141149
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
449 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions continue today over the plains and portions
  of southwest Montana.

- A passing Pacific weather system will bring periods of
  light mountain snow and some lower elevation rain and snow
  showers through early Saturday.

- Temperatures cool closer to average while periods of mountain
  snow and some lower elevation rain and snow continue into next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 357 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

The approaching Pacific trough will bring more breezy to windy
conditions today over plains and portions of southwest MT with a
few areas approaching and exceeding 50 mph. A weak surface front
drops southward and decouples winds along the Hi-line later today,
but northwesterly flow aloft will maintain general breeziness
over the plains through Saturday. Downsloping westerly flow will
generally confine the most impactful mountain snow to the higher
terrain of the Northern Rocky Mountain Front while scattered areas
of lighter end rain/snow showers fall over lower elevations
through Saturday morning, most notably near the Canadian border
and over the central and southwest valleys.

The westerly flow aloft relaxes Sunday into early next week with
transient ridging bringing drier conditions later Saturday into
Sunday. More mountain snow and some lower elevation precipitation
returns Monday into Tuesday as a weak closed mid- level low passes
to our southeast. More Pacific troughs move through heading into
mid- and late next week for more opportunities for mostly mountain
snow. Temperatures will cool to near the seasonal average by the
middle of next week. - RCG

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Windy conditions continue today...

Westerly flow aloft around 40 to 50 kts at 700 mb will maintain
breezy to windy conditions over central/north-central MT today
despite a weakening surface pressure gradient. Mountain wave
activity will also continue to decrease this morning,
significantly reducing the occurrences of 70 mph+ gusts along the
Rocky Mountain Front. A weak Canadian cold front will also serve
to weaken winds for northern areas later this afternoon and
evening, though its precise timing and evolution are uncertain.

Despite these weakening factors, the presence of modest cold air
advection and diurnal mixing may be enough to transfer some 60 mph
gusts to the surface. Given this combined with the uncertainty of
the timing of the Canadian cold front, I will leave the current
high wind warning in effect until at least mid- morning to give
the day shift an opportunity to reevaluate the situation. There
may also be a few isolated gusts over 60 mph outside the warning,
namely the Sweetgrass Hills area, the southwestern mountain peaks,
and the south to north oriented valleys south of I90. Elevated
northwesterly flow aloft may bring more gusty winds to the plains
on Saturday, though wind speeds look to remain below high wind
criteria.

Mountain snow and lower elevation showers today through early
Saturday...

The most impactful mountain snow will be above pass level along
the Northern Rocky Mountain Front with lighter snow for other
mountain areas. Lower elevations rain and snow will mostly be
along the Hi- Line and to a lesser degree over the central and
southwest valleys. Up to a couple of inches of snow looks to fall
over northern Hill and Blaine counties tonight into Saturday
morning. No advisories are planned at this time with borderline
temperatures and the heaviest snow being near and north of the
Canadian border. - RCG

&&

.AVIATION...
14/12Z TAF Period

Elevated westerly flow aloft will maintain gusty surface winds and
mountain wave turbulence through the afternoon hours. There will be
periods with wind gusts over 40 kts over the plains and the KEKS
area in southwest MT. Mountains will increasingly become obscured as
the period progresses and MVFR/IFR conditions look to develop in
the KHVR area after 15/00Z with rain/snow. - RCG

The KWYS TAF will not be issued until airport operations resume
next spring.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  43  58  36 /  40  10   0   0
CTB  51  32  52  31 /  40  30  10   0
HLN  58  39  57  34 /  70  10  10   0
BZN  59  34  57  30 /  60  20   0   0
WYS  47  30  47  26 /  80  30   0  10
DLN  56  32  55  30 /  50   0   0   0
HVR  59  29  53  28 /  50  60  30   0
LWT  59  35  57  33 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for East Glacier
Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-
Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Northern High Plains-Southern
High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$
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