874
FXUS65 KTFX 012050
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
250 PM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - It will be windy through Sunday afternoon with the strongest
   winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15
   tonight.

 - This afternoon through Sunday evening there will be mountain
   peak snow and mountain pass snow/rain.

 - It will be mild and mostly dry through the work week with
   primarily mountain precipitation and windy conditions
   returning to end the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:

This afternoon there is an upper-level ridge that has flattened
with strong mid and upper-level winds across North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana. The flat upper-level ridge will
remain over the area through tomorrow afternoon with strong mid
and upper-level winds. This combined with a strong pressure
gradient and a cold front moving through the area tonight will
bring periods of strong winds primarily to North-central Montana
this afternoon through Sunday afternoon. The strongest winds will
be overnight tonight. Due to warm air advection today it will be
warm today with some locations across North-central and Central
Montana approaching and/or exceeding record highs this afternoon.
This afternoon through Sunday afternoon there will be mountain
peak snow and mountain pass rain/snow.

On Monday an upper-level ridge will build back over North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring seasonal averages
for temperatures with mostly dry weather. Early Tuesday morning a
weak upper-level shortwave will move through the upper-level flow
and bring precipitation chances primarily to the mountains. Tuesday
afternoon an upper-level ridge builds back in over North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will also allow
temperatures to warm up and it will be dry Tuesday afternoon. On
Wednesday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring warm and mostly
dry weather to the area on Wednesday. On Thursday two upper-level
shortwave troughs will move through the upper-level flow over
North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring
multiple rounds of winds primarily to the Rocky Mountain Front and
plains west of I-15 on Thursday. It will also bring precipitation
chances to the area. On Friday there is an upper-level ridge over
North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana in the morning
before an upper-level trough moves over the area on Friday
afternoon. This will bring precipitation chances and windy
conditions to North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on
Friday. IG

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

This afternoon through tonight there is greater than a 80% chance
for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater along the Rocky Mountain Front
and plains west of I-15. Across much of the rest of North-central
Montana there is greater than a 30% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph
or greater this afternoon through tonight. Across the Rocky Mountain
Front and plains west of I-15 and the Sweet Grass Hills there is
greater than a 60% chance for sustained wind speeds of 40 mph or
greater this afternoon through tonight. On Sunday there is
greater than an 80% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater
along the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15. Across
much of the rest of North-central Montana there is greater than a
50% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater on Sunday. Across
the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15 and the Sweet
Grass Hills there is greater than a 50% chance for sustained wind
speeds of 40 mph or greater on Sunday. As a result across all of
North-central Montana and a portion of Central and Southwestern
Montana there are High Winds Warnings in effect from now through 5
PM Sunday. See the TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES Section below
for details. IG

&&

.AVIATION...
01/18Z TAF Period

Westerly flow across the Northern Rockies and MT will continue to
increase with 10000ft MSL speeds peaking around 50-70kts across
much of the area overnight. Mountain wave turbulence at at least
localized areas of low level wind shear will remain a concern
through the TAF period. Surface wind gusts in excess of 40kts will
become widespread later this afternoon at most N-central MT
terminals with periods of stronger gusts persisting through the
overnight period. Winds shift from southwest to more westerly
overnight with the passage of a front. A period of lower VFR cloud
bases and some mountain obscuration near scattered showers may
accompany the front as it moves through southwest MT late tonight
through early Sunday morning. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  54  31  48 /  10   0   0  10
CTB  38  49  26  45 /  20   0   0  10
HLN  43  52  29  48 /  30  20   0  20
BZN  40  57  24  52 /  10  40   0  10
WYS  29  49  26  50 /   0  20   0  10
DLN  42  58  25  53 /  10  10   0   0
HVR  41  57  24  49 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  43  54  25  47 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 5 PM MDT Sunday for Bears Paw Mountains
and Southern Blaine-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-
Cascade County below 5000ft-East Glacier Park Region-Eastern
Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Eastern Pondera and
Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Fergus County below
4500ft-Hill County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little
Belt and Highwood Mountains-Madison River Valley-Northern Blaine
County-Northern High Plains-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Southern
High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Western and Central
Chouteau County.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls