934
FXUS65 KTFX 021202
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
502 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Light snowfall today will bring some minor travel impacts to
   North Central and Southwestern Montana, particularly over the
   mountain passes.
 - Colder air returns to the area overnight, but not as cold as
   the weekend.
 - Next notable weather system arrives Friday, bringing another
   round of widespread snowfall to the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 354 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Snow continues to develop across the North Central Plains this
morning as an upper level trough brings a surge of moisture into
the area along and ahead of a cold front that will push southward
across the area today. While snowfall totals across the lower
elevations will generally be a few inches or less, some of the
upslope areas will see some more meaningful accumulations, with
the Highwoods, Snowies, and Little Belts likely to see snow
amounts exceed 6 inches.

Behind this system, northwesterly flow aloft will develop across
the area as an upper level ridge sets up just offshore the West
Coast. This setup will keep us on the slightly below average side
of temperatures with fairly benign weather across North Central
and Southwestern Montana Wednesday and Thursday. However, a series
of weak disturbances will make their way over the ridge starting
Friday and Saturday, which will bring a return to more unsettled
weather to close out the week, with multiple rounds of snowfall
looking likely into early next week.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Late week snow: While the arrival of some snowfall Friday and
Saturday is appearing more and more likely for at least part of
the area, there remains some uncertainty as to how much snow will
fall and how widespread an area the snow will affect. Right now
the most likely scenario appears to be a few rounds quick hitting
snowfall that drops anywhere between 1-4 inches across the lower
elevations, but I cant rule out a scenario where northerly winds
behind this system bring some more snow to the northerly upslope
areas. Models continue to show a few different possibilities, but
there has been a bit of a trend towards the higher snowfall totals
generally staying confined to the higher terrain of Southwestern
Montana with a trend towards lighter snowfall amounts across the
plains. Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...
02/12Z TAF Period

Widespread snow bringing IFR conditions will continue to affect
North Central Montana through the morning hours until a cold front
pushes southward across the area later this morning and early this
afternoon. KGTF and KLWT are most likely to see lasting periods of
MVFR to IFR conditions (with a risk of brief LIFR conditions due
to cigs and/or vis). Further southwest, watch for generally VFR to
MVFR conditions for the valley TAFs as cigs and vis should
generally be a bit higher, though mountains will be obscured area
wide. Ludwig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  16  33  23 /  90  60   0   0
CTB  33   9  29  20 /  70  20   0   0
HLN  33  17  33  20 /  90  60   0   0
BZN  34  15  32  14 /  80  50   0   0
WYS  28   5  29  10 /  80  40   0  10
DLN  37  15  34  17 /  50  40   0   0
HVR  35   6  24  11 /  60  20  10   0
LWT  33  12  31  18 / 100  70  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for East
Glacier Park Region-Northwest Beaverhead County-Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Wednesday for Bears Paw
Mountains and Southern Blaine-Cascade County below 5000ft-
Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Fergus County below 4500ft-Gates
of the Mountains-Helena Valley-Judith Basin County and Judith
Gap-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Wednesday for Big Belt,
Bridger and Castle Mountains-Gallatin and Madison County
Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Little Belt and Highwood
Mountains-Snowy and Judith Mountains.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls