779
FXUS65 KTFX 030454
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
954 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Gusty winds diminish this evening with lighter winds prevailing
   through Monday.

 - Temperatures fluctuate at near to above average levels through
   the rest of the week with some light rain or snow showers
   possible Monday night through Tuesday night.

 - Windy conditions redevelop Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 438 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

The large scale weather pattern continues to feature a fast westerly
flow aloft through the week ahead with several waves progressing
through the flow across the Northern Rockies and MT. Temperatures
fluctuate some with the passage of each wave but largely remain near
to slightly above seasonal averages with the mildest temperatures
likely on Wednesday. Weak upper level ridging in the flow
develops across the Northern Rockies and MT tonight through Monday
for a period of dry conditions. The upper level jet maximum and
fast mid level flow that bought very windy conditions to the area
this weekend is translating east and out of the area with gusty
afternoon winds expected to quickly diminish this evening.

The Monday night through Wednesday period is somewhat unsettled as a
series of weak waves and associated Pacific moisture move across the
area. Precipitation is mainly focused along and west of the
continental divide but there will be baroclinic/frontal zone across
the area that may allow for areas of light precipitation to make it
further east across central and southwest MT at times. Snow levels
initially range from around 4000-6000 ft Monday night, but gradually
rise to mainly above 6000-7000 ft later Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Measurable snowfall during this period is mainly limited to northern
portions of the continental divide and Glacier NP.

A brief dry and milder period is likely Wednesday as upper ridging
amplifies before the next series of Pacific troughs move into the
region Thursday through Saturday. Timing and amplitude uncertainty
increases later this week into next weekend with potential for
additional periods of stronger winds and at least some mountain
precipitation with the passage of these systems.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Measurable snowfall in the Monday night through Tuesday period is
mainly limited to the mountains near the continental divide north of
Rogers Pass to the Canadian border. There is a 60-80% probability
for snowfall amounts of 2 inches or more at Marias Pass over this
period, but relatively mild air and road surface temperatures
should keep any impacts there minor.

The probability for strong (>55 mph) wind gusts Thu/Fri is 70% or
higher for Glacier County and areas near the Rocky Mtn front while
the probability for strong winds remain at 40% or less elsewhere
across the area. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
03/06Z TAF Period

Initial concern this TAF period is for low clouds around KWYS
through mid morning Monday. Otherwise attention turns toward
increased cloud cover and precipitation, mainly along the
Continental Divide Monday afternoon, which will obscure mountains at
times. -AM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  49  37  52 /   0  10  30  30
CTB  28  43  30  46 /   0  30  20  30
HLN  28  50  37  55 /   0  10  40  50
BZN  25  52  36  58 /   0   0  20  30
WYS  23  52  31  45 /   0   0  10  40
DLN  24  57  36  55 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  25  48  31  48 /   0  10  20  30
LWT  25  50  34  51 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls