178
FXUS65 KTFX 071737
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1037 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - A period of brief but intense snow showers accompanies the passage
   of a cold front across parts of southwest Montana this
   morning.

 - Locally strong winds develop this morning across western portions
   of north-central Montana and across eastern portions of north-
   central Montana later this afternoon and overnight.

 - Mainly dry conditions are expected this weeekend through at
   least the first half of next week with well above average
   temperatures early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
/Issued 851 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025/

Updates were made to the high wind warning to include the rest of
Toole and Chouteau counties as well as the addition of Liberty and
lower elevations of Judith Basin county into the ongoing high wind
warning based on trending observations and updated hi-res model
guidance.

With stronger 700mb support coming in sooner, the decision was
made to add Hill county to the eastern segment of the high wind
warning and move the start time up to 11 AM to match what the
latest model guidance has put out.

Otherwise, a band of moderate to heavy snow will continue to make
its way across southwestern Montana this morning. Impacts to
visibility and road conditions are expected and motorists should
be prepared for rapidly changing road and weather conditions
through the early afternoon. Behind the band of snow showers,
calmer conditions will return for southwest Montana through the
rest of the day. A winter weather advisory remains in effect for
Beaverhead county through 11 AM with an additional 1-3 inches of
snow possible across the passes and mountain roads with heavy
snowfall rates up to 1/2" per hour at times through the remainder
of the morning.

Otherwise, no major changes were made to the going forecast.
-thor


&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 851 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

A potent shortwave through moves across the Northern Rockies this
morning with surface low pressure emerging across far southern AB
and tracking east-southeast across NE MT tonight. A Pacific cold
front will cross the continental divide early this morning with a
somewhat organized band of precipitation accompanying the frontal
passage across southwest MT. Cooling aloft will quickly lower snow
levels to around 4000 ft across SW MT where weak instability will
also support brief but intense snowfall rates initially as the
frontal precipitation moves into NW Beaverhead county this morning.

Winds will be the primary concern following the frontal passage
across north-central MT this morning as surface low pressure
deepens across southern AB beneath the emerging vigorous
shortwave. Strong downward motion is evident in early morning
Satellite imagery across eastern WA following this wave, which
should help support the downward mixing of 50-55kt 700MB flow
developing to the south of the emerging shortwave across western
portions of north-central MT. Afternoon mixing will help sustain
very windy conditions across much of the area with the focus for
stronger winds/gusts shifting east across north-central MT as the
shortwave tracks east along the international border. Eastern
portions of north-central MT will see the strongest gusts tonight
as a northwesterly lower level (850MB) 40-50kt wind max develops
behind the shortwave and surface low traversing NE MT. Snow
showers are also expected to wrap around the low across primarily
Hill and Blaine counties in the vicinity of the Bears Paw
mountains.

A northwest flow aloft maintains cooler (near seasonal)
temperatures through Saturday before a warming trend begins Sunday.
Upper level ridging prevails across the Northern Rockies through at
least the first half of next week for dry conditions with
temperatures warming well above seasonal averages. Upper level
systemS passing through western Canada could bring periods of
stronger winds at times early next week (Mon/Tue) and again later
next week as the upper ridge breaks down.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

A Winter Weather Advisory continues through this morning for NW
Beaverhead county where the frontal precipitation will still have
some organization while crossing the divide and may produce a
brief period of snowfall rates to around 1/2" per hour. The short
duration will limit snowfall amounts but rapid changes in
visibility and the potential for quick slush accumulation on road
surfaces is a concern, especially over Chief Joseph and Big Hole
Passes.

High Wind Warnings have been issued for areas along and west of I-15
across north-central MT beginning this morning, where there is a 60%
or higher probability of gusts exceeding 60 mph. Potential for
mountain wave enhancement and highest gust speeds is greatest in the
mid-late morning period.

High Wind Warnings go into effect late this afternoon across eastern
portions of north-central MT with strongest winds likely to occur
there overnight. Overnight timing of strongest winds winds may limit
the strongest gusts to areas enhanced by terrain closer to the
Bears Paw, Little Rockies, Snowy and Judith Ranges. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
07/18Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals during this TAF
Period. There will be strong winds across the KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, and
KLWT terminals during the first 6 to 12 hours of this TAF Period.
Winds at the KCTB terminal will gust in excess of 50 kts for the
first 6 hours of this TAF Period. From now until 08/12Z there is a
20 - 50% chance for rain at the KHVR terminal. After 08/00Z through
the end of the TAF period there will be isolated instances of low-
level wind shear and mountain wave turbulence across North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana. -IG

The KWYS TAF will not be issued until airport operations resume
next spring.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  29  49  25 /  20  10   0   0
CTB  46  28  47  21 /  20  10   0   0
HLN  49  28  46  24 /  60   0   0   0
BZN  50  21  44  18 /  60  10   0   0
WYS  39  11  37   9 /  90   0   0   0
DLN  45  19  43  19 /  50   0   0   0
HVR  52  26  47  19 /  60  40  10   0
LWT  50  27  45  22 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Cascade County
below 5000ft-East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western
Toole, and Central Pondera-Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-
Eastern Toole and Liberty-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-
Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky
Mountain Front-Western and Central Chouteau County.

High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Saturday for Bears Paw
Mountains and Southern Blaine-Fergus County below 4500ft-Hill
County-Northern Blaine County.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for
Northwest Beaverhead County.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls