209
FXUS65 KTFX 261447
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
747 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Dense freezing fog will continue along the Hi-Line this morning
   before dissipating with a chance it could redevelop overnight
   tonight.

 - A quick moving band of snow may impact the morning commute
   across Southwest Montana including Bozeman Pass.

 - More widespread moderate to heavy snow is possible across
   north-central Montana Thursday through Friday.

 - Coldest air of the season so far will arrive this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...

Light snow affecting areas across central and southwest MT as far
north as Great Falls and Lewistown will end fron west to east
late this morning with additional accumulation of an inch or more
mainly confined to the Big/Little Belt and Bridger ranges. Even
areas with minor snow accumulation have seen slick roads this
morning, which should improve as snow ends and temperatures rise
above freezing by noon. Dense fog along along the H-line has seen
some improvement to visibility at Havre and Chinook with some
additional improvement expected later this morning, however low
clouds are likely to persist there with fog redeveloping tonight.
Hoenisch

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 427 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Dense freezing fog will continue through the morning along portions
of the Hi-Line east of Cut Bank with reduced visibilities and slick
roads being the main concerns. A brief shortwave moving through
the area will bring snow showers to the mountains and portions of
southwest Montana through the morning before clearing out by the
mid afternoon.

The next wave moves into the region late Thursday and phases with
additional energy dropping south from Canada while tracking
across the area Thursday night and Friday. Snow looks to develop
across primarily north-central MT ahead of the initial wave by
Thursday afternoon and increases Thursday night as the additional
energy arrives with snow spreading across most of area late
Thursday night through Friday morning. A colder airmass and strong
surface high pressure surges southward from AB Thursday night
through Friday morning bringing gusty north winds and falling
temperatures with the northerly flow supporting snow through
Friday afternoon in upslope favored locations near the central and
southwest MT mountain rages.

Cold high pressure settles over the region this weekend for mainly
dry conditions with afternoon temperatures in the teens and
twenties and overnight lows in the single digits above/below zero.
Looking ahead to next week, the area remains under cold cyclonic
NW flow between deep/large scale troughing in central Canada and
ridging in the Eastern Pacific. There is still some significant
differences among the various model ensembles in the exact
position of these features and smaller scale disturbances moving
through the NW flow. Overall cool to below average temperatures
are likely to persist, though some moderation in temperatures is
possible with additional chances for snow associated with
disturbances moving through. Hoenisch/thor


 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Freezing Fog Along the Hi-Line:

Dense freezing fog will continue across the Hi-Line through the
morning before lifting in the afternoon. Currently hi-res model
guidance shows the potential for redevelopment tonight into
Thursday morning in the same areas east of I-15. One of the
primary concerns will be that the freezing fog may lead to a glaze
of ice on some surfaces creating slippery sidewalks and roads.


Snow Today:

Snow showers will generally be confined to the mountains although
some light snow at lower elevations in southwest Montana, is
possible through the morning. One of the main concerns will be
along Bozeman Pass as the heaviest snow is expected to hit right
around the morning commute. Brief periods of moderate to heavy
snow are possible which may reduce visibility and cause slippery
conditions along the pass.

Additionally, periods of moderate snow are possible in the Little
Belts including Kings Hill Pass with similar impacts of reduced
visibility and slippery roads possible. In general this snow is
expected to clear out by the middle of the afternoon with a brief
lull in activity before the main system arrives Thursday
afternoon.


Snow and Cold Thursday and Beyond:

There is growing confidence in at least moderate impacts across
portions of north-central Montana Thursday and Friday along the
Northern Rockies into the western half of the northern plains. 4
to 8 inches at lower elevations highlighted in the current Winter
Storm Watch is possible with up to 10 inches possible at higher
elevations in the Northern Rockies.

Although snow amounts have continued to trend upwards across the
rest of north-central Montana, there is not enough confidence to
warrant adding it to the Winter Storm Watch. Should future model
updates show greater probabilities further east then the watch may
need to be expanded at a later time.  -thor

&&

.AVIATION...
26/12Z TAF Period

Light to moderate snow continues to overspread portions of North
Central through Southwest Montana this morning as an upper level
disturbance moves overhead, most notably along and southwest of a
KCTB to KLWT line and northeast of a KDLN to KWYS line.
Predominately IFR/MVFR conditions will occur within this area of
snow through 15-18z; however, temporary LIFR conditions can`t be
ruled out at times. Additionally, fog continues to persist within
the Milk River Valley, with this fog expected to gradually
dissipated across the KHVR terminal through 18z but IFR/MVFR CIGS
may linger longer. Confidence in these low CIGS persisting over
the KHVR terminal was too low at this time to prevail, but it
should be noted that there is the potential for these CIGS to
linger through much of the 2612/2712 TAF period. Mountains will be
obscured for much of the next 24 hours. - Moldan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  24  36  19 /  60   0  50  80
CTB  38  15  31  12 /  10   0  50  90
HLN  41  27  41  21 /  60  10  40  60
BZN  41  23  44  24 /  80  10  20  30
WYS  33  17  38  20 /  80  10  30  20
DLN  44  27  48  26 /  20  10  10  10
HVR  29  10  28  15 /   0   0  20  90
LWT  38  22  39  16 /  80  10  30  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for Eastern
Toole and Liberty-Hill County-Northern Blaine County.

Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
afternoon for Cascade County below 5000ft-East Glacier Park
Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-
Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole and Liberty-
Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky
Mountain Front-Western and Central Chouteau County.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM MST this morning for Big
Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-
Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald
Pass.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls