726
FXUS65 KTFX 072135
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
235 PM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - It will be windy tonight along the Rocky Mountain Front and
   Monday afternoon/evening through Tuesday it will be windy
   across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana.

 - There will be daily rounds of snowfall in the mountains during
   this work week with snowfall returning to the lower-elevations
   to end the work week.

 - It will be warm through the middle of the work week with cold
   temperatures to end the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:

This afternoon there is an upper-lever ridge over North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to
be warm with mostly dry weather. However Hill and Northern Blaine
Counties will be slow to warm up. This afternoon through tonight
there will be light precipitation primarily confined to the
Continental Divide. This evening through tomorrow morning due to
strong low and mid-level winds and a strong pressure gradient it
will get windy across North-central Montana with the strongest winds
along the Rocky Mountain Front. The upper-level ridge will remain
over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on Monday
which will allow temperatures to warm up some more with dry weather
at lower-elevations and mountain snow. Due to an increasing pressure
gradient combined with strong low and mid-level winds, winds will
begin to increase Monday afternoon and evening. On Tuesday the upper-
level ridge flattens before another upper-level ridge builds in
Tuesday afternoon. This will bring precipitation chances to the
mountains of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana
Tuesday. Due to a strong pressure gradient combined with strong low
and mid-level winds it will be windy across North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana on Tuesday.

On Wednesday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana this will allow the warm
temperatures to continue. Wednesday evening an upper-level shortwave
associated with an Arctic Cold Front will move through and bring
precipitation chances to the area with windy conditions. On Thursday
there is northwest flow aloft over North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana. This combined with the Arctic Cold Front will
bring cooler temperatures, precipitation chances, and windy
conditions to the area on Thursday. The coldest temperatures will be
in North-central Montana particularly along the Hi-Line. On Friday
northwest flow aloft remains over North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana. This will keep the cool/cold temperatures over
the area with precipitation chances. On Saturday an upper-level
ridge will build in over North-central, Central, and Southwestern
Montana. This will allow temperatures to slowly warm back up with
mostly dry weather. -IG

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Tonight through Monday morning there is greater than a 60% chance
for wind gusts of 75 mph or greater along the Rocky Mountain
Front. Due to this probability being a little on the low side for
a warning plus low confidence in a mountain wave to bring the wind
gusts down, a High Wind Warning was not issued for this area from
tonight through Monday morning but there is a high likelihood of
wind gusts in excess of 60 mph along the Rocky Mountain Front
tonight through Monday morning.

On Monday there is greater than a 70% chance for wind gusts of 55
mph or greater along the plains west of I-15. On Monday and Tuesday
along the Rocky Mountain Front there is greater than a 80% chance
for wind gusts of 75 mph or greater. On Tuesday there is greater
than a 50% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater across most of
North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. There is greater
than a 70% chance for sustained winds of 40 mph or greater along the
plains west of I-15, in the Madison River Valley, and in the Geyser
vicinity. High wind watches remain in effect for North-central and
Central Montana and the Madison River Valley for Monday
afternoon/evening through Tuesday morning.

On Monday there is a 20 - 40% chance for high temperatures of 45
degrees or greater across most of the lower-elevations of North-
central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Tuesday and Wednesday
there is greater than a 50% chance for high temperatures of 45
degrees or greater across most of the lower-elevations of North-
central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. From now through Monday
morning there is greater than a 75% chance for 2 inches of snow or
greater along the Rocky Mountain Front. From Monday morning to
Tuesday morning there is greater than a 60% chance for 4 inches of
snow or greater along much of the Rocky Mountain Front. From Tuesday
morning through Wednesday morning there is greater than a 50% chance
for 4 inches of snowfall or greater along the Continental Divide. -IG

&&

.AVIATION...
07/18Z TAF Period

West-northwesterly flow aloft gradually increases through the TAF
period with VFR conditions prevailing beneath variable mid to
high level cloud-cover. Mountain wave turbulence will increase
later today and tonight with the strengthening flow across the
Rockies and some instances of low level wind shear are possible
later this evening and overnight before the transition to stronger
surface winds develops Monday. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  48  40  52 /  10  10  30  30
CTB  28  45  32  44 /   0  10  30  30
HLN  31  49  39  53 /  40  30  50  60
BZN  27  47  37  54 /  30  10  20  50
WYS  20  33  26  38 /  80  40  70  90
DLN  28  46  37  51 /  30  10  20  40
HVR  23  43  31  46 /  10  10  40  50
LWT  28  43  32  47 /  30  10  20  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning
for Cascade County below 5000ft-East Glacier Park Region-Eastern
Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Eastern Pondera and
Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Gates of the Mountains-
Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky
Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.

High Wind Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Big Belt, Bridger and
Castle Mountains-Fergus County below 4500ft-Hill County-Judith
Basin County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-
Madison River Valley-Meagher County Valleys-Northern Blaine
County-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Western and Central Chouteau
County.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls