804
FXUS65 KTFX 021742
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1042 AM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds still possible today, mostly this afternoon.

- Much cooler today, with near normal temperatures expected much
  of this week.

- Some passing light rain or snow showers this week, but nothing
  significant expected at this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
/Issued 818 AM MST Sun Nov 2 2025/

A moderate to strong westerly flow aloft continues across the
Northern Rockies and MT this morning with the core of stronger
winds translating east of the area later this afternoon. An E-W
oriented Pacific cold front, now south of the I90 corridor will
continue to sag south to the ID/WY border by mid-day with a few
showers, primarily occurring behind (north) of the slowly
southward shifting front. While stronger surface winds have
subsided across most of the area, daytime surface heating and
mixing will allow for the redevelopment of gusty west winds across
most of the area later this morning into this afternoon before
winds decrease again this evening. There is still some potential
for a window of stronger wind gusts between roughly 11am and 2pm
when the mixed layer deepens enough to tap mid-level flow still
around 40-50kt. While confidence in widespread gusts to this
magnitude being translated to the surface is low, will keep the
High Wind Warning in place for now and re-evaluate early this
afternoon for a possible early ending if stronger winds fail to
materialize. Hoenisch

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 818 AM MST Sun Nov 2 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:
The main high wind event is not occurring exactly as forecast.
There are strong winds within 1000 feet of the surface in many
areas of North Central MT, they just are not mixing down. Some
higher elevations along the Rocky Mountain Front have gusted in
the 70 to 80 mph range west of the divide earlier tonight, but
east of the divide, the strong winds are slow to mix down. That
being said, there is still the potential the strong winds could
mix down this afternoon, thus the high wind warning will continue.
Otherwise, cooler air is slowly moving into the CWA. Expect
afternoon temperatures today to be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler
than yesterday.

For Monday through Saturday...a westerly flow aloft will reside
over much of the work week, with some weak ridging/troughing
developing by next weekend. Weak weather disturbance are expected
to move from west to east across the CWA almost daily over the
next few days. Thus, there is small chances for light
precipitation over portions of the CWA almost daily for the next
several days. Again, precipitation amounts look light, but do
expect rain/snow at all elevations, as the time of the day will
have an impact on what type of precipitation falls. There is the
potential for another short windy period over the western portions
of North Central MT next Thu into Fri.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
There is still an 80 percent chance of wind gusts over 55 mph
across many of the windier locations over North Central MT this
afternoon. Additionally, some periods of strong winds are possible
around Ennis, Norris Hill and the Bridger mountain range, thus the
high wind warning will continue for now for all of these areas.
Should wind speeds look to remain below warning criteria,
portions of the high wind warning could be cancelled early.

Looking ahead to Friday, the NBM is now showing over a 70 percent
chance for high winds in the Cut Bank area.

The probability for 2 inches of snow over the next few days is
really limited to the Rocky Mountain Front and the mountains
around West Yellowstone. Overall, the probability for 2 inches of
snow in most cases is less than 60 percent at this time. Thus the
chances for any significant snowfall this week in our area is on
the low side. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
02/18Z TAF Period

West to northwest winds have begun to increase as they mix down
across the North-Central MT plains late this morning, and will
continue throughout the afternoon. Winds gusts will generally stay
between 30kt to 40kts, but a few brief 45kt to 50kt gusts can`t
be ruled out. Winds decrease this evening and throughout the
night. Cloud cover increases Monday morning with precipitation
mainly in the mountains. There`s a 20% chance for a light
rain/non accumulating snow shower in North-Central MT Monday
morning, but uncertainty in the timing and location was to great
to put the mention in the TAF. There`s a 60% chance for IFR
ceilings in KWYS Monday morning. -Wilson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  31  48  36 /   0   0  10  30
CTB  47  27  45  28 /   0   0  10  20
HLN  51  27  49  35 /  20   0  10  50
BZN  54  24  52  35 /  40   0   0  30
WYS  48  24  51  32 /  40  10  10  20
DLN  54  24  55  36 /  10   0   0  20
HVR  56  24  50  29 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  51  25  49  32 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Bears Paw
Mountains and Southern Blaine-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle
Mountains-Cascade County below 5000ft-East Glacier Park Region-
Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Eastern
Pondera and Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Fergus
County below 4500ft-Hill County-Judith Basin County and Judith
Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Madison River Valley-
Northern Blaine County-Northern High Plains-Snowy and Judith
Mountains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-
Western and Central Chouteau County.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls