995
FXUS65 KTFX 132154
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
254 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Strong winds continue along the Rocky Mountain Front this
   afternoon, spreading farther east across the plains late
   tonight into Friday.

 - Light precipitation along the Continental Divide this evening,
   spreading further east Friday and Saturday.

 - More active period with seasonable temperatures next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:

Current mesoscale analysis and satellite have shown strong winds
due to a strong mid level jet with some mountain wave activity
along the Rocky Mountain Front foothills, and a building pressure
gradient from lee troughing east of the Continental Divide. This
mid level jet is expected to expand farther east later this
evening towards the Cut Bank area, and farther east across the
plains later tonight into Friday. Strong winds are expected to
impact the Rocky Mountain Front into Friday and certain areas
along the Highway 200 corridor (particularly Judith Basin
County). Breezy to gusty winds continue during the day Friday, but
a Canadian cold front passing south look to undercut the winds a
bit Friday afternoon.

A splitting trough will bring a weaker shortwave trough to the
area later this afternoon. This will bring precipitation along
the Continental Divide this evening. The arrival of better
vorticity aloft will spread out light precipitation farther east
Friday and Saturday. Warmer temperatures through Friday morning
will keep mountain snow mainly above pass level. Falling snow
levels Friday evening and Saturday morning will allow for light
snowfall at Marias Pass, but marginal temperatures will make snow
struggle to accumulate. -Wilson

Heading into Saturday night the cutoff low off the CA coast
finally begins to lift northeastward ahead of another Pacific
trough well off the Pacific NW coastline. Uncertainty is high for
this timeframe, mainly associated with the track of this upper
level low (Quickly devolves into an open wave by Sun AM). Should
this upper low/open wave take a more easterly track, the
probability for meaningful precipitation would decrease and vice
versa. The key will be just how quickly the troughing across the
Pacific NW moves in and begins to influence the upper low off the
CA coast, which is low confidence at the moment.

Ensembles favor an active pattern next week, with the troughing
across the Pacific Northwest drifting eastward toward the Northern
Rockies into early next week. Confidence wanes in specifics, as
cluster guidance shows little consistency as to where the main
portion of the troughing will be by Tuesday. The common theme though
is that stronger troughs are further south, mainly near southern
CA/southern NV, and suggest another split troughing scenario.
Weaker, more broad troughing remains further north across the
Rockies, though is much quicker to progress eastward and exit. The
main takeaway is that temperatures look to fall at least a bit
closer to average early next week, with non-zero probabilities for
precipitation each day Monday through mid-week. -AM

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Current observations are lining up with the forecast in peak
winds along the Rocky Mountain Front this afternoon. Models still
show this 65-70kt 700mb jet shifting east towards the Cut Bank
area this evening, and a 60-65kt jet along the Highway 200
corridor late tonight through Friday morning. Main changes to the
wind forecasts was adding in Judith Basin County into the High
Wind Warning late tonight into Friday. Higher-res guidance shows
a 30-60% chance for 58 mph wind gusts along there late tonight
into Friday morning. Although probabilities are on the lower end,
the strong winds aloft combined with models showing some lee
troughing/slight pressure gradient building in give a nudge
towards the more aggressive solutions in some 60 mph gusts.
Another area was considered for Cascade County, but confidence for
scattered to widespread high winds weren`t high enough to issue a
warning. Though, it is something to be monitored. Models have
been trending in an earlier end time to the peak winds Friday as
that Canadian Front cuts through. If trends continue this way
then an earlier cancellation time will be warranted. -Wilson

&&

.AVIATION...
13/18Z TAF Period

Winds will be on the increase across North Central and
Southwestern Montana as an area of increased mid and upper level
winds make their way into the area today. Expect winds to gust to
30 or 40 kts across the plains terminals this afternoon, with
gusts to 20 or 30 kts in the southwestern valleys. After sunset,
expect LLWS to increase in severity and areal coverage as surface
winds weaken (especially in the southwest valleys) even as winds
aloft continue to strengthen. A few light rain showers will be
possible late tonight and tomorrow morning, but VFR conditions
should prevail. Ludwig

The KWYS TAF will not be issued until airport operations resume
next spring.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  59  43  58 /  10  30  10   0
CTB  43  51  31  51 /  20  40  20  10
HLN  45  58  39  57 /  30  60  20  10
BZN  41  59  34  56 /  10  50  20   0
WYS  31  46  29  45 /  20  80  30  10
DLN  40  56  32  55 /  20  40   0   0
HVR  46  59  29  54 /  10  30  20  10
LWT  48  60  34  56 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Friday for East Glacier Park
Region-Northern High Plains.

High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Friday for Southern High Plains-
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Friday for
Judith Basin County and Judith Gap.

High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST Friday
for Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls