252
FXUS65 KTFX 221718
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1018 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Patchy valley fog in the valleys of Southwest Montana may be
   locally dense on Saturday morning.

 - Gusty winds continue through the weekend, along with above
   normal temperatures and dry overall conditions.

 - A cold front will bring falling temperatures on Monday, along
   with another period of strong winds and increasing
   precipitation chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
/Issued 849 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025/

Not too many changes were made to the forecast. Winds will pick up
along the Rocky Front this afternoon as a mid level jet builds in.
Hi-res guidance shows higher end gusts peaking between 50-60mph
along the immediate foothills of the Rocky Mountain Front.
Generally a dry day today, but can`t rule out a few
sprinkles/virga underneath the chinook arch along the Rocky
Mountain Front later today. -Wilson

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 849 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Zonal flow aloft over the Northern Rockies will help to maintain
above normal temperatures and windy conditions across Southwest
through North Central Montana through the weekend. The warmest
conditions through this timeframe will occur over the plains of
Central and North Central Montana where gusty downsloping winds will
contribute to additional warming and drying. Overall dry conditions
can be expected through the weekend, with increasing precipitation
chance along the Continental Divide from Sunday afternoon as an upper
level shortwave begins to dig into the Pacific Northwest and Pacific
moisture is advected northeastward over the Northern Rockies within
a region of warm air advection.

By Monday the aforementioned upper level shortwave will slide
eastward and over the Northern Rockies, with an attendant cold front
diving southeast from Alberta during the morning through early
afternoon hours. Windy conditions and increasing precipitation
chances will accompany this upper level disturbance and cold front,
along with falling temperatures through the day on Monday. Heaviest
precipitation during the day and overnight hours on Monday is
expected to fall in the mountains. Quasi-zonal to northwest flow
aloft settles in over the Northern Rockies for much of the remainder
of the work week/Thanksgiving, with near to below normal
temperatures and daily chances for rain/snow showers across lower
elevations and mountain snow, especially along the Continental
Divide. - Moldan

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Accumulating Snow from Sunday evening through Monday night...

ECMWF EFIs continue to support the potential for a climatologically
unusual snow event throughout the period, particularly along the
Continental Divide north of the Montana Hwy 200 corridor where EFI
values range between 0.5 to 0.7. NBM4.3 probabilities for snowfall
in excess of 4" have changed very little over the past 24 hours,
with the highest values in excess of a 70% chance still residing
over northern portions of the Southern Rocky Mountain and all of the
East Glacier Park Region. Additionally the probability for 6" or
more of snow is in excess of an 80% chance for Marias Pass, with
even a 30% chance for 12" or more of snow. At this time the heaviest
period of snow looks to fall during the afternoon and early evening
hours on Monday, with relatively warm ground temperatures likely to
inhibit snowfall accumulations initially during the daylight hours
on Monday.

Strong Winds on Monday...

Confidence in high winds occurring with and following the passage of
the upper level disturbance and attendant cold front has decreased
over the past 24 hours, but NBM4.3 probabilities do still indicate
the potential for gusts in excess of 48kts. Latest probabilities for
gusts in excess of 48kts now hold at between a 10-30% chance for
most locations along and north of the I-90 corridor, which has been
a 20-40% chance reduction as compared to 24 hours ago. None-the-less
the passage of the upper level wave and surface cold front is still
expected to occur during peak mixing hours, which does support a
better window for the transport of higher momentum to surface.
Additionally, rain/snow showers along and in wake of the font may
also contribute in bringing stronger winds aloft to the surface. We
will continue to monitor this event for future wind highlights, but
for now we will withhold issuing any High Wind Watches given low
probabilistic support.

Late Week System...

Ensemble guidance continues to support a large scale pattern shift
to colder and snowier conditions across the Northern Rockies;
however, significant differences between these ensemble also casts
doubt on the arrival of the coldest temperatures and precipitation.
Those with post Thanksgiving travel plans should continue to monitor
future forecast as impacts to travel, most notably over mountain
passes, are likely at some point between Friday and next Sunday. -
Moldan


&&

.AVIATION...
22/18Z TAF Period

While some mid and upper level clouds will remain over the area
over the next 24 hours, expect VFR conditions to prevail with
winds steady as well. Winds will generally be out of the south
across Southwestern Montana with winds slightly stronger across
the plains with a more westerly component. Ludwig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  43  56  38 /   0  10  10  20
CTB  49  38  52  29 /  10  10  20  30
HLN  49  29  51  31 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  50  22  51  29 /   0   0   0  20
WYS  40  17  43  23 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  49  25  50  25 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  52  33  57  31 /   0   0  10  30
LWT  54  34  58  33 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls