745
FNUS75 KTFX 190909
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Toehead Rx...Montana DNRC
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
309 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on June 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Southwesterly flow aloft will help to support unsettled conditions
through the remainder of the work week, with daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms, mainly from noon through the early
evening hours. Friday has the highest chance for wetting rainfall
across the incident area, with a 35% chance of a tenth of an inch
or more. High temperatures through Friday will be near to
slightly below normal, with terrain driven winds through the
afternoon hours on Thursday. Drier and warming conditions are then
expected over the weekend, with high temperatures on Sunday
climbing into the mid-80s to low 90s.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................2.
Max temperature.....64-69.
Min humidity........32-37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming upslope/up-valley 3 to 7 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.


.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....37-42.
Max humidity........82-87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Downslope/down-valley up to 5 mph. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the evening.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 5 mph.
Haines Index........


.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....73-78.
Min humidity........25-30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming upslope/up-valley 3 to 7 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.


.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................2.
Min temperature.....46-51.
Max humidity........83-88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds up to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 10 mph.
Haines Index........

$$

Forecaster...Moldan
Requested by...Charlie Ewart
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2416376.0/TFX
.DELDT 06/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL charlie.ewart@mt.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov