327
FXUS63 KTOP 202035
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
235 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain spreads north late this evening and overnight, tapering off
during the day Friday. Widespread amounts of around an inch.

- Near to slightly above average temperatures continue through the
first part of next week, with another rain opportunity Sunday into
Monday.

- A more notable cool-down arrives just prior to Thanksgiving,
  though precipitation chances remain low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Water vapor imagery shows a pair of deep upper lows over the
southwest, with the lead one lifting northeast towards the central
Plains. In advance, deep moisture is streaming north. Surface
observations show the warm front is still stuck across southeast KS,
and is only slowly inching north. Across our area north of the warm
front, easterly winds are keeping cooler temperatures locked in
place, even though morning fog and low stratus has finally begun to
clear. As the low continues to lift northeast this evening,
widespread rain (and likely some more mist/fog) will move north into
the area. Some very limited elevated instability should even exist,
which should help rainfall rates and may even be enough for a few
rumbles of thunder. Overall, expecting around an inch of rain for
most locations, especially along and south of I-70 where that weak
instability should be present.

Expecting showers to taper off late morning and afternoon tomorrow
as the frontogenetical band lifts north of our area. Temperatures
remain cool given the widespread low clouds around. Drier and
slightly warmer conditions return for Saturday and into Sunday as
shortwave ridging builds in ahead of the second upper low. This low
will lift northeast late Sunday into Monday. Similar to today, we`ll
see widespread rain chances return as this occurs, though amounts
will be dependent on the overall low track.

Confidence remains high in a stronger cold front moving through late
Tuesday as deeper troughing evolves over the central CONUS. Still
some differences in specifics, but overall expecting northwest flow
to set up Wednesday into Thanksgiving day. This will keep cool
temperatures in place for a few days, but also limit precipitation
chances. Can`t yet rule out some light rain or snow with any well
place low-amplitude wave, but overall the chances for impactful
precipitation look to stay low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1113 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Model guidance is handling the current fog and low stratus
very poorly. However with the warm front still well to our south and
light east winds at the surface, think the IFR to LIFR ceilings and
visibilities 1-2 miles will continue through the afternoon. There
may be a brief break just ahead of an area of rain as it moves north
into the area overnight, but lower ceilings and visibilities should
move back in with the rain. After that, doesn`t look like we`ll see
much improvement until the very end of the period mid-day tomorrow.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese