984
FXUS63 KTOP 231724
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1124 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog, including areas of dense fog, continue this morning. A
  Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for portions of east central
  and northeast Kansas through 10 AM.

- Rain chances increase this evening and overnight, continuing
  through the day Monday.

- A cold front moves through on Tuesday, bringing in cooler air
  for Wednesday and Thanksgiving. Expect dry, but chilly
  conditions on Thanksgiving Day with morning lows in the 20 and
  afternoon highs in the 40s.

- Chances for precipitation return next weekend, along with
  another shot of cold air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Mid-level ridging is building overhead early this morning as a
closed upper low gradually slides northeast across the southwest
CONUS. Surface high pressure controls the region and light surface
winds and clear skies have allowed for some patchy/areas of fog to
develop. The main area is across southeast and east-central Kansas,
but another area is noted on satellite extending from near Sabetha
to Concordia. Dense fog is not widespread currently thanks in part
to elevated winds off the surface keeping the boundary layer just
mixed enough. These winds are progged to weaken and could allow for
dense fog to become more widespread over the next few hours. Still
some uncertainty in timing and location of dense fog; will continue
the Dense Fog Advisory for now and monitor trends through the early
morning hours.

After any morning fog burns off, expect mostly sunny skies through
the afternoon before cloud cover and precipitation chances
increase this evening and overnight as the aforementioned closed
low ejects northeast across the Plains. Showers may be more
isolated to scattered initially before increasing in coverage,
becoming more widely scattered into Monday. Instability is
rather weak, but HREF members do depict some elevated
instability that could generate a few rumbles of thunder. A lack
of deep moisture keeps PWATs around 0.75-1", resulting in lower
precipitation totals compared to what was observed last Friday.
Most locations will see rainfall of 0.25" or less, although
several members of the HREF show a higher swath of 0.25-0.5"
across east-central Kansas where rain will be falling for a
longer period with slightly higher moisture content. Even so,
chances of exceeding 0.5" of rainfall in this area are only
around 30 percent.

A strong trough diving southeast across the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest will shunt a cold front through the area during the
day Tuesday. FROPA is anticipated to be dry, but northwest winds
become gusty behind the front, with gusts of 25-35 MPH ushering
in colder air for Wednesday. After highs in the 50s Tuesday,
temperatures fall rapidly Tuesday night, reaching near or below
freezing by Wednesday morning. Persistent cold-air advection
through the day will limit warming with highs only in the low
40s. Another cold, but dry day is expected on Thanksgiving with
morning lows in the 20s and afternoon highs in the 40s.
Northwest flow aloft gives way to more zonal flow by week`s end.
Ensembles favor a western CONUS trough setting up this weekend
with a strong cold front progged to move through the area at
some point. Details are unknown this far out, but another shot
of cold air is looking more likely for the end of November into
early December. Precipitation chances also increase during this
timeframe, with at least a low potential for some wintry
precipitation. There have already been some drastic changes from
one model run to the next with this system, so stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Lingering cigs and fog near FOE finally breaking up this hour.
Expect light winds and VFR conditions through late evening
before first round of clouds and precip approach from the west
and drop into MVFR and eventually IFR as the first rainband
comes through. IFR conditions likely to develop and continue
into next TAF cycle. Winds remain southerly through the TAF
period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ040-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Craven