


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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483 FXUS63 KTOP 181857 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 157 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong cold front moves through the area today with northwest winds gusting at 30-40 MPH behind the front this afternoon and evening. - Feeling more like Fall behind the front starting Sunday and continuing through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 A cold front was just entering north central Kansas early this afternoon. Ahead of the front, a mid-level wave was riding along the KS/OK border. Lift and moisture associated with the low will likely move far enough north to bring some showers and potentially an isolated thunderstorm to southeast portions of the area (generally south of I-35). Some sprinkles are also possible in the wake of the cold front with upper-level ascent and some steeper mid-level lapse rates moving through the cold air advection. With the stronger push of cold air and steep lapse rates, wind gusts around 35 mph are possible late this afternoon and evening. Surface high pressure builds in tonight. Wind speeds will diminish and cloud cover clear. This should lead to a rather cool night, with overnight lows in the 30s possible across north central Kansas. Cooler, more Fall-like weather will hang on through the week. Another cold front moves through on Monday, but it appears this frontal passage will be dry with moisture remaining well of to the south and east. The next chance of rain may not arrive until the end of the week as models have been consistent in depicting a closed low moving into the central Plains sometime Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. A strong cold front will move through around 22z today. This will bring a sharp wind shift out of the northwest and gusty wind around 30 knots for the late afternoon and evening. Wind speeds should begin to diminish after 06z. Some light showers are possible following shortly behind the frontal passage, but confidence in these materializing and impacting the terminals is too low at this point to mention anything in the TAF. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jones AVIATION...Jones