483
FXUS63 KTOP 181857
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
157 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong cold front moves through the area today with
  northwest winds gusting at 30-40 MPH behind the front this
  afternoon and evening.

- Feeling more like Fall behind the front starting Sunday and
  continuing through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

A cold front was just entering north central Kansas early this
afternoon. Ahead of the front, a mid-level wave was riding along
the KS/OK border. Lift and moisture associated with the low will
likely move far enough north to bring some showers and
potentially an isolated thunderstorm to southeast portions of
the area (generally south of I-35). Some sprinkles are also
possible in the wake of the cold front with upper-level ascent
and some steeper mid-level lapse rates moving through the cold
air advection. With the stronger push of cold air and steep
lapse rates, wind gusts around 35 mph are possible late this
afternoon and evening. Surface high pressure builds in tonight.
Wind speeds will diminish and cloud cover clear. This should
lead to a rather cool night, with overnight lows in the 30s
possible across north central Kansas. Cooler, more Fall-like
weather will hang on through the week. Another cold front moves
through on Monday, but it appears this frontal passage will be
dry with moisture remaining well of to the south and east. The
next chance of rain may not arrive until the end of the week as
models have been consistent in depicting a closed low moving
into the central Plains sometime Thursday into Friday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. A strong cold front
will move through around 22z today. This will bring a sharp wind
shift out of the northwest and gusty wind around 30 knots for
the late afternoon and evening. Wind speeds should begin to
diminish after 06z. Some light showers are possible following
shortly behind the frontal passage, but confidence in these
materializing and impacting the terminals is too low at this
point to mention anything in the TAF.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Jones