457
FXUS63 KTOP 100542
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1242 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers/weak storms possible across east-
central Kansas early Friday morning.

- Above-average temperatures continue into the weekend as highs top
out in the low 80s.

- Active weather pattern returns next week bringing more
  rain/storm chances and cooler weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Mid-level ridging still dominates the central region of the US as
water vapor imagery shows a larger trough over the western Pacific
coast and weak troughing across the eastern US. Surface and low-
level flow has shifted back to the south across Kansas, helping to
advect 55-60 degree dewpoints back to the north. This had led to
some low cloud cover keeping areas across east-central Kansas from
warming much this morning. Much of that cloud coverage has scattered
out with sunshine returning and diurnal mixing deepening. These two
things should help temperatures top out in the mid 70s across
eastern Kansas and upper 70s and low 80s further into central Kansas
where cloud coverage cleared a few hours sooner.

Later this evening and into early Friday morning, a 30-35 knot LLJ
strengthens across eastern Kansas with the nose setting up near far
northeastern and east-central Kansas by 3-4 AM. With some moisture,
elevated instability and lift from the LLJ, some isolated to
scattered elevated showers/storms will become possible (20-40%).
Chances should continue until about 8-9 AM as low level wanes.
The remainder of the day will see winds shifting towards the
northeast as a weak boundary moves across the area and
temperatures again warming into the upper 70s and low 80s.
Easterly winds and high cloud cover advecting in from the west
continues into Saturday morning. Cloud cover hanging on into the
early afternoon hours should be enough to keep temperatures
again in the upper 70s and low 80s be the afternoon.

The warmest day this weekend looks to be Sunday. Winds return to the
south, advecting in warm air as ample sunshine pushes temperatures
towards the mid 80s by the afternoon. By Sunday evening, our next
large storm system comes out of the west, helping to increase our
rain/storm chances across eastern Kansas. A surface boundary will
push in from the west Sunday evening into Monday morning that will
increase PoPs along the surface boundary. Guidance does not depict a
ton of instability with this system at this time, so not expecting
much in terms of strong to severe storms, just showers. The
remainder of the week will see the upper ridge try to slide further
south into Texas. To its north, an active jet stream pattern will
bring several mid-level waves across the central Plains that
increase PoPs. That said, PoPs at this time remain on the lower side
(15-20% at the highest) due to low confidence in exact location of
where precipitation will set up.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR conditions prevail. Main thing to watch is scattered showers
and isolated TS, which are currently in southern IA and forecast
to develop into northern MO and far eastern KS. Better forcing
is northeast of terminals and guidance is mixed on whether
anything develops far enough west to impact TAF sites. Decided
to keep mention out of TAFs for now, but if any precip does move
through, it would be most probable at TOP/FOE for a brief time
between 11-13Z. Otherwise, expect southerly winds to shift to
the north/northeast behind a weak boundary around 17-18Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Picha