841
FXUS63 KTOP 032046
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
246 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light precipitation possible across east-central Kansas through
  this evening.

- Cold on Thursday with morning wind chills in the single digits and
  highs in the 20s.

- Chances (10-25%) for rain/snow return Saturday night into
  Sunday, although only light amounts are currently expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Mid-level, quasi-zonal flow resides across the Central Plains this
afternoon with a positively-tilted shortwave over the Desert
Southwest. The surface cold front has made its way through the
entire area with breezy northwest winds ushering in a colder
airmass. Low-cloud coverage has increased behind the boundary and
modest ascent in a deeper cloud deck across east-central Kansas
could generate some light precipitation this afternoon and evening.
Initially, rain or drizzle is favored, but a cooling column could
support a mix of snow later this evening before drier air works into
the area. Cloud coverage will decrease from north to south through
the evening, although there is uncertainty in how fast this occurs.
Currently seeing clearing of low clouds closer to the Nebraska
border, but high clouds are increasing from the southwest. It seems
more likely than not to have at least a several hour period of
clearing where good radiational cooling will drop temperatures in
the teens and single digits. However, if clouds hang on longer, lows
could be warmer than forecast and hold in the 20s. The record low
temperature at Topeka could be in jeopardy; refer to the Climate
Section below for details.

Surface high pressure controls the region tomorrow, leading to a
chilly day with highs only reaching into the 20s. Surface winds
become more southerly by Friday, aiding in bumping highs into the
upper 30s to mid 40s, still below climatological norms. Northwest
flow aloft persists into early next week with waves of energy
passing through the mean flow. Guidance continues to highlight the
Saturday night-Sunday wave as the most likely to produce some
precipitation across the area. Ensembles are coming into better
agreement with this wave and 30-50% of LREF members have measurable
precipitation across the forecast area during this timeframe. NBM is
slowly catching on, but its PoPs remain lower than the ensembles
suggest. PoPs may increase with subsequent runs if this signal
remains consistent. Thermodynamic profiles support a mix of rain and
snow depending on timing and location of the wave, but precipitation
amounts are favored to be minor at this time. Temperatures fall
again on Sunday behind this system before moderating into the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

SCT to BKN MVFR cigs have made their way overhead at terminals
and are expected to hold through the daytime hours. VFR conditions
return between 00-03z this evening, with uncertainty in exact
timing of low cigs scattering out. North winds of 10-12kts with
gusts around 20kts will continue through the afternoon before
weakening this evening and becoming southerly near the end of
the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Updated at 246 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Record Low Temperatures for Dec 4...

           Current Record   Forecast

Topeka      8, set in 1902     11
Concordia  -2, set in 1886     10

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan
CLIMATE...Poage/Flanagan