036
FXUS63 KTOP 022236
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
436 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A series of weak fronts will bring wind shifts to the area,
 but likely no rain.

-Comfortable afternoon temperatures are expected throughout the
 upcoming workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Pleasant fall conditions are anticipated for much of this forecast
period, beginning today. Surface high pressure sits southeast of the
area this afternoon. Breezy south winds on the northwest side
of the ridge axis have bumped temps up into the mid/upper 50s
with sunny skies. The first in a series of weak surface
boundaries will move through the CWA tonight, shifting winds to
the north/northeast. Temperatures dip into mid/upper 30s tonight
but recover nicely into the mid 60s tomorrow afternoon as an
upper level ridge expands northward. Tuesday looks to be the
warmest day of the week with a WAA pattern taking temps into the
low 70s.

Subsequent surface boundaries will move southward through the area
every other night with the next one expected late Tuesday night,
followed by another Thursday night. Despite the frequency of
boundaries, there will not be much difference to sensible conditions
day-to-day. High pressure follows each front, along with quick wind
shifts to the north. Thus, high temperatures will fluctuate up and
down slightly each day through the workweek, but will mainly stay in
the 60s. Precip chances remain low (less than 10%) with each
passing front due to limited time for moisture advection and
weak ascent with each passing boundary. A stronger, more polar
based front could impact the area next weekend, although model
spread in temperatures is quite high at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 436 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

VFR conditions should persist with a relatively dry airmass in
place. The 12Z HREF puts about a 10% chance for FG along the
river valley. With forecast soundings keeping some mixing in the
top of the boundary layer and none of the operational solutions
developing any visibility restrictions, will not include FG at
TOP. However there does look to be a 4 to 6 hour window for wind
shear ahead of the surface front thanks to a 45KT low level jet,
mainly between 03Z and 08Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Wolters