223
FXUS63 KTOP 030904
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
304 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Turning sharply colder again by this evening behind a cold front.
Wind chills fall to near zero for Thursday morning.

- A few flurries possible today along the cold front, but not
expecting any accumulation.

- Temperatures warm some for the weekend and early next week,
  but stay below average. Only a few low precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

The current upper pattern across the CONUS is dominated by large-
scale troughing, anchored by a deep low over Hudson Bay and strong
ridging over the northeast Pacific. Within the longer-wave trough,
an embedded shortwave is moving over the Central Rockies towards the
Plains. This shortwave is very positively tilted and is deamplifying
as a result of confluent upper flow over the eastern CONUS. As such,
conditions are not favorable for widespread precipitation to
develop. Still, as a sharp cold front steadily presses southward
today, low-level convergence should be enough for a few bands of
flurries to develop. Already seeing one of these bands out towards
central KS, with low-level dry air for now preventing anything from
reaching the ground. Not expecting any accumulation, but can`t
completely rule out a brief dusting in a few spots. This would be
most likely south of I-35 in east-central KS this evening as upper
jet dynamics briefly become a bit more supportive.

Temperatures begin to fall by mid-afternoon behind the front,
falling into the teens by late evening. Still not out of the
question that we approach record lows tomorrow morning, as a 1035 mb
high quickly moves overhead. However this would be heavily dependent
on skies clearing and allowing for ideal radiational cooling. If
clouds persist longer towards sunrise, would likely stay a solid 10
degrees warmer than if clouds can clear by 3-4 AM. Temperatures
likely stay in the 20s all day tomorrow as the surface ridge axis
remains nearby.

We`ll warm up some to start the weekend, as southerly flow returns
on the back side of the surface high. However persistent northwest
flow and eastern CONUS troughing will still keep us a bit below
average. Within this northwest flow, we`re still watching a
shortwave that will move through the midwest late Saturday into
Sunday. The GFS remains a stronger/more amplified outlier, with the
vast majority of other guidance and ensembles keeping the wave
weaker and to our north. This would keep our area dry, or at worst
bring just a few flurries to northeast Kansas. Heading into next
week, some indications are that the eastern Pacific ridge will
expand east towards the Rockies, bringing temperatures back close to
average.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1031 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

No significant changes expected from the previous forecast...VFR
conditions through mid- morning tomorrow until FROPA occurs
with a front moving in from north to south across the area.
Behind the front, expect low stratus around or above FL015 to
remain in place through the afternoon. A few gusts accompany
frontal passage lasting into the evening hours before relaxing.
Conditions for LLWS overnight tonight are looking only
marginally strong with winds increasing aloft through FL020.
Since only marginal impacts are anticipated, have not mentioned
in the forecast at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 252 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Record Low Temperatures for Dec 4...

           Current Record   Forecast

Topeka      8, set in 1902      9
Concordia  -2, set in 1886      8

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Drake
CLIMATE...Poage/Reese