328
FXUS63 KTOP 052351
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
651 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong to severe storms are expected to form in
  vicinity of a cold front early this evening. Gusty winds up
  to 60 mph and small hail are the main hazards.

- The cold front and associated scattered showers pass through
  northeast Kansas on Monday, cooling highs down to the 60s and
  70s through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Longwave troughing influences much of the western and central CONUS
this afternoon, as southwesterly flow streams through the central
plains. The cold front is oriented from northwest Kansas to south
central NE where some clouds have cleared. The front is progged to
progress southeast this evening, showers and scattered storms after
6 PM. Just ahead of the boundary, forecast soundings in north
central Kansas are consistent with increasing low level lapse rates
amid the higher cloud bases. Forecast CAPE values increase to near
1000 J/KG with decent effective shear values of 30-40 kts. The
inverted v soundings lend to highest severe probabilities of wind
gusts up to 60 mph with a lesser threat for small hail and localized
heavy rainfall. PWAT values this evening into the overnight increase
to near 1.5 inches in north central Kansas as a strengthening LLJ
develops additional showers and storms. Some training of storms
through Tuesday morning may result in localized heavy rainfall with
consensus guidance showing total QPF amounts from 0.75 to 2 inches
along and west of a line from Minneapolis to Marysville. A few
outliers are showing locally higher rainfall totals and will be
highly dependent upon the presence of an embedded vort max aloft
bringing a more organized round of heavier showers and storms into
north central areas overnight. Overall forecast rainfall amounts
have increased, especially north of I-70 and west of highway 75 with
50-70% probability of at least 1 inch or higher through Tuesday
morning.

The cool 1030mb sfc ridge settles into the area Tuesday and
Wednesday as winds weaken below 10 mph and forecast highs are 15
to 20 degrees cooler than the weekend {middle 60s to low 70s).
There remains a low chance for showers and storms Thursday and
Thursday night as a progressive shortwave trough crosses the
northern plains. Ensembles differ on the depth of the wave this
far south so confidence in measurable precip is low. Heights
build once again towards the end of the week as southerly flow
warms highs back to the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Main focus is on incoming showers and storms along a slow-moving
cold front. This boundary is currently in north central KS
extending into southeast NE. Still think MHK stands the best
chance of seeing TS as rain moves in overnight with less
instability to work with further east at TOP/FOE. Rain also
looks much less persistent at TOP/FOE. Don`t think these sites
will miss out on showers entirely, but guidance suggests rain
will probably only last a brief time within the window
highlighted in TAFs. Timing of rain as well as wind shifts is a
challenge due to the slow-moving nature of the front, so
adjustments may be made in future issuances. Expect cigs to
eventually lower to MVFR behind the main frontal boundary. Have
delayed this until later in the morning at MHK, while TOP/FOE
look to stay VFR until towards the end of this TAF period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Picha