009
FXUS63 KTOP 262001
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
201 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There may be a few flurries flying this evening across central
  Kansas. Otherwise Thanksgiving should be dry and cool.

- Rain is on track (60-90% chance) to move in by Saturday morning. It
  is expected to change to snow on Saturday as precipitation comes to
  an end with minor accumulations the most likely outcome.

- Cold weather sets in for Sunday and Monday with temperatures
  expected to remain below freezing. There is a 20-30% chance for
  light snow on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Northwest flow was noted over the Great Plains per the 20Z water
vapor imagery. At the surface high pressure was gradually weakening
with northwest winds subsiding.

The forecast through Friday is pretty straight forward save for some
flurries or sprinkles this evening. Models continue to show a band
of mid level frontogenesis and saturation moving through central KS
while dry air below 800MB remains in place. A few of the CAMs are
showing some reflectivity with this, but the GFS remains the only
model developing QPF. So the odds of measurable precipitation remain
less than 20 percent but have continued with a mention of flurries
and sprinkles. Otherwise dry weather with some passing mid level
clouds is expected through Friday thanks to continued northwest flow
and dry air over the region.

00Z ensembles show two distinct chances for precip over the next
seven days. The first is the system that will move across the area
late Friday and through the day Saturday. There is also a signal for
some light precip on Monday. There are not many changes to the
forecast for Saturday. Operational solutions have shown a common
solution with good agreement. So confidence in the forecast is
increasing. An open shortwave should propagate over the plains with
limited surface cyclogenesis and strong frontogenesis. Warm air
advection with the moisture advection ahead of the cold front is
expected to keep temps above freezing for much of the event with
rain developing by Saturday morning. As the cold front pushes west
to east Saturday, cold air advection should cool the column down
such that the back end of the precip changes to snow. However dry
air advection on the back side of the front and forcing for lift
exiting to the east means the the window for snow to accumulate may
only be a few hours. Because of this minor accumulations of snow are
expected for the forecast area, and the 00Z ensembles support this
with the probability for an inch or more of snow less than 20
percent. Nevertheless that window of a few hours could make travel
difficult as northwest winds increase and potentially reduce
visibilities while any snow falls. Overall the NBM seems to reflect
this well and the only change to the initialization was to increase
wind speeds behind the front.

A Canadian high is progged to build into the forecast area Sunday
with cold dry air keeping highs below freezing. This is expected to
also keep precip chances below 20 percent as the next short wave
digs into the Great Basin. This wave is expected to begin moving out
into the plains late Sunday night and Monday. The GFS and ECMWF are
showing a broad area of mid level frontogenesis developing ahead of
the wave with a chance of light snow forming. Models have not been
the most consistent with the forecast into Monday so the 20 to 30
percent chance POPs from the NBM seem reasonable at this point. If
the snow does develop, it may have a bigger impact to roads with
light accumulations as temperatures are expected to be subfreezing
for more than 24 hrs leading up to the snow. This wave is expected
to pass to the east Monday evening bringing an end to precip
chances. For Tuesday and Wednesday, models prog quasi zonal flow
with another wave digging further west towards southern CA. So dry
weather with moderating temps is forecast into Wednesday of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1037 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Some light flurries or sprinkles could develop this evening but most
guidance shows the better frontogenesis setting up just south and
west of the terminals. Since impacts are likely to be minor if any at
all, will keep the mention of very light showers out of the forecast
for now. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail with decreasing winds.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Happy Thanksgiving!

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters