


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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163 FXUS63 KTOP 162325 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 625 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and storms are forecast to move across the area late tonight and Friday. - A marginal risk for severe storms remains over parts of northeast and east central Kansas late Friday afternoon and Friday evening. - More typical temperatures for October are expected for Sunday and through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 19Z water vapor imagery placed a closed upper low over WY with the upper ridge axis over the lower MS river valley. Surface obs had a low over the ND/SD boarder with a prefrontal trough stretching southwest to the lee of the central Rockies. Breezy south winds have helped temps warm into the 80s while dewpoints mixed out into the lower 50s. The main adjustment to the forecast has been to lower POPs for tonight and Friday due to the upper low lifting further north. 12Z models show the better dynamics lifting north of the forecast area with little if any shortwave energy impacting the area. There continues to be some signal for isentropic lift developing within the warm air advection pattern, and forecast soundings support the idea for some marginal instability of a few hundred J/kg of CAPE. But the RAP and NAM show this to be within a narrow corridor and not terribly strong. Even convergence along the boundary appears to be marginal with the mean low level winds generally parallel to the boundary. So in general less forcing and modest moisture return look to limit elevated shower activity through the day Friday and have kept POPs in the 20 to 30 percent range. Models suggest a little more coverage in showers and storms along the boundary by Friday evening, but even then the low level jet appears to be veered to the southwest with no obvious shortwave seen in the model progs. With this in mind have backed off on the categorical POPs Friday night. Models still show decent bulk shear of 40KT to 50KT. But the marginal risk for severe storms looks to be conditional on the quality of moisture return and enough destabilization. The RAP and NAM hint at surface based CAPE around 1000 J/kg by the late afternoon. Overall the severe weather parameters suggest the risk to be isolated. Surface winds may relax some this evening, but the pressure gradient is expected to keep some mixing in the boundary layer. This should help low temps to hold in the lower 60s. Low level warm air advection ahead of the surface boundary is forecast to lift temps into the lower 80s across east central KS. A little more cloud cover and winds becoming northwest by the afternoon over north central KS should limit highs to the upper 70s. A more amplified shortwave is expected to swing through the central plains Saturday bringing the cold front through the forecast area. There may be some showers and storms across eastern KS as this wave passes, but the better instability is expected to be just southeast of the area. The NBM holds onto some POPs through the day Saturday and this seems reasonable. Cooler temperatures will move in for Sunday with surface high pressure passing over the area. Then a general northwest flow pattern sets up through next week with occasional frontal systems passing through. A shortwave is progged to pass through the plains on Monday and the medium range models are in much better agreement with the timing of this wave. Unfortunately the progressive nature looks to limit any moisture return ahead of the front. So precip chances are less than 20 percent. There is a signal for another front towards the end of the forecast period. Have stuck with the NBM for now given differences in the operational solutions. Periodic frontal passages are forecast to keep temps closer to seasonal norms for next week with lows in the 40s and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Tonight, winds relax into the overnight period. The setup for LLWS conditions will be in place from around 07Z through 14Z as a LLJ strengthens ahead of the frontal system moving in by late in the period. Speed shear is the primary concern but the surface winds don`t appear to fully decouple on go calm. Therefore, marginal LLWS conditions look like the net result with an increase in the winds aloft beginning around FL012 to FL015. Due to the the marginal sheer expected, still no specific line in the forecast for LLWS at this point. If winds appear stronger than forecast much above 40kts aloft then the 06Z forecast may include mention. Into the early morning, a few showers and a possible embedded thunderstorm or two look possible across the terminals. Overall, the setup looks like support for sustained showers or a storm remains weak and still uncertain with only low chances for formation around 20-30% for mainly the morning hours especially sunrise through midday. FROPA begins to take place late in the period around KMHK. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wolters AVIATION...Drake