289
FXUS63 KTOP 152244
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
444 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry for the next couple days.

- Wednesday night cold front brings low rain chances, then windy
  and dry conditions for Thursday.

- Warm pattern continues this weekend into Christmas week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

A much warmer day today across the region, as broad upper ridging
has expanded eastward over the Plains. A strong extended jet streak
remains in place over the eastern Pacific Ocean, which will play a
key role in our weather over the next week. The next two days will
remain warm as upper ridging persists, allowing temperatures to rise
into the 50s.

Changes begin Wednesday night as an upper system from that eastern
Pacific jet streak moves quickly eastward and amplifies north-
central CONUS. This will deepen surface low pressure over the
Northern Plains, with most guidance indicating a sub-990 mb low.
Trailing southwards from the low, a cold front should pass through
northeast Kansas sometime late Wednesday night. A few light showers
may occur initially with the frontal passage, but behind the front
cooler and drier air will quickly move in. The tight pressure
gradient around the low, coupled with fast pressure rises behind the
front, should make for a windy day Thursday. Increased wind gusts
during the day Thursday as a result, with some room for further
increases depending on the exact track and timing of the low.
Guidance also differs on how low RH will drop behind the front, but
if the drier solutions (~25%) like the ECMWF verify, there may be
some fire danger concerns given the gusty winds.

Behind this system, the extended eastern Pacific jet streak will
keep a mild and dry pattern around, with Arctic air mostly locked up
north of the US/Canada border. Temperatures should stay mostly above
average through Christmas, with occasional brief dips closer to
average behind several additional lows moving across the northern
tier states.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 444 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Model`s RH progs and forecast soundings show IFR stratus developing
tonight near or over the terminals. Think the highest probability may
be near MHK where a weak surface trough may allow for better
radiational cooling and near saturation. But stratus to the west two
days ago and the stratus to the southeast now lends some credibility
to the idea for restricted CIGS forming. Will introduce a scattered
deck at the terminals and monitor trends before going all in on the
stratus. If the low clouds form, it may be mid day or early
afternoon before scattering out. Other than the stratus potential,
only some increasing high clouds on Tuesday are expected with a
persistent southwesterly wind in the 5 o 15KT range.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Wolters