311
FXUS63 KTOP 141717
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1117 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog potential continues this morning, mainly in northern and
  western locations.

- Near-record warmth today and still warm this weekend.

- Precipitation chances return Monday then Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Broad upper ridging remains over the High Plains with clear skies
overhead. Weak lee troughing has allowed for modest southerly
surface flow though winds over the lower few thousand feet are in
the 20-30 knot range from the southwest except for weaker flow near
another weak trough around 850mb in western Kansas. This trough
works east into central Kansas near sunrise, lowering mixing and
bringing greater chances for fog to this area. Most short-range
guidance has the most fog in this area as well. Will watch trends
but not expecting any widespread dense fog in this scenario.

Mixing should increase area-wide this afternoon under quite warm mid
and lower levels. 500, 700, and 850mb temperatures are progged to be
near to a few degrees above highest levels measured locally for mid
November, though some surface inversion remains on even the most
aggressive models. Have leaned on some warmer guidance for afternoon
highs with the expectation that any fog will be mixed out by mid
morning with only some isolated to scattered cumulus. This will put
previous record highs in jeopardy. An upper wave digging southeast
along the central U.S./Canadian border drags a modified cold front
through the area Saturday. Westerly low-level flow ahead of the
front results in only slightly cooler highs though record highs are
less likely. The cooler airmass deepens Sunday for somewhat cooler
temperatures but still several degrees above normal.

An upper low off the southern California coast this weekend comes
northeast and splits, with most remaining energy staying north of
the local area. Along with modest moisture, precipitation chances
are low Monday into Monday night. Another upper low moves east
through the southwestern then southern and possibly central
CONUS into the midweek. Uncertainty with this system remains
high but at this point higher NBM PoPs for Wednesday into
Thursday compared to Monday seem reasonable. Temperature spreads
are notable much of next week but near to above normal values
should dominate in this regime and keep any precipitation in
liquid form.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1114 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR at terminals as southerly winds from 5 to 10 kts subside
aft 00Z. Probability for fog redeveloping is low Saturday
morning, given the slightly stronger sfc winds (5-7 kts) and
increasing high clouds. Cannot rule out shallow fog in the river
valley at KTOP towards sunrise. FROPA is forecast to shift
winds to the north at or above 10 kts at the end of the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Updated at 255 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

           Record High         Forecast High
Nov 14
Topeka       77 (1897)              76
Concordia    74 (1990)              77

Nov 15
Topeka       78 (1887, 1899, 1950)  74
Concordia    77 (1887, 1952)        72

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Prieto
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Poage