163
FXUS63 KTOP 162325
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
625 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms are forecast to move across the area
  late tonight and Friday.

- A marginal risk for severe storms remains over parts of northeast
  and east central Kansas late Friday afternoon and Friday evening.

- More typical temperatures for October are expected for Sunday and
  through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

19Z water vapor imagery placed a closed upper low over WY with the
upper ridge axis over the lower MS river valley. Surface obs had a
low over the ND/SD boarder with a prefrontal trough stretching
southwest to the lee of the central Rockies. Breezy south winds have
helped temps warm into the 80s while dewpoints mixed out into the
lower 50s.

The main adjustment to the forecast has been to lower POPs for
tonight and Friday due to the upper low lifting further north. 12Z
models show the better dynamics lifting north of the forecast area
with little if any shortwave energy impacting the area. There
continues to be some signal for isentropic lift developing within the
warm air advection pattern, and forecast soundings support the idea
for some marginal instability of a few hundred J/kg of CAPE. But the
RAP and NAM show this to be within a narrow corridor and not terribly
strong. Even convergence along the boundary appears to be marginal
with the mean low level winds generally parallel to the boundary. So
in general less forcing and modest moisture return look to limit
elevated shower activity through the day Friday and have kept POPs in
the 20 to 30 percent range. Models suggest a little more coverage in
showers and storms along the boundary by Friday evening, but even
then the low level jet appears to be veered to the southwest with no
obvious shortwave seen in the model progs. With this in mind have
backed off on the categorical POPs Friday night. Models still show
decent bulk shear of 40KT to 50KT. But the marginal risk for severe
storms looks to be conditional on the quality of moisture return and
enough destabilization. The RAP and NAM hint at surface based CAPE
around 1000 J/kg by the late afternoon. Overall the severe weather
parameters suggest the risk to be isolated. Surface winds may relax
some this evening, but the pressure gradient is expected to keep some
mixing in the boundary layer. This should help low temps to hold in
the lower 60s. Low level warm air advection ahead of the surface
boundary is forecast to lift temps into the lower 80s across east
central KS. A little more cloud cover and winds becoming northwest by
the afternoon over north central KS should limit highs to the upper
70s.

A more amplified shortwave is expected to swing through the central
plains Saturday bringing the cold front through the forecast area.
There may be some showers and storms across eastern KS as this wave
passes, but the better instability is expected to be just southeast
of the area. The NBM holds onto some POPs through the day Saturday
and this seems reasonable.

Cooler temperatures will move in for Sunday with surface high
pressure passing over the area. Then a general northwest flow
pattern sets up through next week with occasional frontal systems
passing through. A shortwave is progged to pass through the plains
on Monday and the medium range models are in much better agreement
with the timing of this wave. Unfortunately the progressive nature
looks to limit any moisture return ahead of the front. So precip
chances are less than 20 percent. There is a signal for another
front towards the end of the forecast period. Have stuck with the NBM
for now given differences in the operational solutions. Periodic
frontal passages are forecast to keep temps closer to seasonal norms
for next week with lows in the 40s and highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Tonight, winds relax into the overnight period. The setup for
LLWS conditions will be in place from around 07Z through 14Z as
a LLJ strengthens ahead of the frontal system moving in by late
in the period. Speed shear is the primary concern but the
surface winds don`t appear to fully decouple on go calm.
Therefore, marginal LLWS conditions look like the net result
with an increase in the winds aloft beginning around FL012 to
FL015. Due to the the marginal sheer expected, still no specific
line in the forecast for LLWS at this point. If winds appear
stronger than forecast much above 40kts aloft then the 06Z
forecast may include mention. Into the early morning, a few
showers and a possible embedded thunderstorm or two look
possible across the terminals. Overall, the setup looks like
support for sustained showers or a storm remains weak and still
uncertain with only low chances for formation around 20-30% for
mainly the morning hours especially sunrise through midday.
FROPA begins to take place late in the period around KMHK.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Drake