Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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670 FXUS63 KTOP 240435 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1035 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances increase overnight through Monday, light accumulations expected - Cooler and breezy Tuesday as next front moves through - Watching the weekend for colder air and precipitation chances && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 113 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Fog and stratus were slow to clear today, with patchy fog in north central Kansas and a more stubborn area over the east central counties. Warming has been slow east central with temperatures in the 50s, but western areas have recovered into the 60s nicely. Light rain reported in far southwest Kansas on the leading edge of the system progged to bring rain across our area through Monday. The increasing clouds and winds should keep fog generally at bay but will keep an eye on the east central counties where it was slow to clear today. Still looks like rain and showers through the day Monday, with possibly a rumble of thunder in the afternoon, although CAPE values are likely not enough for much more. Better chances of around a quarter inch are generally east and south of Manhattan, although most locations should see some light rain. Breezy northwest winds move in behind the departing upper low on Tuesday afternoon, bringing a cooler than normal airmass into the state through the Thanksgiving holiday, with falling temperatures Tuesday, and highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s Wednesday and Thursday. Increasing uncertainty as we get toward Friday, which currently looks similar to mid week. Into the weekend, most cluster analysis depicting some degree of a longwave trof over the western US, with a cold airmass dropping southward along the western slope of the Rockies. Will need to watch the leading energy/trof that drops southward on Saturday and could bring rain chances and enough cold air for some snow in the north, and additional attention would go to energy and moisture that then streams out of the trof over a cold air mass across the central US. Still a lot of uncertainty between now and then, but something to keep an eye on especially considering travel plans over the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1030 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Increasing IFR stratus is approaching terminals from the west and east at the current hour as incoming bands of rain showers deteriorate cigs to low end MVFR to IFR conditions aft 09Z. Confidence is high in IFR and LIFR cigs persisting from sunrise through the afternoon and early evening periods. Scattered showers may vary in intensity throughout the afternoon while probability for thunder is overall low at this time. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Craven AVIATION...Prieto