446
FXUS63 KTOP 100356
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
956 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Strong northwest winds develop behind a cold front tonight. Gusts
 to near 45 mph are possible in far northeast KS.

-Temperatures fluctuate from above normal to below normal and back
 again through the end of the week.

-The weekend looks much colder, but snow stays north of the
 area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Decided to issue a Wind Advisory for Brown and Nemaha Counties
for the overnight hours into early Wednesday, joining with our
neighboring offices to the north and east. The HREF (as well and
the RAP and HRRR) continue to be most aggressive and suggest
advisory-level wind gusts could be more widespread than this.
However, it is spotty and appears to be on the extremely high
end of guidance. Overall, far northeast KS has the most
consistent signal and has been highlighted in the 90th
percentile, so opted to include those two counties for now.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Today, a clipper system is moving across the northern high plains
while northwest flow persists aloft. Temperatures have warmed well
into the 50s and low 60s across the area this afternoon with breezy
southwest winds and WAA. Tonight, a cold front associated with the
low to our north will quickly work through northeast KS. Northwest
winds behind the boundary will increase to near wind advisory
criteria (gusts of 40 to 45 mph), especially in far northeast KS.
There has not been great agreement between HREF, LREF and NBM in
meeting/exceeding criteria. HREF is the more confident solution in
exceeding 45 mph gusts, and have noticed that the 90th percentile of
NBM has increased slightly. But for now, have held off issuing an
advisory with confidence not quiet high enough. Later shifts will re-
evaluate and may need to consider at least adding far northeast KS
to the advisory issued by neighboring offices. A few of the high
resolution models also show light QPF near the front this
evening and tonight. However, forecast soundings show a 5kft
layer of dry air beneath the cloud deck, so any precip is likely
to evaporate before reaching the ground.

Surface high pressure builds in tomorrow so temperatures will
be closer to normal in the mid 40s for highs. Gusty winds will
decrease during the afternoon as the low moves further east,
away from the region. The forecast remains dry through the rest
of the workweek with another in a series of clipper systems
staying north and east of the CWA on Thursday. Southerly winds
return on Thursday, allowing temperatures to warm back into the
mid 50s and low 60s. The next cold front moves through with that
second clipper system Thursday night. High pressure will
control our conditions through the weekend, keeping temps cooler
than average, especially by Sunday when a reinforcing round of
cold weather moves in. Lows Sunday morning could be in the
single digits with highs Sunday afternoon only in the 20s.
Another batch of snow again stays north of the area this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 956 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Winds continue to be the main aviation concern with VFR forecast
otherwise. A cold front is on its way from southern Nebraska and
will shift winds to the NW early in the period. LLWS remains a
possibility for the first few hours with a 45-50 kt LLJ
overhead. The stronger push of gusty winds should arrive
overnight with 25-35 kt gusts remaining persistent through the
morning hours. There should be a gradual decrease through the
afternoon, eventually falling below 10 kts in the late afternoon
and becoming light and variable by the end of the period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Wednesday for KSZ011-
KSZ012.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Picha
DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Picha