670
FXUS63 KTOP 240435
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1035 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances increase overnight through Monday, light
  accumulations expected

- Cooler and breezy Tuesday as next front moves through

- Watching the weekend for colder air and precipitation chances

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Fog and stratus were slow to clear today, with patchy fog in
north central Kansas and a more stubborn area over the east
central counties. Warming has been slow east central with
temperatures in the 50s, but western areas have recovered into
the 60s nicely. Light rain reported in far southwest Kansas
on the leading edge of the system progged to bring rain across
our area through Monday. The increasing clouds and winds should
keep fog generally at bay but will keep an eye on the east
central counties where it was slow to clear today.

Still looks like rain and showers through the day Monday, with
possibly a rumble of thunder in the afternoon, although CAPE
values are likely not enough for much more. Better chances of
around a quarter inch are generally east and south of Manhattan,
although most locations should see some light rain.

Breezy northwest winds move in behind the departing upper low on
Tuesday afternoon, bringing a cooler than normal airmass into
the state through the Thanksgiving holiday, with falling
temperatures Tuesday, and highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s
Wednesday and Thursday. Increasing uncertainty as we get toward
Friday, which currently looks similar to mid week.

Into the weekend, most cluster analysis depicting some degree
of a longwave trof over the western US, with a cold airmass
dropping southward along the western slope of the Rockies. Will
need to watch the leading energy/trof that drops southward on
Saturday and could bring rain chances and enough cold air for
some snow in the north, and additional attention would go to
energy and moisture that then streams out of the trof over a
cold air mass across the central US. Still a lot of uncertainty
between now and then, but something to keep an eye on especially
considering travel plans over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1030 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Increasing IFR stratus is approaching terminals from the west
and east at the current hour as incoming bands of rain showers
deteriorate cigs to low end MVFR to IFR conditions aft 09Z.
Confidence is high in IFR and LIFR cigs persisting from sunrise
through the afternoon and early evening periods. Scattered
showers may vary in intensity throughout the afternoon while
probability for thunder is overall low at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Craven
AVIATION...Prieto