289
FXUS63 KTOP 111113
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
513 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Last warm day until next week as another cold front moves through
this evening plummeting temperatures over the weekend. Sunday
afternoon high temperatures will struggle to get out of the 20s.

- Precipitation chances remain low over the next week. Some
  across far northeastern Kansas could see some brief snow
  showers late Saturday morning and early afternoon (15-25%).
  Little to no accumulations are expected.

- Look for another warming trend during the next workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Minimal changes in the synoptic pattern has occurred across the
central US with northwesterly flow remaining overhead, extending
from the PNW to the the southeastern US. A warming trend will
continue into the afternoon today as southerly low level flow ahead
of a weak lee trough in western Nebraska mixes down warm 925mb
temperatures. Mostly clear skies and afternoon mixing should promote
temperatures reaching the low 60s across central KS and low to mid
50s closer to northeastern Kansas. The warming trend ends as the lee
cyclone ejects off the high Plains and pushes southeast into eastern
Kansas overnight tonight. CAA behind the low will remain commonplace
Friday through Sunday ushering in below average temperatures. Expect
Friday to reflect the first wave of cold as afternoon highs struggle
to get much warmer than the low 40s.

By Saturday, continued CAA ahead of an advancing arctic high will top
temperatures in the afternoon in the 20s in northern Kansas and low
30s areas south of I-70. A reinforcing mid-level vorticity maximum
embedded in the northwesterly flow is progged to move into eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa by the late morning Saturday. This paired
with diffuse 850-600mb frontogenesis could usher in some light snow
chances. While the best forcing with this system stays north and
east of the area, cannot rule out some brief snow showers making it
this far south and west - mainly across Brown and Nemaha counties.
That said, chances remain low (15-25%) with a trace to no
accumulations expected.

CAA following the passage of this wave of vorticity reintensifies
Saturday evening with a 1040 mb surface high advecting into
northeast Kansas by Sunday morning. The arctic airmass will push
Sunday morning lows into the single digits with areas in far
northeastern Kansas close to 0 degrees. Temperatures rebound
slightly through the afternoon Sunday as surface ridging slides east
and highs top out in the 20s under sunny skies. The warming trend
looks to continue into next week with temperatures returning back
towards averages (highs in the 40s and low 50s). Quasi-zonal flow
should set up by mid week keeping the coolest temperatures north of
the area with mostly dry weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 512 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

VFR TAFs will continue through the period at all sites. Winds
shift towards the southwest through the morning today, generally
staying under 10 knots. A cold front moves across the area late
tonight, shifting winds towards the northwest. Some MVFR stratus
may begin to move in behind the front around sunrise Friday
morning, but have kept out mention at this time due to low
confidence in timing.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer