934
FXUS63 KTOP 042314
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
514 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures moderate Friday and Saturday before another cool-down
on Sunday, then another warm-up Tuesday and Wednesday.

- There remains a low chance for light rain/snow Saturday night
  in northeast KS; otherwise weather looks dry through the
  middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

In the upper levels, broad troughing encompasses much of the CONUS
with the northern stream energy pushing through the Northeast and
the southern stream trough axis extending from Mexico`s Baja
Peninsula up through the southern Rockies. An upper ridge is sitting
off the coast of the Pacific. Meanwhile at the surface, expansive
high pressure has slowly been moving east today and is now centered
in the IA/IL/WI vicinity early this afternoon. This high will
continue to slide east tonight, allowing southerly low-level flow to
spread east across the area as well. Despite clear skies, there
should be just enough WAA and just enough wind off the surface to
keep temperatures from getting as cold as they did this morning,
though it will still be on the chilly side to start out Friday. Lows
are forecast in the upper teens to low 20s, followed by highs
approaching average values in the 40s thanks to the warmer air
advecting into the area. A subtle disturbance passes through the
northwest flow aloft across the Upper Midwest, which brings a weak
sfc trough through the area, but this looks to have little impact on
us aside from high clouds and a brief wind shift back to the north
Friday night.

Southerly low-level flow reestablishes itself Saturday ahead of the
next embedded shortwave, which may have slightly more impact on our
forecast area. Models have been back and forth on how far south this
system and any associated precipitation will be. Overall the best
synoptic forcing for ascent looks to be northeast of the area into
Nebraska and especially Iowa, but the wave could still track south
enough for northern parts of the area to see some brief rain and/or
snow Saturday evening. NBM probabilities for measurable snow are
generally 15% or less, with PoPs only slightly better at 20% or
less. Even these "higher" numbers are mostly concentrated in Brown
County with a dropoff as you go southwest. What is more certain is
the incoming cold air behind the system. Lows Sunday look similar to
what we should see tomorrow, but with highs topping out in the mid
20s to mid 30s.

A general warming trend then ensues as high pressure from Sunday
departs east. By Tuesday, a downslope component to the low-level
winds should help boost temperatures further, and most of the area
has a good shot at seeing 50 degrees! There could be another system
within the northwest flow aloft that brings another cold front
through the area mid-week, but large temperature spreads (20+
degrees) by Thursday lead to low confidence in how impactful that
front may be and how long the warmth will last.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 514 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period with light southerly
wind becoming westerly by tomorrow morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Jones