756
FXUS63 KTOP 071930
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
130 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures are expected to be on a roller coaster this week.

- Generally a dry weather pattern is forecast to continues.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Northwest flow remained over the Great Plains with a shortwave
moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest per the 19Z water vapor
imagery. Surface obs showed high pressure building into the region
with the surface ridge centered over MN.

A weak shortwave is progged to move just north and east of the
forecast area this evening with the better saturation and odds for
measurable precip looking to remain north across NEB, but there is a
small chance that some flurries are spotted across the northern
counties. This is kind of the story for the next seven days as
models show continued northwest flow with periodic shortwaves
tracking just north and east of the forecast area. Cluster analysis
of the 00Z ensembles shows the main variability among the models is
in the amplitude of the pattern. So there isn`t a lot of differences
from the various solutions in the overall pattern. The main
variation is in the magnitude of the surface ridges and subtle
differences in the track of the shortwave energy. This means the NBM
is probability a good iteration to the forecast with low skill in
picking out one solution to make adjustments.

Occasional waves moving through the plains are expected to cause ups
and downs in the temps. After todays`s surface high, temps are
forecast to trend warmer through Tuesday with readings in the middle
50s to near 60 Tuesday afternoon. Another Canadian high pressure
system is progged to move south into the central plains late in the
week. But this is when those differences in the strength of the
ridge show up with the GFS remaining to quickest and coldest
solution. See no reason to deviate from the NBM solution at this
point which brings a strong cool down to the forecast area for
Friday and Saturday.

Precip chances appear to be pretty slim as long as the shortwave
track remains just north and east of the area. 12Z GFS/ECMWF still
hint at some light snow Wednesday night along the NEB state line.
Probabilities for measurable precip from the NBM are in the 10 to 20
percent range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1047 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Forecast soundings maintain an inversion over the stratus suggesting
it could linger well into this evening. When the MVFR CIGS mix out
is the biggest uncertainty and have gone with a compromise between
the NAM and RAP. Otherwise any forcing for precip looks to remain
north. Once the stratus mixes out, VFR conditions should prevail.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters