984
FXUS64 KTSA 031134
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
534 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 528 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

 - Another potent cold front arrives today dropping temperatures
   back well below normal for Thursday.

 - Precipitation chances remain low... some light drizzle or
   freezing drizzle possible Wednesday night into Thursday and low
   chances for rain/wintry mix Thursday across southeast Oklahoma
   and northwest Arkansas.

 - Warmer and dry by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1051 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Another cool night tonight into Wednesday morning, though
persistent southerly winds will keep temperatures from being as
cold Wednesday morning and they were on Tuesday. Some localized
areas of fog/freezing fog will be possible early Wednesday
morning, primarily within any sheltered valley locations across
far southeast Oklahoma or in the Arkansas River Valley of western
Arkansas. No widespread issues are expected, but some isolated
elevated surfaces could develop slick spots in the morning hours.
Temperatures will warm ahead of a frontal boundary that will make
its way into northeast Oklahoma during the late morning/early
afternoon hours. Thus, a fairly wide range in temperatures can be
expected today with temps warming into the mid to upper 40s
across northeast Oklahoma before dropping behind the front this
afternoon. While highs will get into the mid to upper 50s across
the south ahead of the front before its arrival later in the
afternoon. The frontal passage itself will be dry, just turning
sharply colder and gusty northerly winds driving wind chill values
into the 30s by late afternoon across the north.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1051 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

The main impact for the long term will be in the Wednesday night
through Thursday evening timeframe. A fairly persistent signal has
been noted in the hi res model data, showing signs for drizzle
behind the front Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a weak
shortwave provides enough lift over the area. The moist layer
looks to remain below the frontal inversion, with the ice growth
layer remaining devoid of moisture through the night Wednesday,
and thus limiting the potential for other wintry precipitation.
With some of these areas falling well below freezing, freezing
drizzle will be the result which could lead to more widespread
travel impacts...especially by the Thursday morning commute,
mainly north of I-40. Another cold day is in store on Thursday,
with highs only in the 30s to low 40s under thick cloud cover and
with breezy northerly winds through much of the day. A secondary
shortwave will move across Oklahoma during the day Thursday. While
it will be in a weakening state, it could provide enough support
for some rain showers or possibly a light wintry mix mainly south
of I-40 from Thursday afternoon into the evening. Any amounts
look minimal, but some light icing or a couple tenths of
snow/sleet accumulations will be possible, especially in the
higher terrain areas of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

Skies clear Thursday night into Friday and the forecast generally
turns warmer and dry through the rest of the period. Various
frontal passages will moves through the region, though none
looking near as potent as recent fronts. A couple of disturbances
could bring some very low precip chances this weekend into early
next week, but have kept any PoPs below mentionable (less than
10%) currently. Dry and generally above normal temps will dominate
the first part of next week.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Narrow corridor of low stratus has spread into portions of E OK
and NW AR with the most likely near term impact expected around
KFSM. Low confidence that these clouds will expand much more
through mid morning with VFR conditions prevailing away from the
stratus deck. Clouds will steadily increase ahead of the
advancing cold front with a low VFR ceiling likely by mid to late
afternoon for much of the region. Post frontal clouds follow the
advancing front this evening into overnight and lower into MVFR
levels. Patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle could develop at times
late tonight but confidence is low in both coverage and duration
of any potential impacts so forecast will not include this
scenario at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  24  36  27 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   53  34  43  32 /   0   0  20  20
MLC   54  31  41  29 /   0  10  20  20
BVO   46  20  35  22 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   50  28  40  28 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   50  26  38  27 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   52  29  41  28 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   47  21  36  24 /   0   0  10  10
F10   52  26  39  25 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   55  37  45  32 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07