Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
217 FXUS64 KTSA 151747 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1147 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1145 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 - Brief cool down Sunday w/ low showers and storm chances early Monday and again Monday night. - Temps return well above normal Monday and Tuesday. - Unsettled pattern begins Tuesday night w/ increasing shower and thunderstorm chances. Widespread showers and storms Wednesday through Thursday. - A few strong to severe storms possible during the mid week time frame with primary hazard becoming heavy rainfall totals and associated flooding potential. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1145 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Cold front will move into NE OK this afternoon and clear the forecast area late tonight. Little to no impact expected with the frontal passage with breezy winds and slightly cooler temperatures expected Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 1145 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Warm front lifts northward Sunday night with increasing upglide possibly producing scattered light showers and isolated storms by early Monday morning across far E OK and NW AR. This precip quickly lifts east of the region with a return to well above normal temps by Monday afternoon especially across E OK where record highs will again be approached. Instability will steadily increase across the region by Monday afternoon and a low chance of an early evening storm is possible along the decaying warm front. Otherwise, a window of stronger forcing within the base of the wave lifting across the Midwest will spread across the region with a chance of showers and storms Monday night. Tuesday is likely to remain dry with temps continuing well above seasonal normals. Tuesday night will mark the onset of a prolonged precip event as showers and storms develop in advance of a larger and slow moving mid level trough. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected Tuesday night through Wednesday with a few strong to severe storms possible. Lift will further intensify within favorable upper jet dynamics Wednesday night through Thursday while deep moisture is drawn northward. Guidance is in good agreement on the magnitude of the moisture feed with precipitable water values 3 standard deviations above seasonal climatology. Deep layer mean wind fields will also back and become more meridional favoring slower eastward progression and higher potential for repeated rounds of heavy rains. Resultant precip totals are likely to be excessive in some locations with data trends favoring SE OK into NW AR for the most likely zone of heaviest rains, but this will be refined with updated forecasts. The potential for both flash flooding and mainstem river flooding will be present during this event. Uncertainty in timing of the passing wave does lead to prolonged low rain chances late in the forecast but a fair expectation is for rains to end once the wave moves sufficiently eastward and a period of dry weather by late week. The next storm system does show as possibly impacting the region next weekend into the following week with expectations of large uncertainty at this time range. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 South to southwesterly winds and scattered high clouds are anticipated this afternoon ahead of a frontal boundary dropping southeast through the region this afternoon. This boundary is expected to move into southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this evening and remain over far southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas into Sunday morning. Overnight tonight, moisture pooling along the boundary will allow for scattered to broken MVFR ceilings to develop along with the potential for fog development. Conditions look to lift back to low end VFR mid to late morning Sunday. Will add a Tempo group to KMLC and KFSM for timing of greater potential. Otherwise, northerly winds becoming easterly winds and continued scattered/broken high clouds are anticipated behind the front tonight into Sunday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 51 73 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 56 76 53 75 / 0 0 10 20 MLC 55 78 57 84 / 0 0 10 0 BVO 45 71 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 49 72 49 69 / 0 0 10 20 BYV 49 68 47 67 / 0 0 0 30 MKO 53 75 55 79 / 0 0 10 0 MIO 48 70 49 73 / 0 0 0 20 F10 52 75 55 83 / 0 0 10 0 HHW 58 78 59 82 / 0 0 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...20