226
FXUS64 KTSA 091747
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1147 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1147 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

 - Warm and breezy conditions this afternoon, with gusts up to 30
   mph promoting limited fire weather potential.

 - Near to above average temperatures persist through late week
   before additional cold fronts bring below average temps this
   weekend and early next week.

 - Precipitation chances remain very low over the next 7 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Lingering fog and cloud across far southeast Oklahoma will
dissipate within the hour. Otherwise, breezy and warm conditions
will persist this afternoon with some gusts near 30 mph this
afternoon across the area. This will promote some limited fire
weather potential as min RH values drop into the 35 to 45 percent
range this afternoon and we are about 2 weeks removed from any
appreciable rainfall. Highs this afternoon will range form the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows tonight will be mild for this time
of year owing to continue southerly winds ahead of a weak boundary
set to move through the region late tonight.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

The upper pattern over the next week remains mostly conducive to a
series of dry cold fronts with very low rain chances throughout
the period. The first will be a weak cold front forecast to make
its way through the region during the morning hours tomorrow
bringing a change to northerly winds. Temperatures don`t appear
much colder behind this front, but a drop of about 5 degrees or so
can be expected in high temps for tomorrow compared to today.
Breezy southwesterly flow quickly returns on Thursday as the
surface high slides east with temps warming back into the 60s for
most locations. The progressive pattern continues as we move into
the weekend as another front arrives on Friday knocking temps
back several degrees for Friday afternoon.

Guidance remains uncertain, with a wide range of possibilities on
how the weekend will play out. Some scenarios show southerly
winds briefly returning on Saturday, allowing warmer temps by
Saturday afternoon while some show northerly flow and cold air
advection lasting through the day Saturday leading to lower
afternoon highs. With the uncertainties, will continue to just
lean toward the median of the guidance with highs generally in the
upper 40s(north) to lower 60s(south) on Saturday. A stronger
Arctic intrusion into the Great Lakes Area is still on track for
Saturday into Sunday with the upper air pattern supporting more of
a push of the true Arctic airmass to the east through the period.
Still, at least a glancing blow of Arctic air is still forecast
for later in the day Saturday into Sunday as another front pushes
through. Considerable spread remains in the strength of the cold
air on Sunday but right now the forecast call for highs in the 30s
to lower 40s across a good portion of the area. Trends will
continue to be monitored for possibly colder or warmer scenarios
as better agreement becomes available. There is good agreements
that any cold snap will be short lived as the surface ridge
quickly pushes well east and southerly winds return by the
beginning of the week. A warmup is expected through the first part
of next week as upper heights rise and southerly surface flow
dominates.

With dry northwesterly flow aloft dominating the period, generally
dry conditions are expected with each frontal passage. Some low
end PoPs were inserted for Saturday into Sunday morning as enough
low level moisture returns across far southeast Oklahoma into west
central Arkansas that a few very light showers or drizzle could
develop both ahead of and behind the front Saturday evening.
Additional low end rain chances are in the forecast early next
week as a surge of tropical like moisture lifts north out of the
Gulf and across southeast Oklahoma Monday into Tuesday combining
with a weak wave moving over the area.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1108 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with aviation
impacts over the next 24 hours focused on winds and low level wind
shear potential. Gusty southwesterly winds will continue to
develop early this afternoon across all the terminals, with gusts
in the 20 to 25 kt range common. These gusts will continue into
the evening at the far NW AR terminals, as well as MLC, with low
level wind shear concerns also developing during the evening hours
at these same sites and FSM. A cold front will move through the
TAF sites late in the period, with gusty northerly winds beginning
before dawn at BVO and closer to mid to late morning in W AR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  55  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   40  58  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   41  58  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   39  54  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   40  53  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   43  51  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   41  56  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   40  51  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
F10   42  57  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   39  59  34  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...22