511
FXUS64 KTSA 191142
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
542 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 537 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

  - Well above normal temperatures Wednesday.

  - Unsettled pattern begins with increasing shower and
    thunderstorm chances Wednesday evening through Thursday night.
    A few stronger storms possible Wednesday night through
    Thursday afternoon.

  - Cold front Friday will drop temperatures closer to seasonal normal
    this weekend and into early next week.

  - Increasing rain chances again early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1004 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Weak frontal boundary stationed near the Red River late this
evening with a slightly cooler airmass residing over the local
forecast area, after a day of record warmth across western AR and
southeast OK. Lows tonight will be notably cooler in most areas,
but still above normal.

Rich low level moisture remains in place across TX and will begin
to return back north in response to approaching upper low
presently off the southern CA coast. Expectation remains for
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to begin spreading into
mainly southeast OK by late Wed afternoon, with increasing
coverage through the evening with a strengthening low level jet.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1004 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Coverage and intensity of precip increases into Thursday. While
instability looks fairly limited, increasingly strong deep layer
wind fields will support a low-end threat of severe storms both
Wed night and Thursday, especially south of I-40 in closer
proximity to the frontal boundary which lifts back north.

Deep moisture will continue to spread north with precipitable
water nearing record levels anticipated by Thursday, with stronger
forcing spreading east resulting in widespread showers and
thunderstorms with potential for quite heavy rain rates in any
thunderstorms. The result is likely widespread rainfall amounts
of 1-3" and some locally greater amounts. Flash flood threat is
likely to remain localized due to antecedent dry conditions, but
he high rates could certainly lead to flooding of smaller streams
and urban areas.

Bulk of the precip should move east by late Thursday and Friday
as upper wave moves east and a cold front moves through. Temps
will be cooler for the weekend but still several degrees above
normal. Another upper low on track to impact the region early
next week with additional widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms resulting in locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening, although clouds
will be thickening and lowering with time. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may affect mainly the northeast Oklahoma sites by
mid to late evening, with showers and storms becoming more
widespread across the entire area overnight. Ceilings and
visibilities will be reduced in storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  60  70  58 /   0  60  90  90
FSM   79  63  72  61 /  10  60  90  90
MLC   82  64  73  60 /  20  70  90  90
BVO   71  55  68  54 /   0  60  80  90
FYV   76  60  70  58 /   0  60 100 100
BYV   72  58  67  58 /   0  60 100 100
MKO   77  62  70  59 /  10  60  90  90
MIO   70  57  67  58 /   0  70  90 100
F10   77  62  70  58 /  10  70  90  90
HHW   82  64  73  60 /  20  80  90  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05