Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
901 FXUS64 KTSA 161137 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 537 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 535 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Brief cool down Sunday w/ low shower and storm chances early Monday and again Monday night. - Temps return well above normal Monday and Tuesday. - Unsettled pattern begins Tuesday night w/ increasing shower and thunderstorm chances. Widespread showers and storms Wednesday through Thursday. - A few strong to severe storms possible during the mid week time frame with primary hazard becoming heavy rainfall totals and associated flooding potential. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Sunday Night) Issued at 1045 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Weak cold front continues to slowly drift southeast across the forecast area late this evening. Conditions along and ahead of the boundary will be ripe for some patchy fog, mainly across far southeast OK and west-central AR after midnight. Any fog that develops is expected to erode by or just after sunrise. The frontal boundary will gradually reach the Red River around mid-morning before stalling in the vicinity. Cooler, albeit remaining unseasonably warm, and drier weather is expected today (Sunday) with light to moderate winds veering from northeast to east through the daytime as surface high pressure shifts east over the Upper Midwest region. Limited fire weather conditions may setup by late morning and through the afternoon due to the combination of easterly wind gusts 20-25 mph, occasionally higher, ERC percentiles in the 70-90 percentile range across much of the area, and minimum relative humidity values reaching the 30-40 percent range. Fire concerns dwindle by sunset. Afternoon high temperatures will reach the low-mid 70s for most places, near 80 degrees across far southeast OK. The frontal boundary near the Red River will begin to lift northward tonight into Monday morning. Enough lift along and just ahead of the boundary should generate a few light, isolated showers, generally across far eastern OK and northwest AR towards the end of the short term period. Another mild night is forecast, with overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s to upper 50s north- to-south, respectively. Little to no impacts expected. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1045 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 A warm front will continue to try to lift north through the area during the daytime Monday. Any ongoing light and spotty showers/storms at the start of the period will subside and shift north by midday or so. Strong warm air advection will succeed behind the warm front Monday. There is still some uncertainty just how far north and how quickly the frontal boundary will lift through the day. This will ultimately impact high temperatures and fire weather concerns. Temperatures are not expected to be quite as warm as Saturday, but daily records will be approached specifically for portions of eastern OK Monday afternoon. Limited to elevated fire weather concerns are expected to develop during the afternoon, especially across northeast OK where southerly winds will be breeziest and relative humidity values will be lowest (40-50 percent). Instability will also begin to increase Monday afternoon and evening. Enough lift along the decaying warm frontal boundary may spark a few to scattered showers and thunderstorms, with highest chances across southeast OK and northwest AR. Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue Monday night and through the daytime Tuesday. Potent upper-level low/trough will drift over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. As this occurs, very strong moisture advection will take place across the Southern Plains, increasing shower and thunderstorm chances. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Thermodynamic profiles from forecast soundings support the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Moisture and lift further intensifies Wednesday and Thursday, with ensembles showing PWATs increasing above 1.50 inches (near 1.6 inches), between the 95th and 99th percentile, by Thursday morning. As the upper low/trough ejects off the Rockies, widespread heavy rainfall appears likely from Wednesday morning through Thursday night, best and heaviest rainfall chances occurring Wednesday night through Thursday night. Although it is still be too early to predict exact total rainfall amounts through Friday, the LREF Grand Ensemble shows a 50-80 percent chance that all locations in the CWA will see at least 2.0 inches of rainfall from this event. Thus, the main concern in the long term period will be the potential of flash flooding and main stem river flooding generally from Tuesday night into Friday morning. Flood Watch(es) will likely be needed if trends continue. Continue to monitor for further updates. There remains high uncertainty with the forecast by Friday and Saturday, which will highly be dependent on how the upper-level low/trough evolves and tracks. At this time, consensus in model guidance suggests rain chances end by Friday afternoon and a cold front will push through sometime Friday night into next Saturday, resulting in temperatures trending closer to seasonal average by next Saturday. Mejia && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Widespread cloudiness is expected to develop overnight tonight, but at this time it appears ceilings will remain mainly in the VFR range...between 3 and 5 thousand feet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 75 55 79 61 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 76 55 75 62 / 0 10 20 20 MLC 80 58 84 65 / 0 10 0 10 BVO 73 49 77 53 / 0 0 10 10 FYV 73 50 69 59 / 0 10 20 30 BYV 69 49 67 57 / 0 0 20 30 MKO 76 56 79 64 / 0 10 0 20 MIO 71 51 73 59 / 0 0 20 20 F10 76 56 82 63 / 0 10 0 10 HHW 79 61 82 65 / 0 10 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...05