674
FXUS64 KTSA 011707
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1207 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1205 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

 - Frost and freeze conditions will occur tonight and Sunday
   morning. Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories have been issued
   for much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas tonight.

 - Well above normal temperatures return early next week with
   predominantly dry conditions.

 - Breezy to windy conditions develop Tuesday and Thursday
   afternoons, but remain well below advisory criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

High pressure is quickly filling in behind this morning`s frontal
passage with clearing skies from NW to SE. Overnight, clear skies
and light winds will allow for the coldest temperatures of the
season thus far. The Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze
Warning across NE OK and NW AR, as well as portions of SE OK to
account for terrain effects. Within the warning, temperatures are
forecast to fall into the lower 30s and/or upper 20s late tonight
into tomorrow morning. Outside of the warning, temperatures will
generally remain above freezing, but still close enough for frost
development. Have issued a Frost Advisory for these areas as a
result. It is recommended to protect outdoor plants and sensitive
vegetation from the cold tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Low level southerly flow returns tomorrow while upper level
ridging works into the region. This pattern will remain in place
through the first part of next week, allowing for warming
temperatures and dry conditions. By Tuesday, high temperatures
are forecast to climb back into the 70s for most of the area.
Additionally, pressure gradients tighten on Tuesday as a shortwave
traverses through the central Plains. This will encourage
stronger winds during the afternoon hours, with gusts near 25 mph.
Following this system, a cold front attempts to push into the
southern Plains, but likely struggles as it moves into the FA. For
now, will keep high temperatures steady or a degree or two lower
across the north on Wednesday, while warming continues across the
south. No precipitation is expected.

On Thursday, pressure gradients tighten once again as the next
storm system begins to move off the Rockies. This will enhance the
southerly flow across the region and bring another afternoon of
breezy to windy conditions, as well as warming temps further above
average (mid-upper 70s, approaching 80 in a few spots). As
longwave troughing ejects into the central and eastern US, another
frontal boundary will push into the area to end the week. This
will help cool things off as well as bring low rain chances back,
at least for far E OK and NW AR. All in all, generally low impact
weather is likely to persist for the next several days as we begin
the month of November.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with mainly a
decrease in mid and high cloud cover expected regarding sky
trends. Northerly winds up to around 10 kts should prevail for the
first 6 hours of the TAF immediately behind the front, with light
winds overnight and continuing into tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   33  60  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   37  60  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   33  63  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   28  60  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   28  57  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   32  55  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   33  60  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   30  58  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
F10   32  63  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   36  63  40  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for OKZ054>064-
     066>070-074>076.

     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-065-
     071>073.

AR...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...22