Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
215 FXUS64 KTSA 261805 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1205 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1205 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 - Slightly below average temperatures and mostly dry through the rest of the week. - Next storm system arrives Friday night and Saturday bringing strong winds, rain, and low thunderstorm chances. Strong cold front then brings much colder temperatures for early next week. - At least low potential for impactful winter weather early next week. Please monitor for forecast updates as more details become available over the next several days. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 1205 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 Dry conditions are likely through the day with high pressure centered over the region. With a colder airmass now in place, high temperatures will probably max out in the upper 40s to mid 50s this afternoon, which is slightly below average. A subtle wave embedded within NW flow aloft will move towards the region today and tonight, promoting increasing cloud cover with time. There is still low potential for some light drizzle or flurries as this wave passes just to our north tonight, but dry low-level air will probably prevent much precipitation from reaching the ground. Will continue the trend of non-mentionable PoPs (5-10%) in NE OK and NW AR to account for this potential, but any precip is likely to remain very light and no impacts are expected regardless. Low temps tonight bottom out near or below freezing (upper 20s near KS/ MO borders). && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1205 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 After the previously mentioned wave departs, a seasonably pleasant day is forecast for Thanksgiving across E OK and NW AR... featuring partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies, light winds, and highs in the 50s. Another chilly night is in store Thursday night, as lows again fall into the lower 30s or mid-upper 20s. By Friday morning, a mid-level lead wave will be moving out of the Four Corners region and into the Southern Plains. As this occurs, high pressure will be exiting the region as a lee low intensifies to our west. This will bring winds out of the south again, becoming gusty during the afternoon hours. Notable height falls arrive by late day and overnight as an intense low level jet develops overhead. Given the increase in moisture and lift, widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday evening and overnight as the stronger parent trough arrives. Strong sfc winds are likely to continue through Friday night and into Saturday, gusting 25 to 35 mph. The trough axis moves overhead early Saturday with moderate to heavy rainfall continuing across the area. The wave then departs to our east Saturday afternoon and evening, dragging a potent cold front through the forecast area. This will result in diminishing precipitation for the FA, rapidly cooling temperatures, and strong NW winds. Before precipitation ends, a brief switch-over to wintry precip types is possible... but this still appears unlikely and no impacts are expected, even if it were to occur. Given the fairly progressive nature of this storm system and the relatively brief window of moisture return ahead of it, rainfall totals should remain less than an inch for most. Although, some isolated amounts up to 2 inches are not out of question across SE OK and NW AR. Winds behind the front may approach advisory levels, and this will need to be monitored over the coming days. The wind will also create very cold wind chills Saturday night/ Sunday morning, falling into the teens for much of NE OK and NW AR. Primarily dry conditions are then expected on Sunday before the next storm system arrives late Sunday night/ Monday. Guidance has generally trended toward a less aggressive solution regarding winter weather potential Sunday night through Monday. However, it should be stressed that plenty of ensemble members still show potential for impactful winter precipitation, and there is still plenty of time for trends to reverse. With that said, the latest favored outcome suggests a quicker and less intense open wave for the region. This implies lighter precipitation, along with lesser duration and coverage for our area. Additionally, the vertical temperature profile in this outcome would favor more snow than freezing rain...especially for northern locations. The forecast today generally reflects that message, with a light wintry mix or rain/snow late Sunday night through Monday night and very little or no accumulation. So what is the message to take away from this? While odds for an impactful winter storm early next week have trended down overall, winter weather is still in the forecast and minor impacts are still possible. Additionally, there remains a small but meaningful percentage of ensemble members which paint a more robust storm, with greater potential for snow and ice impacts. Uncertainty with pattern evolution persists and the forecast should continue to be monitored for changes in the coming days. In the meantime, please consider your typical winter weather precautions as we go into early December. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Expect increasing mid cloud (cigs ~ 10kft) by this evening, shifting east by Thursday morning. Gusty NW winds in NW AR will back off by this evening. Light winds will prevail areawide tonight. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 33 54 33 54 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 36 56 34 56 / 10 0 0 0 MLC 33 57 34 57 / 10 0 0 0 BVO 28 53 28 53 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 30 52 29 52 / 10 0 0 0 BYV 32 50 30 51 / 10 0 0 0 MKO 33 54 33 54 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 31 51 30 53 / 10 0 0 0 F10 32 56 32 54 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 35 57 34 55 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...43 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...30