483
FXUS64 KTSA 032307
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
607 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 606 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

  - Mostly dry weather with above normal temperatures into next week.

  - Low shower and thunderstorm chances exist toward the early to
    middle of next week, along with slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Longwave pattern features upper troughs along the west coast and
in the southeastern CONUS, with a high-amplitude ridge in between,
which continues to dominate our weather. Yet another day of above
normal daytime temps in the mid 80s to near 90, with south wind
beginning to respond to the slow-moving western trough across
northeast OK. Expect clear conditions to continue through tonight
with lows generally in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Surface winds should respond further to slowly approaching trough
Saturday and Sunday, with both days featuring some gusts in the
20- 30 mph range across northeast OK. Combined with persistence of
well above normal temperatures and humidity bottoming out near
30% west of Highway 75, low-end fire weather danger will develop,
primarily in a corridor between I-40 and US 412 to the west of 75,
where significant rain has largely been absent the past few
weeks.

Western trough is eventually forecast to move into the Central
U.S. and flatten the ridge some next week. which forces a weak
cold front south Monday/Tuesday, while a surge of deeper moisture
associated with a weak wave moving north from the Gulf may
influence areas as far west as western AR. Resultant rainfall
chances do appear limited in either case, though isolated spots in
western AR may see more significant rainfall within moist axis.
Weak front and more cloud cover will push temperatures back closer
to seasonal averages, though still likely a little above. Beyond
mid-week it appears upper ridge will build back with main
westerlies remaining well to the north, signaling continued warm
and dry trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

VFR conditions through the period as skies remain clear. Southerly
winds will come up again during the day tomorrow, with some gusts
near 20 knots possible across northeast Oklahoma tomorrow
afternoon.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  88  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   62  87  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   61  88  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   60  88  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   58  83  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   60  84  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   62  87  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   63  86  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
F10   61  88  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   60  86  62  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04