636
FXUS64 KTSA 150732
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
232 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Quiet weather is anticipated for the remainder of the overnight
hours with mild temperatures and light winds. Today will be another
hot day, with high temperatures rising to the low to mid 90s once
again. Dew points are not expected to be quite as high as yesterday,
mostly in the upper 60s to low 70s. This will still result in
afternoon heat indices of 95-102F, which is a few degrees shy of
Heat Advisory criteria. High pressure over the area will weaken and
retreat eastwards by early evening as a weak shortwave trough
glances the area to the north. Due to unfavorable thermal and
moisture profiles, most of the area will be dry, but an isolated
late afternoon or early evening shower or thunderstorm is possible
(10- 20% chance) for portions of northwest Arkansas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The upper level high will shift eastwards Sunday through Tuesday,
settling into the northeast US. Meanwhile a broad and deep trough
will settle into the western US, with an inverted trough moving
westward over southern Texas. Upper level heights and
temperatures will lower as a result of this pattern
reconfiguration across the CWA, implying a slight cooling trend
into early next week. Additionally, cyclogenesis in the northern
Plains will induce gusty southerly winds across the area for
several days. Max wind gusts of 25-35 mph are expected. These
winds will keep dew points elevated due to enhanced moisture
advection. With slightly lower temperatures, but still elevated
moisture levels, heat indices will continue to approach 95-100F
each day. Rain chances will mostly remain minimal through Tuesday,
though a few high terrain showers or storms could occur in
southeast OK or northwest AR.

By next Wednesday, and continuing into the weekend, upper level
heights will rebuild over the area with any fronts remaining well to
the north. This should imply an increasing temperature trend, with
highs back into the mid 90s for many areas. However, with continued
moisture advection from the south, a few diurnal showers or storms
could still occur, especially Wednesday. But overall the hot and
mostly dry weather pattern we`ve seen of late looks to continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Southerly winds
should become gusty in the 15 to 20 kt range during the afternoon
at the NE OK terminals, with gustiness dropping off with sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  75  94  74 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   97  75  97  74 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   94  73  94  73 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   94  72  94  70 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   92  71  93  69 /  10  10  10   0
BYV   92  71  93  71 /  20  10  10   0
MKO   93  73  93  72 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   93  73  93  73 /  10  10   0   0
F10   93  72  92  72 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   93  72  94  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22