Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
355 FXUS65 KTWC 081944 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 1244 PM MST Sat Nov 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and warm conditions continues through the coming week. Sunday and Monday will have easterly breezes. Temperatures in Graham, Greenlee, and Cochise counties will fall to near normal Sunday, with the potential for a morning freeze in eastern valleys early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Another day of sunny skies and above normal temperatures. As upper-level ridging pushes northward into the Great Basin area, a deepening trough will ascend down the Rocky Mountains with a back door cold front pushing into eastern areas of southern Arizona. The cold front will introduce cool temperatures to predominantly Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties, and tighten the pressure gradient leading to easterly winds. The cool air mass from the front will cool temperatures, increasing the threat for sub- freezing temperatures both Monday and Tuesday mornings. Current NBM probabilities for morning lows below 32 degrees run from 20% to 50% in the Sulphur Springs Valley Monday and Tuesday mornings, however the persisting winds Monday morning may keep temperatures on the warmer end. Winds weaken by Tuesday morning which should provide the greater chance of freezing conditions. Winds will be strongest in areas exposed to east/southeast flow, especially in the Gila River Valley where 15-20 mph winds Sunday afternoon should be common. Breezy conditions will remain overnight into Monday in exposed locations, with winds beginning to diminish in the afternoon. The back door cold front will push out of the area Tuesday to be replaced by weak high pressure raising temperatures a few degrees above normal. Starting just at the end of the 7 day forecast period, there is a signal for strong troughing to develop in the Western CONUS that would lead to a pattern change here in southern Arizona. There is some agreement between the deterministic 12Z ECMWF and Canadian guidance suggesting a strong trough pushing south from the north Pacific however, the GFS is telling a different story. Despite there being some agreement with the models, the timing, intensity, and location of the trough is still widely varying. NBM temperature spreads between the 25th and 75th percentiles remain high; some locations have 20+ degree temperature ranges for the high and the 15+ degree ranges for the low. More clarity to come the closer we get. && .AVIATION...Valid through 10/00Z. SKC through 09/02Z with high clouds AOA 25k ft from KSAD to the east. High clouds will push out of the area by 09/09Z becoming SKC for the rest of the forecast period. Winds mainly under 12 kts and terrain driven until 09/17Z. Aft 09/17Z SFC winds in the Gila River Valley including KSAD and the Aravaipa Valley will be from the southeast at 10-15 kts gusting up to 25 kts. Winds will weaken some to be 8 to 12 kts gusting up to 23 kts by 10/00Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry and unseasonably warm conditions for the next week with afternoon high temperatures generally 4 to 9 degrees above normal. Minimum RH values over the next week will remain in the 12- 22 percent range, though moisture may begin to move into the region by the end of the next work week. 20-foot winds today will be terrain and diurnally driven less than 12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph during the afternoon hours. Winds turn easterly Sunday morning into Monday. These east winds will be highest in areas exposed to east/southeast flow, especially in the Gila River Valley where 10-20 mph winds with gusts to 35 mph are forecast Sunday. Winds weaken significantly by Tuesday. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Malarkey Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson