566
FXUS65 KTWC 041945
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1244 PM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Below normal high temperatures will continue through
Friday. Cold morning low temperatures are expected the next couple
of mornings, with widespread sub-freezing temperatures expected in
the valleys east and south of Tucson. A ridge of high pressure
begins to shift into the region Saturday, strengthening through next
week. This will result in dry conditions and high temperatures
warming to above seasonable levels Sunday through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The latest satellite imagery shows a mix of cumulus
clouds south/southeast of Tucson and high clouds filtering in from
the west. High temperatures currently range from the lower 50s
across the eastern valleys to near 60 degrees from Tucson westward.
Highs today will top out 4-6 degrees below normal. Most of the
clouds should diminish this evening, with generally clear skies
later tonight.

The main weather story will be the cold morning low temperatures
both Friday and Saturday south and east of Tucson. Low temperatures
will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s across much of the lower
elevations of Santa Cruz, Graham, Cochise and Greenlee counties,
with even colder temperatures (lower to mid 20s) in the typical cold
spots of eastern Santa Cruz and the Sulphur Springs valley of
Cochise County. This will be the first freeze of the season for some
of these locations and a Freeze Warning remains in effect from 2 am
to 9 am MST Friday morning. Low temperatures will be in the mid to
upper 30s in the outlying areas surrounding the Tucson Metro,
especially Saturday morning when a few locales might even briefly
fall into the lower 30s.

Friday and Saturday: Baggy troughiness will continue across the
desert southwest through Friday. High temperatures warm 1-3 degrees
on Friday, but will still be a couple of degrees below normal. Highs
then warm another 2-4 degrees on Saturday as ridging begins to build
in from the west, with afternoon highs right around normal.

Sunday: High temperatures continue to warm and will be 2-4 degrees
above normal. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 60s across the
lower elevation locations of eastern Santa Cruz, Cochise, Graham and
Greenlee counties and in the lower 70s from Tucson westward.

Monday through Friday of next week: Highs warm to 5-8 degrees above
normal all of next week, as stronger ridging builds into the desert
southwest from the west. This translates into highs in the upper 60s
to lower 70s across the lower elevation locations of eastern Santa
Cruz, Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties and in the mid to upper
70s from Tucson westward.

Dry conditions are expected through all of next week and next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 06/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at 6k-9k ft AGL mainly from KTUS south/southeast and
SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL areawide thru 05/02Z. Clearing skies aft
05/02Z, with generally SKC conditions/clear skies by 05/06Z. SFC
wind less than 12 kts thru the forecast period, favoring a WLY/NWLY
direction thru 05/03Z and again aft 05/18Z and variable in direction
at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected the next 7 days. Below
normal high temperatures will continue through Friday, with cold
morning lows the next couple of mornings and widespread sub-freezing
temperatures in the valleys south and east of Tucson. 20-foot winds
will generally be 15 mph or less and terrain driven through the
middle of next week. Minimum RH values in the valleys will be in the
23-33 percent range through Friday, lowering to 16-26 percent this
weekend through the middle of next week. High temperatures will be
right around normal on Saturday, warm a couple of degrees above
normal on Sunday, and then warm to 5-8 degrees above normal all of
next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM MST Friday for AZZ503-507>509.

&&

$$

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