Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
884 FXUS65 KTWC 081002 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 302 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm conditions continues through the coming week. Sunday and Monday will have easterly breezes. Temperatures in Graham, Greenlee, and Cochise counties will fall to near normal Sunday, with the potential for a morning freeze in eastern valleys early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Through this weekend, an upper ridge will amplify and become centered over the Great Basin. A trough will deepen east of the Rockies, with an embedded shortwave running down the High Plains on Sunday. This will tighten a surface pressure gradient in southeastern Arizona, bringing easterly winds Sunday into Monday. Winds will be strongest in areas exposed to east/southeast flow, especially in the Gila River Valley where 15-20 mph winds Sunday afternoon should be common. Breezy conditions will remain overnight into Monday in exposed locations, with winds beginning to diminish in the afternoon. This wave to the east will also usher in a backdoor cold front into eastern locations, providing a threat for near to sub-freezing morning lows early next week in Cochise/Graham county valleys. Current NBM probabilities for morning lows below 32 run from 20-45 percent in the Sulphur Springs Valley Monday and Tuesday mornings, however the lingering pressure gradient and subsequent winds Monday morning may keep temperatures on the warmer end. Winds diminish by Tuesday morning which should provide the greater chance of freezing conditions. Still around and past the end of the seven day forecast period but ensemble guidance has seen an uptick in agreement for troughing around the mid-month timeframe. There remains differences in timing (with onset ranging from Friday to early the following week) and amplitude of this upper level trough, but probabilities for cooler than normal temperatures and precipitation chances have come up a bit. Still plenty of time to see details work out. && .AVIATION...Valid through 09/12Z. SKC through the forecast period. Winds mainly under 12 kts and terrain driven. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry and unseasonably warm conditions for the next week with afternoon high temperatures generally 4 to 9 degrees above normal. Minimum RH values over the next week will remain in the 12- 22 percent range, though moisture may begin to move into the region by the end of the work week. 20-foot winds today will be terrain and diurnally driven less than 12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph during the afternoon hours. Winds turn easterly Sunday morning into Monday. These east winds will be highest in areas exposed to east/southeast flow, especially in the Gila River Valley where 10-20 mph winds with gusts to 35 mph are forecast Sunday. Winds weaken significantly by Tuesday. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public...Edwards Aviation...Edwards Fire Weather....Edwards Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson