866
FXUS65 KTWC 300938
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
238 AM MST Tue Sep 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail this week. High
temperatures near normal today, warming to levels about 5 degrees
above normal by Thursday and Friday before cooling back down
closer to near normal levels this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Early morning satellite imagery, on this last day of
September and Monsoon 2025, showed partly cloudy conditions from
Safford NE. Otherwise across SE AZ the sky was clear under short
wave ridging along AZ/NM border. This ridging will push on east
today as a short wave trof passes by to our north. Highs today
will run several degrees warm then yesterday.

Tomorrow, on the first day of October high temperatures will be
similar to today as upper ridging starts to build over the area.
This ridging will continue over the area through Thursday with the
warmest temperatures of the week occurring on Thursday and Friday
with highs up to 5 degrees above normal.

This weekend: Cooler, but still above normal temperatures, as an
upper level trof moves across the state. This feature will bring
afternoon breezes to the area on Saturday and a slight chance of
showers (10%) to northern Greenlee county.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 01/12Z.
SKC to SCT 8k-10k ft AGL thru valid pd. SFC winds variable and
terrain driven less than 10 kts thru 30/17Z and then again aft
01/04Z. SFC winds SWLY/WLY 6-13 kts with lclzd gusts to 20 kts
during other times of the valid period. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions prevail this week across southeast
Arizona. Winds generally south to southwest through this week with
speeds up to 15 mph and gusts up to 20-25 mph. Minimum RHs between
25-35 percent this afternoon will lower through the week as a drier
airmass becomes more established across Southeast Arizona, lowering
to 15-25 percent the second half of the work week. Temperatures will
near to just slightly above normal through Tuesday, warming to above
normal levels the second half of the work week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson