Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
486 FXUS65 KTWC 162200 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 300 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Light winds and clearing skies are on tap this evening, following our first in a series of low pressure systems as it exits the area. Cooler temperatures, chances for precipitation and breezy conditions are in store beginning Tuesday, as our next system with a cold front moves through mid week. High temperatures will run 2 to 6 degrees below normal through Tuesday, then fall 10 to 13 degrees below normal by the middle of the work week. && .DISCUSSION...Active weather continues for southeastern Arizona, as the first in a series of low pressure systems weakens and lifts northeast of the area overnight. This leaves us with a decrease in cloud cover and light winds, which will favor the development of patchy fog across the Sulphur Springs valley and southern San Pedro River Valley Monday morning. Our next storm system will approach Arizona early Tuesday, returning breezy conditions and improved chances for low elevation rain and area mountain snow mid week. Lower elevation precipitation totals Wednesday and Thursday will range from 0.10" to 0.50" across lower elevations, with up to 1.00" over highest elevations such as such as Mt Lemmon, Rincon Mountains, Mt Graham and the Chiricahua mountains. Snow totals for our southern sky island summits will range from 7 to 9 inches. Hannagan meadow snow totals will end up a little higher for this period...up to 10 - 12 inches, due to local upslope precipitation enhancement along the Mogollon rim. Low amplitude ridge of high pressure aloft follows late in the week and temporarily rebuilds across the SE AZ and SW NM, before the third and final upper low in this pattern remains forecast to move across early next week. Below normal temperatures will continue through the end of your work week. && .AVIATION...Valid through 18/00Z. SCT-BKN clouds at 7k-10k ft AGL areawide with ISOLD -SHRA through 04Z then FEW-SCT clouds through 09Z then cloudS tapering off overnight. FEW-SCT clouds 7k-10k AGL from 17/17Z to 18/00Z. Increasing high clouds 18/15Z. SFC southwest wind 15-20 kts and gusts to 25-30 kts thru 17/02Z, then less than 10 kts and variable in direction overnight. Patchy fog may develop across the Sulphur Springs valley and southern San Pedro River Valley Monday morning resulting in localized VSBY 1-3SM BR, potentially impacting KDUG, KFHU and KALK. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A storm system will weaken and move out of the area and this evening, with light winds and decreasing cloud cover overnight. Another system is will follow and move over the area later Tuesday and especially Wednesday-Thursday of next week. This feature will bring another round of precipitation across Southeast Arizona, well below normal temperatures and breezy south to southwest winds. RH values will increase 5 to 10 percent Wednesday, with Min RH values 30-40 percent in the valleys and 60-70+ percent in the mountains, which is well above critical levels. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Public...Tripoli Aviation...Tripoli Fire Weather....Tripoli Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson