289
FXUS65 KTWC 240915
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
215 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler than normal temperatures today then a warmup to
normal or a few degrees above normal Tuesday into the first part
of the weekend. The next weather system could possibly impact
southeast Arizona late this weekend into early next week bringing
cooler temperatures and precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Skies are clearing across most of southeast Arizona
with dewpoints in the low 40s to around 50. This lingering surface
moisture and cooling temperatures could lead to patchy fog for
some locations across southeast Arizona. The 24/00Z HREF shows
areas from Wilcox south in the Sulphur Springs Valley, from
Cascabel south to Sierra Vista, and Casa Grande to Picacho Peak
having the best chances for fog. Probabilities for visibility 1
mile or less range from 20%-70% for these areas. Any fog that does
develop will likely dissipate an hour or two after sunrise.

Aloft, northwest flow is in place with a ridge beginning to
develop off the West Coast. High temperatures today will be a few
degrees warmer than yesterday but still 3-6 degrees below normal.
The ridge inches eastward through the week leading to a continued
warmup. Highs will be around normal Tuesday then a few degrees
above normal Wednesday through Friday. Morning temperatures will
be chilly through Wednesday morning, especially for valleys east
of Tucson where lows will be around freezing to the upper 30s.

Next weekend into early next week ensembles show another Pacific
trough potentially moving through, which could bring another round
of precipitation and cooler temperatures. Still a lot of run to
run and model to model differences but increasing confidence in
a pattern change taking place. Right now the NBM introduces PoPs
late Saturday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 25/12Z.
MVFR and IFR vis possible at KDUG and KOLS due to fog, HREF
probabilities are around 20 percent for vis less than a mile
early this morning at both terminals. If any fog or low stratus
does form it will likely dissipate by 24/15Z. Outside of any low
stratus this morning, skies will be SKC. SFC winds variable less
than 5 kts this morning becoming westerly/northwesterly at 5-10
kts this afternoon and early evening. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Temperatures will be below normal today, then a
warming trend takes over. Dry conditions are also expected
through at least Friday. Min RH will be 30-60 percent through
Tuesday, dropping to 20-30 percent thereafter. 20 foot winds
follow normal diurnal trends with speeds 5 to 10 mph and
occasional afternoon gusts.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Hardin

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