Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
326 FXUS65 KTWC 272021 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 121 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Above normal high temperatures continue through this weekend, then cooling to slightly below normal levels next week. Dry conditions through Sunday before a weather system moves to through the Four Corners region resulting in a slight chance of showers Sunday night and Monday mainly northeast of Tucson. Dry weather returns next Tuesday into Wednesday before precipitation chances return thereafter. && .DISCUSSION...Partly to mostly cloudy skies (cirroform high level clouds) this Thanksgiving afternoon across southeast Arizona with above normal temperatures. These clouds are out ahead of a weak shortwave off to our southwest as the ridge axis that was over our area yesterday continues to move to the east into New Mexico. A benign late November weather pattern for us over the holiday weekend as westerly flow prevails over the next couple of days with a continuation of above normal temperatures. We continue to watch the next northern stream system by late Sunday into Monday but the latest trends in the ensemble and deterministic model suites continue to show this will be a flatter/more progressive system that moves through the Four Corners region Sunday night into Monday. These latest trends are resulting in a continuation in the reduction of precipitation chances with this forecast cycle. Latest PoPs are now in the 10-20 percent range mainly across Graham/Greenlee Counties Sunday night into Monday so not really expecting this system to be impactful. The more northerly trajectory also means that temperatures will continue to remain above normal through Sunday. A few breezes are expected especially in the Upper Gila River Valley on Monday due to favorable northwesterly flow on the backside of the trough. Otherwise, once the trough and cold front move through that will result in temperatures dropping about 5 to 8 degrees from Sunday into Monday, which translates to highs a few degrees below normal early next week. Tuesday and Wednesday continue to look dry then there is more uncertainty and lower confidence later next week as a northern stream system may dig southward from the Great Basin and interact or phase with a subtropical system in the eastern Pacific. The broadbrush general 20-30 percent precipitation chances Wednesday night and Thursday from the NBM look good given the uncertainty. && .AVIATION...Valid through 29/00Z. SCT-BKN clouds mainly AOA 15k AGL thru the end of the forecast period. SFC wind 12 kts or less, favoring a ELY/SELY direction thru 28/19Z, then transitioning to more typical diurnal trends favoring WLY/NWLY aft 28/19Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions through Sunday, with a slight chance (10 to 20 percent) of valley rain/mountain snow Sunday night into Monday mainly northeast of Tucson. Above normal high temperatures continue through Sunday, cooling to slightly below normal early next week. Min RH values will continue to be in the 20-30 percent through Sunday, before briefly rising to 30-40 percent Monday. 20-foot sustained winds of 15 mph of less through Sunday, favoring an east/southeast direction this afternoon, then normal diurnal wind trends through the weekend. Elevated west/northwest winds at 15-20 mph and gusts around 30 mph mainly to the northeast of Tucson Monday. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson