Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
393 FXUS65 KTWC 051006 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 306 AM MST Sun Oct 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High temperatures remain near normal today, then will see a warming trend through the upcoming work week. Slight chances for precipitation arrive by late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Broad troughing persists over the western CONUS with southeastern Arizona sitting on the southern periphery of the cyclonic flow aloft. An embedded shortwave trough that crossed to the north yesterday has fully exited, allowing mid-level pressure contours to become more diffuse. This will lead to weaker wind gusts today than yesterday, topping out at around 30 mph in southern locations closer to the International Border. Temperatures will remain near normal. This coming work week will likely see a transition in the upper level pattern as a southeastern ridge will gradually drift west and build over the desert southwest. This will bring unseasonably warm temperatures with highs becoming 4-8 degrees above normal through much of the week. Mid-level flow becoming southeasterly will likely usher in anomalous moisture the second half of the week, potentially aided by tropical activity to our south in the form of Tropical Storm Priscilla. Precipitation chances from this moisture arrival remain questionable however as synoptic forcing mechanisms will be weak and moisture depth still uncertain. Measurable precipitation chances remain low and in the 10-20 percent range Thursday and Friday, with better chances most likely kept to mountain locations. There may be a better shot in the upcoming weekend to early next week however as ensemble models show reasonable agreement in a Pacific trough approaching the region. && .AVIATION... Surface winds become southwesterly 10-15 knots with gusts to 30 knots after 05/18Z, mainly in southern locations including KOLS- KDUG. Lighter 8-13 knot winds to the north including KTUS and KSAD. SKC through the period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Minimum relative humidities mainly 12-20 percent through Tuesday. Breezy winds of 12-18 mph with gusts to 30 mph mainly through Santa Cruz and southern Cochise counties, with lighter winds to the north. Winds mainly on the lighter side to start the work week, with potentially gusty southeasterly winds in the Gila River Valley Wednesday. A push of moisture should begin to bring up minimum relative humidities through the second half of the week, however rain chances remain low through the remainder of the work week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public...Edwards Aviation...Edwards Fire Weather....Edwards Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson