Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
738 FXUS65 KTWC 280821 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 121 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Above normal high temperatures continue through the weekend, cooling to slightly below normal levels early next week. Dry conditions through the weekend before a weather system moves into the Four Corners Sunday night and Monday, resulting in a slight chance of showers mainly in the White Mountains. Dry weather returns next Tuesday and Wednesday. There is the potential for a system late next week and a chance of precipitation. && .DISCUSSION...A few minor adjustments to the forecast since last night at this time favoring a warmer and drier forecast. The large scale pattern has zonal flow to weak ridging across the desert southwest through Sunday. A fast moving and progressive storm system will dive from the Pacific northwest into south central Colorado Sunday night and Monday, before rapidly moving eastward into the plains. Weak shortwave ridging then takes place Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. Today through Sunday, high temperatures will be 2-5 degrees above normal. This translates into lower to mid 70s from Tucson westward and in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the lower elevations of eastern Santa Cruz, Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties. Dry conditions and periods of highs clouds will prevail across southeast Arizona during this time frame. Sunday night and Monday, the latest ensemble/deterministic models continue to indicate a more easterly and progressive track, with precipitation chances in the 10-15 percent range mainly across northern Graham/Greenlee Counties Sunday night and Monday. High temperatures will cool 3-6 degrees on Monday (compared to Sunday) on the back side of the system, with highs 2-4 degrees below normal Monday. A few breezes are expected especially in the Upper Gila River Valley on Monday due to northwesterly flow on the backside of the trough. Dry conditions return next Tuesday into Wednesday with shortwave ridging and high temperatures right around normal both Tuesday and Wednesday. There is the potential for another storm system Wednesday night into Friday of next week, although confidence remains low at this time in regards track and precipitation chances/amounts. The current NBM forecast has 10-25 percent POPS areawide Wednesday night through Friday which looks reasonable given the high degree of uncertainty. && .AVIATION...Valid through 29/12Z. FEW-SCT clouds AOA 15k ft AGL thru the forecast period. SFC wind 12 kts or less thru the valid period, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions through Sunday, with a slight chance (10-15 percent) of valley rain/mountain snow Sunday night and Monday mainly in the White Mountains northeast of Safford. Above normal high temperatures continue through Sunday, cooling to slightly below normal early next week. Min RH values will continue to be in the 20- 30 percent range through the middle of next week. 20-foot sustained winds of 15 mph or less are expected the next 7 days, along with normal diurnal wind trends. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Zell Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson