Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
050 FXUS65 KTWC 092037 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 137 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Breezy easterly winds are expected today and Monday with a slight cool down in Graham, Greenlee, and Cochise counties. Valleys east of Tucson including the Sulphur Springs Valley may see morning lows fall near to below freezing Monday and Tuesday mornings. A low pressure system may impact the region Friday through the next weekend, bringing chances for precipitation, cooler temperatures, and windy conditions. && .DISCUSSION...A fairly amplified upper level pattern is in place over the CONUS with a strong ridge over the western U.S. and a deep trough dominating the eastern two thirds of the CONUS. At the surface a a modest east-west oriented pressure gradient has set up over Arizona and New Mexico thanks to strong high pressure in the Great Plains and the passage of a backdoor cold front. This gradient has already produced wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph east of Tucson with the strongest winds expected in the Gila River Valley and northeast corner of Cochise County through tonight. These easterly winds will usher in slightly cooler temperatures for areas east of Tucson this afternoon with highs generally just a degree or two above normal. While from Tucson west high temperatures remain 4-7 degrees above normal. Low temperatures tonight east of Tucson will be a few degrees less than the past few nights thanks to the cooler air mass. NBM probabilities for 32 degrees or less are hinting at the Sulphur Springs Valley seeing freezing temperatures. However easterly winds are expected to stay elevated overnight which could keep low temperatures from reaching their full potential. Because of this widespread freezing temperatures are not expected tonight but areas sheltered from the wind could briefly drop to freezing. Overnight Monday into Tuesday morning winds will be weaker giving the Sulphur Springs Valley and Benson area a better chance to see more widespread freezing temperatures. NBM probabilities for 32 degrees or less are between 30-60 percent. Because of this a Freeze Watch is in effect overnight Monday into Tuesday morning for the Sulphur Springs Valley and the Benson/St. David area. As the week goes on the upper air pattern becomes less amplified thanks to the low moving into the Atlantic. However Arizona remains under the influence of the ridge through at least the middle of the week. This will keep temperatures 3-8 degrees above normal through Thursday. Models then show a Pacific trough moving on shore Thursday and moving through the Southwest Friday into the weekend. Little better agreement with the timing of its initial push into the Southwest Friday morning between deterministic models this 12Z cycle compared to previous cycles. However ensembles still show considerable uncertainty with the speed it moves through the region and whether it will be an open wave or a closed low. There is higher confidence in it bringing a colder air mass with high temperatures a few degrees below normal Friday and 8-14 degrees below normal next weekend. The system will also bring a chance for rain and high elevation mountain snow Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION...Valid through 11/00Z. SKC through the forecast period. Surface winds through early afternoon Monday will be east southwest 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts, and 15-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts at KSAD. At KOLS and KDUG winds will decrease earlier, around 10/12Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect gusty east/southeast winds today, especially in areas exposed to east/southeast flow. 10-20 mph sustained winds with gusts to 35 mph with winds on the stronger side through the Gila River Valley and southern and northern Cochise. Increased winds will last into Monday before diminishing by Monday evening. Minimum relative humidity around 12-22 percent through Thursday. There is increasing confidence in a system impacting the region arriving as early as Friday. Increased winds, cooler temperatures, and chances for rain and high elevation snow would arrive with this system. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for AZZ507>509. && $$ Hardin Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson