170
FXUS65 KTWC 222141
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
241 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...An active weekend as a weather system moves across the
area bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Precipitation chances decrease from west to east on Sunday. High
temps cool to below normal Sunday and Monday, then begin a warming
trend through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A very active next 24 hours as an upper low, currently
moving into northern Baja CA as of this writing, lifts northeast
across the area tonight into Sunday. Widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms have developed in the past hour mainly
from Tucson west. On the PWAT side, the value on the 18z Tucson
sounding was 0.66".

As the upper low moves closer to the area over the next 3-6 hours,
expect showers and thunderstorm activity to increase in areal
coverage and PWAT values to increase up to 0.90" which is over
200% of normal. Some of the thunderstorms may produce small hail,
wind gusts around 40 kts and brief heavy rain with potential
rainfall rates over 1"/hour that may produce some brief flooding
issues. Rainfall amounts up to 0.50" in the valleys and over 1" in
some of the sky islands, like the Santa Catalinas. In collab with
WPC this morning, portions of southeast AZ was put in marginal
risk for Excessive Rainfall. On the snow side, snow levels this
afternoon are above the mountain peaks put expected to lower down
to 8000 feet tonight. Convective nature of storms may briefly
bring snow levels down to 7500 feet after 8 pm. Places like Mt
Lemmon area could briefly see snow rates of 1"-2" per hour.

Should see activity start to diminish Sunday morning with a few
instability showers developing Sunday afternoon, mainly NE of
Tucson.

Dry next week with temperatures warming each day and be above
normal by Thursday. Mornings will be on the cool side.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 24/00Z.
BKN ceilings 4k-8k ft AGL thru much of valid pd. SCT to NMRS -SHRA
and WDLY SCT -TSRA thru first 23/12z then decreasing in areal cvg
thru end of valid pd. LCL MVFR conds and mtns OSBCD with +SHRA or
TSRA. SFC winds 5 to 20 kts vrbl in direction depending on
location. Wind gusts near 40 kts with TSRA. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weather system moving through today and Sunday
will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along with
breezy conditions. Light mountain snow will also be possible
tonight above 7500 feet. Shower activity decreases from west to
east on Sunday. 20-foot winds into this evening will be out of
the south southeast 12-18 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. The low
will usher in below normal temps Sunday and Monday, then a warming
trend takes over. Min RH will be 30-60 percent through Tuesday,
dropping to 20-30 percent thereafter.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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