


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
828 FXUS65 KTWC 170836 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 136 AM MST Fri Oct 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Below normal temperatures prevail the next couple of days then temperatures warm to near normal Sunday into early next week. Dry conditions will also prevail through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...Troughing will persist over the next couple of days with a weak shortwave moving through Arizona today. This could lead to slightly elevated winds in Cochise County, but the strongest winds will be east in New Mexico. This will keep temperatures 5-8 degrees below normal through Saturday. Thereafter the upper air pattern changes with a cutoff low centered off the northern coast of Baja and high pressure building into northern Mexico and Texas. This will lead to shortwave ridging over Arizona. The closed low remains offshore through at least Tuesday. Thanks to the ridge temperatures will warm becoming around normal to a few degrees above normal Sunday into the middle of the week. Tucson will be flirting with 90 degrees Monday and Tuesday with NBM probabilities for 90 or above 25 and 50 percent respectively. Tuesday into Wednesday the cutoff low begins to open up and moves on shore. Models do show a modest increase in moisture as the low moves inland with PWAT values up to 175 percent of normal east of Tucson by Wednesday. Right now the trough tracks through northern Arizona putting the best rain chances to the north with slight chances for northern Graham and Greenlee Counties. Still come uncertainty with the exact track of the low, so a further south trajectory could increase rain chances for southeast Arizona. The trough will also bring a slightly cooler air mass with high temperatures becoming a few degrees below normal Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION...Valid through 18/12Z. FEW-SCT cumulus clouds at 4k-8k ft this afternoon and evening, SKC otherwise. SFC winds NW/W at 6-12 kts, with the strongest winds KTUS eastward late this morning into the evening. At other times winds will be terrain driven and remain under 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Minimum RH values will be in the 15-30 percent range in the valleys into next week. 20-foot winds mainly 15 mph or less, with occasional gusts to 20-25 mph. High temperatures will be below normal through Saturday, warming to normal or just above normal levels Sunday into next week. The next chance of precipitation will be around next Tuesday/Wednesday with a slight (~20%) chance of showers in northern Graham and Greenlee Counties. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Hardin Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson