828
FXUS65 KTWC 170836
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
136 AM MST Fri Oct 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Below normal temperatures prevail the next couple of
days then temperatures warm to near normal Sunday into early next
week. Dry conditions will also prevail through the middle of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Troughing will persist over the next couple of days
with a weak shortwave moving through Arizona today. This could
lead to slightly elevated winds in Cochise County, but the
strongest winds will be east in New Mexico. This will keep
temperatures 5-8 degrees below normal through Saturday.
Thereafter the upper air pattern changes with a cutoff low
centered off the northern coast of Baja and high pressure building
into northern Mexico and Texas. This will lead to shortwave
ridging over Arizona. The closed low remains offshore through at
least Tuesday. Thanks to the ridge temperatures will warm becoming
around normal to a few degrees above normal Sunday into the middle
of the week. Tucson will be flirting with 90 degrees Monday and
Tuesday with NBM probabilities for 90 or above 25 and 50 percent
respectively.

Tuesday into Wednesday the cutoff low begins to open up and moves
on shore. Models do show a modest increase in moisture as the low
moves inland with PWAT values up to 175 percent of normal east of
Tucson by Wednesday. Right now the trough tracks through northern
Arizona putting the best rain chances to the north with slight
chances for northern Graham and Greenlee Counties. Still come
uncertainty with the exact track of the low, so a further south
trajectory could increase rain chances for southeast Arizona. The
trough will also bring a slightly cooler air mass with high
temperatures becoming a few degrees below normal Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 18/12Z.
FEW-SCT cumulus clouds at 4k-8k ft this afternoon and evening, SKC
otherwise. SFC winds NW/W at 6-12 kts, with the strongest winds
KTUS eastward late this morning into the evening. At other times
winds will be terrain driven and remain under 10 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Minimum RH values will be in the 15-30 percent
range in the valleys into next week. 20-foot winds mainly 15 mph
or less, with occasional gusts to 20-25 mph. High temperatures
will be below normal through Saturday, warming to normal or just
above normal levels Sunday into next week. The next chance of
precipitation will be around next Tuesday/Wednesday with a slight
(~20%) chance of showers in northern Graham and Greenlee Counties.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Hardin

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