770
FXUS63 KUNR 102015
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
115 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry this week

- Breezy northwest winds across the western SD plains Tuesday
  afternoon

- Next chance for precipitation is late Friday into Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday)
Issued at 110 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

Upper level analysis has a ridge over the desert southwest with a
strong trough and closed low over the Great Lakes and Ohio River
Valley resulting in northwest flow over the forecast area. Water
vapor analysis depicts a large Chinook arch extending from
Alberta, Montana, and Wyoming into Saskatchewan, the Dakotas and
western Nebraska. At the surface, a warm front extends from
eastern Montana down through the Black Hills into western
Nebraska. At 20Z temperatures are mainly in the 40s and 50s, with
a few 60s where winds have turned westerly.

For tonight, temperatures will remain fairly mild with a westerly
component to the wind as a weak cold front approaches the
forecast area. Some spots may dip below freezing in lower lying
areas, but most locations will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

A cold front drops southward from North Dakota and Montana
beginning early Tuesday, bringing a little bit of cloud cover and
gusty northwest winds; a few sprinkles are possible as well.
Current forecast has sustained northwest winds of 25 to 30 mph and
gusts of 35 to 45 mph from 16Z (9 AM MST) to 22Z (3 PM MST)
behind the front, which is just below advisory criteria on the
northwestern South Dakota plains. 3-hr pressure rises are 1-3 mb
which is inline with the wind gust forecast. With winds below
advisory criteria, no wind highlights will be issued, but will let
the next shift re-evaluate if wind speeds look to be stronger.

Tuesday night will be colder with most locations falling near to
below freezing under clear skies with light winds as surface high
pressure builds behind the front.

Warming temperatures are expected for Wednesday and Thursday as
the upper ridge moves east and becomes centered over the forecast
area on Thursday.

For Friday, the upper ridge shifts east of the area, putting the
forecast area in southwest flow aloft as a longwave trough pushes
into the Intermountain West. Ensemble guidance at the surface
brings a cold front through the forecast area late Friday. Models
do have some slight timing differences, which will impact how warm
temperatures rise on Friday. Most locations should get into the
60s, with 50s in the Hills and 70s across southwestern South
Dakota. Additionally, expect some precipitation with this system.
It is still too far out for specifics, but do expect light snow
over the Black Hills late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued At 1023 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

Look for VFR conditions through the valid terminal forecast
period. Winds will become breezy from the northwest during the day
Tuesday.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Smith
AVIATION...Hintz