050
FXUS63 KUNR 250504
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1004 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front enters the region this evening, bringing light
  rain/snow chances and colder temperatures.

- Strong northwest winds expected behind the front through Tuesday
  afternoon.

- Cold continues through the holiday weekend, with more
  precipitation chances over the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 518 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

Strong cold front entering western Campbell County. Given
upstream wind gusts over 60 mph, have decided to issue a short
fused high wind warning for northeast WY for this evening.
Further downstream in western SD, have expanded the high wind
warning few zones, adding Rapid City, Spearfish, western Fall
River, and Colony, WY given hires model trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday)
Issued at 111 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

Current Water Vapor and upper air models snow upper closed low
centered over Kansas, with more zonal flow over the Dakotas, and a
wave over western Montana this afternoon. Surface analysis shows
low over northwestern MT, with a frontal boundary stretching into
southern ID and OR, while high pressure sits over south central
SD. Winds are generally light out of the south to southeast this
afternoon, with temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Upper wave and associated cold front moves into the northern
plains this evening, entering the CWA around 01-03Z. Following
frontal passage, strong northwest winds are expected, with NAM and
GFS both showing 3-5 mb/3hr press rises behind the boundary.
Shortly after FROPA we may see a decrease in winds in the early
overnight hours, however strong CAA and mixing Tuesday morning
will increase the winds again with gusts up to 65 mph possible for
areas of the western SD plains through Tuesday afternoon. Have
upgraded some areas of the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning
and wind advisory accordingly, effective until 00Z Wednesday.

While the bulk of moisture is expected more in North Dakota into
northeastern SD, parts of the forecast area can still expect to
see some light rain/snow this evening through Tuesday afternoon.
Any rain will quickly transition to snow as temperatures drop
behind the front. Any accumulations are generally expected between
a light flurry and under an inch. The exception will be the
northern Black Hills where higher elevations may see 1-3 inches.

Much cooler temperatures settle in following passage of this
system. Highs Tuesday through Friday day sit in the 30s to low
40s with mostly dry conditions after Tuesday afternoon. Attention
then turns to the potential weekend system that may impact the
area. Still no model consensus on the overall track/timing and
precipitation chances, however this system could have a more
significant impact on holiday travel as compared to tonight`s
wave. Regardless, expect even more colder temperatures over the
weekend, and monitor the forecast as we get a better model
consensus on any potential weather impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued At 1003 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

Main aviation concern through this valid TAF period will be the
strong NW winds that will increase across the terminals after 06z
and continue throughout this TAF period. Winds have a high
likelihood of gusting up to 60 mph at the KRAP terminal with gusts
in the 40-45 mph range at the KGCC terminal. With this winds we
can expect some low level wind shear impacts at the KRAP terminal
developing around 14z.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for SDZ001-012-013-025-
     026-031-032-041-043-044-072-073-077-078.
     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST Tuesday for SDZ002-014-027-030-042-
     074>076.
     High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST Tuesday for SDZ046-047-049.
WY...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for WYZ060.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...Woodward