005
FXUS63 KUNR 141712
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1012 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm and dry today, near record highs

- Critical fire weather conditions today across southern South
  Dakota

- Cooler temperatures and less breezy conditions for the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Thursday)
Issued at 218 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

09Z upper level analysis has large ridge across the central CONUS
with mid to high level clouds topping the ridge. At the surface,
high pressure resides across the Rockies and Northern Plains.
Temperatures across the forecast area at 2am are in the 40s and
50s, with breezy south to southwest winds at many locations.

Upper ridge over the forecast area will hold for one more day,
producing mostly sunny skies, and near record temperatures today.
Highs will be in the 70s most areas, with a couple of low 80s very
possible. Breezy west to south west winds are expected today,
with critical fire weather conditions expected across southern
portions of South Dakota through the afternoon.

Upper ridge axis shifts east and south overnight as northern
stream shortwave slides across southern Canada. A few sprinkles
will be possible across northwestern South Dakota tonight as a
weak cold front crosses the area. Low temperatures will remain
fairly mild.

Upper ridge builds back north as northern stream shortwave shifts
east and closed low off the California coast begins to move
inland. Cooler, but still above average temperatures along with
dry conditions continue into the weekend.

Closed upper low across the southwest will swing through the
central Rockies and into the Northern Plains early next week,
bringing cooler temperatures and precip chances. Best chances for
measurable precipitation occur on Monday for most areas. Weather
pattern remains unsettled for the remainder of next week, with
near daily chances for very light precip at times.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday)
Issued At 1010 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. Gusty
west to southwest winds will continue through sunset over portions
of northeastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota. A cold
front will move through the area this evening, shifting winds to
the northwest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 218 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

Very warm air has moved into the area today, producing dry and
very breezy conditions. Across southwest to south central South
Dakota...the relative humidity will drop to 15 to 20 percent by
late morning. Westerly winds will increase through the morning,
with gusts to 25 to 35 mph continuing into the afternoon. This
will produce critical fire weather conditions across southwest and
south central South Dakota. Cooler and less breezy conditions are
expected for the weekend.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for
     SDZ322-325-326-332>335.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...15
AVIATION...Smith
FIRE WEATHER...15