063
FXUS63 KUNR 292035
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
135 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Minor chances for light snow Sunday afternoon/evening along the
  Neb border

- Brief warm on tap for Tuesday before turning colder again
  Wednesday

- Northwest flow will provide upslope opportunities for Black
  Hills snow mid-week and beyond

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 133 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

Latest analysis shows 500hpa trough located in central SD exiting
to the east, with stronger embedded wave/trough moving through
Missouri/Iowa region. Further upstream, the next 500hpa
wave/trough to impact the area is dropping through the Pac NW with
weak shortwave ridging taking place across western MT. At the
surface, strong low pressure located in northeast KS with high
pressure axis building from eastern MT through the Neb panhandle.
Radar imagery at 18z showing one little light band of snow across
eastern Penn. Co, otherwise very little seen in radar returns.
Winds are also diminishing across the CWA from west to east.
Taking a scan of area webcams shows very little in the way of
restricted visibilities due to blsn. With diminishing winds and
snow and improving visibilities, removed all headlines earlier.

For the overnight hours, with weak high pressure settling in
providing mostly clear skies and light winds, it will be a chilly
night. With a blanket of fresh snow cover over much of the area,
have opted to lower lows tonight another couple of degrees below
inherited values, leaving much of the area at or below zero
overnight.

On Sunday, the aformentioned 500hpa trough/wave will dive through
the rockies. Models are showing weak 700hpa theta-e forcing along
the SD/NE border with this feature by late in the day Sunday
through Sunday evening. HREF probabilities for > 0.1 snow during
this time are along the lines of 10-15% along the border. Will
adjust inherited pops to account for location and timing, although
not really looking for much if any accums out of anything that
falls.

Heading into next week, northwest flow remains with temps warming
to near seasonal norms on Tuesday, but then they crash again
Wednesday as another cold surge moves south. They do attempt
another try at rebounding for Thursday ahead of another surge
Friday. With the northwest flow and periodic minor waves passing
through, upslope light snow opportunities exist for the Black
Hills, but better chances of light snow showing up toward the end
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday)
Issued At 1001 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

Areas of MVFR conditions due to snow and blowing snow will improve
over the South Dakota Plains this afternoon from west to east. By
21Z VFR conditions are expected across the entire area.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Hintz
AVIATION...Smith