444
FXUS63 KUNR 111743
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1043 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy northwest winds across the western SD plains this
  afternoon

- Warm and dry through this week with highs 10-15F warmer than
  average

- Next chance for precip comes Friday into Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday)
Issued at 149 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

Current water vapor imagery shows the Northern Plains under
northwest flow with broad ridging in the west and a high amplitude
trof in the east. A weak upper level wave is currently making its
way through the Dakotas. The CWA sits under mid to high level
cloud cover with most recent UDX scans showing weak echos across
northwestern SD and northeastern WY. Given the low humidities at
the surface and airports reporting cloud bases of 10kft or higher,
it`s doubtful any precip falling out of these clouds is making it
to the ground so opting to leave any mention of PoPs out of the
short term grids. It`s a mild night with temperatures in the upper
40s to upper 50s. Winds have shifted to the northwest behind the
passage of a sfc trof.

Clouds will clear out this morning as the wave exits the region
with weak 3-hr pressure rises of 1-3 mb supporting the development
of breezy winds this afternoon. Winds should remain below
advisory criteria with BUFKIT soundings showing gusts of 30 to 35
kt mixing down to the surface in northwestern SD.

Ridge axis will slowly push eastward through the coming days as
Pacific longwave trof moves onshore. This trof will bring our next
chances for precip late Friday into Saturday as the southern half
of the trof breaks off into a southern stream upper low with a
northern stream shortwave and attendant front sweeping across the
Northern Plains. Model guidance still diverges slightly on timing
of this front which will impact Friday`s high temps, though it`s
looking like most areas should get into the 60s with the potential
for mid to upper 70s across the southern half of the CWA. In
terms of precip, could see some rain showers over the lower
elevations and some light snow over the Black Hills. It`s still a
few days out so specifics are murky but most recent LREF grand
ensemble probs have been fairly consistent in showing less than
20-30% chances for QPF to exceed 0.1" Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued At 1042 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. Gusty
northwest winds expected this afternoon, mainly across
northwestern SD where gusts of up to 40kt expected.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong
AVIATION...Dye