716
FXUS63 KUNR 041126
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
426 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next chance of light snow tonight through Fri morning

- More light snow Sat/Sat night

- Warm and windy weather for Mon/Tue

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

Upper air analysis shows northwesterly flow continuing across the
central Great Plains...within broad cyclonic flow stretching across
the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. Surface analysis shows strong high
pressure across eastern SD into MN/IA. A warm front is crossing the
CWA...with surface obs showing temps steady or slowly rising
overnight. Some locations in the downsloping northeastern foothills
have seen temps rise 20 degrees in the last 3-4 hours. High today
will much warmer than yesterday...generally in the 30s to mid 40s. A
surface trough will bring breezy northwest this morning. Dry weather
is expected, but clouds will be increasing ahead of the next wave,
which rolls in tonight/Friday. Light snow will begin late this
evening through Friday morning, but little to no QPF is expected
across most locations. Weak upsloping will redevelop across the
northern Black Hills, which could bring 1-3" of accumulation. After
the next brief dry period, from Fri PM through Fri night, a
disturbance approach, accompanied by a 170kt jet streak crossing the
northern Rockies into the High Plains. A surface low is progged to
cross the Nebraska, drawing cooler air back into the CWA...with
highs in the 20s to low 30s. Another round of light snow will push
through...but this time a bit more widespread. Most areas are
expected to see up to an inch or two over an 18-20 hour
period...maybe slightly higher amounts again across the northern
Black Hills. Generally unsettled NW flow continues early next week.
However, models are showing enough warm air moving in to potentially
bring temps in the 50s Monday and Tuesday. With more disturbances
crossing the area, gusty winds are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued At 425 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

VFR conditions continue today and this evening. Breezy northwest
winds are expected north of Interstate 90. An incoming system will
bring light snow to portions of the area later tonight. Increasing
MVFR/IFR conditions are expected, especially across the Black
Hills through northwest South Dakota.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...13
AVIATION...13