199
FXUS63 KUNR 101030
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
330 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry through this week with highs 10-15F warmer than
  average

- Breezy northwest winds across the western SD plains Tuesday
  afternoon

- Next chance for precip comes Friday into Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday)
Issued at 211 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

Current upper air analysis depicts deepening trof over the
eastern US with a ridge over the western US. A fairly large
Chinook arch extending from AB into MT and WY is showing up on IR
and water vapor imagery. Temperatures across the CWA have dropped
into the teens to 20s with light southerly winds dropping the wind
chills into the single digits in some spots. After a chilly
morning, temps are expected to markedly warm today as the upper
level ridge moves overhead and return flow brings warmer air back
into the region. Highs this afternoon will range from the upper
40s in south central SD to the low 60s across northeastern WY and
the eastern and northern foothills of the Black Hills. Southerly
winds will pick up Monday afternoon as a weak front approaches the
region.

This incoming system won`t do too much aside from bring in some
cloud cover Monday night and a period of breezy northwest winds to
the western SD plains Tuesday afternoon. Can`t rule out a few
sprinkles overnight Monday as mid level moisture advects over the
region but confidence in precip too low to mention in PoPs. As for
the winds on Tuesday, weak 3-hr pressure rises of 1-3 mb could
support gusts of 35 to 45 mph, mainly over northwestern SD.

Ridge broadens and flattens out for the mid-week with above
average temps, dry weather, and light winds as a result. Next
chance for precip comes in the form of a longwave trof pushing
into the western US in the Friday/Saturday timeframe. Models are
still too far out to say any specifics with confidence but it`s
looking like there will be chances for rain showers over the lower
elevations with snow over the Black Hills late Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued At 330 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions through the period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong
AVIATION...Wong