374
FXUS63 KUNR 071127
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
427 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow this morning with minor accumulations

- Strong winds possible on Tuesday, with gusts over 60 mph

- Unsettled and colder for the second half of the week; snow
  amounts uncertain

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Northwest flow continues aloft across the western to central CONUS.
The next wave is crossing MT/WY at this time, with upper level
forcing ahead of the wave, along with a strong surface trough/warm
front. KUDX radar shows snow showers moving across NE WY and far
western SD, along the state line. Behind the trough over the NE WY
plains, temps are in the upper 20s to mid 30s...and over western SD
in the teens. This band of snow will continue eastward this morning,
crossing the western SD plains before moving into central SD by late
morning. Accumulations will be light. Lingering snow showers are
possible across the northern/western Black Hills where upslope
enhancement and steep lapse rates will persist until drier air moves
in around midday. Highs will generally be in the 30s to mid 40s.
Warmer air will continue to advect in overnight tonight, as highs
reach the 40s to lower 50s. A trough crossing the area Monday will
support windy conditions, with gusts to 35 to 45mph. The next wave
affect the region on Tuesday. The extensive warm airmass in place
across the northern plains will support highs in the upper 40s to
lower 60s. A strong upper wave/surface low will cross the Dakotas
bringing strong NW winds. Guidance over the last 24 hours has
trended slightly northward with the track of the system, which has
slightly weakened forecast winds for the CWA. However, it still
looks like High Wind Warning criteria gusts may still affect the
region. Still, am curious how the solutions will change with the 12z
run and if wind speeds will continue to decrease. Will keep on eye
on the trend for potential issuance of headlines. Unsettled weather
is still on tap for the second half of the week into the weekend.
While it does look like the area will see snow, solutions vary
widely, ranging from light to heavy amounts. There is agreement that
much colder air will push into the region toward the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued At 427 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

MVFR/IFR conditions will continue, especially along a line of snow
showers now crossing western South Dakota. Behind the band of
snow, conditions will improve to VFR and remain for the rest of
the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...13
AVIATION...13