169
FXUS63 KUNR 131715
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1015 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry through Friday

- Elevated fire weather conditions Friday afternoon across far
  southern South Dakota

- Cooler temperatures and breezy conditions for the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

10Z upper level analysis has large ridge building across the
Rockies into the Northern Plains. Skies are mostly clear with some
high cloudiness at times. At the surface, a warm frontal boundary
is draped across the forecast area, slowly pushing east.
Temperatures at 3am are in the 30s and 40s, with light and
variable winds.

Upper ridge will continue to build across the Northern Plains
today and Friday. Above average temperatures and dry conditions
will continue. Very dry and breezy conditions develop Friday
afternoon as a cold front approaches the area, producing some
elevated fire weather conditions across far southern South
Dakota.

Broad upper ridge shifts south and east Friday night into the
weekend as a strong trof slides across southern Canada. Main
energy remains north of the area, but could see some very light
rain/sprinkles across northern portions of South Dakota overnight
Friday, with precip amounts negligible. Temperatures will be
slightly cooler on Saturday as the Northern Plains remains under
weak cyclonic flow. Temperatures will remain slightly above
average, with highs in the 50s.

Upper ridge builds back across the area for Sunday, with dry
conditions and slight above average temperatures expected. A
strong upper low will eject out of the western trof across the
Rockies and Northern Plains Sunday night into Monday, bringing
some chances for mainly rain. An unsettled weather pattern
develops for much of next week, with chances for light
precipitation nearly every day. Temperatures will trend back
towards seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday)
Issued At 1006 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. Gusty
southwest winds will develop this evening and continue through
Friday across northeastern Wyoming and portions of southwestern
South Dakota.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 259 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

Upper ridge across the Northern Plains will break down late
Friday as a strong weather system crosses southern Canada. Ahead
of this system, warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and
breezy west winds will produce elevated fire weather conditions
Friday afternoon across southern portions of South Dakota.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...15
AVIATION...Smith
FIRE WEATHER...15