125
FXUS63 KUNR 252038
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
138 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds to diminish quickly this evening

- Cold air to remain in place through Thanksgiving, with colder
  air coming in this weekend

- Snow chances this coming weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

Latest analysis shows 500hpa closed low spinning across northeast
SD with subsidence seen on water vapor imagery across western SD.
Upper ridge is located across the western CONUS. At the surface,
vigorous low pressure is located in central MN with westward
oriented surface trof into west central SD. Very gusty NW surface
winds are still found across the western SD plains, with some
locations still gusting over 45kts as of 20Z.

Winds will quickly diminish this evening as upper level
system/surface system continue to move east away from CWA, winds
decouple and main bubble of 3-hrly pressure rises also slides east
into MN. While winds in and around the Black Hills have already
started to slide below advry/warning criteria, winds on the plains
are still pretty blustery. Will just let current headlines run
until the 00Z time frame when they are set to expire. With the
winds going light overnight and with the expected clearing skies,
have dropped lows tonight an additional 2-4 degrees versus
inherited values.

Northwest flow continues across the region with little in the way
of WAA through Friday, but things do look generally dry. A few
flurries are possible across the higher elevations of the Black
Hills on Wednesday as a minor short wave drops through the area.

Once we get to Friday and the weekend, things begin to look a bit
more active and messy. The next 500hpa trof is forecast to drop
into the midwest. The models have shown little interest in
consistency with this system, placement and sensible weather.
About the only consistent thing that they have shown is that even
colder air will move in with this feature, with the potential of
seeing our first sub-zero overnight lows with highs in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued At 1000 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

Strong northwest winds will continue across the region with gusts
to 50 knots at KRAP. Winds will begin to diminish after 20-22z
from west to east with light winds expected after 03-06z. Isold
MVFR ceilings and -SN are expected across the western SD plains
through 23Z.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for
     SDZ001-012-013-025-026-031-032-041-043-044-046-047-049-072-
     073-077-078.
     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for SDZ002-014-027-
     030-042-074>076.
WY...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ060.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Hintz
AVIATION...Smith