855
FXUS63 KUNR 262055
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
155 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures to remain below to well below normal through early
  next week

- Snow chances still look on track for Friday afternoon and
  Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 150 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

Latest analysis shows closed 500hpa low spinning across the Great
Lakes region, with upper midwest remaining in northwest flow
aloft. Water vapor imagery shows a quick moving short wave
dropping through central MT into northeast WY, bringing areas of
light snow/flurries to parts of our northeast WY counties as seen
on local webcams along with increasing clouds across western SD.
At the surface high pressure continues move south into the upper
plains with generally light winds with temperatures currently in
the mid 20s to lower 30s.

The aforementioned short wave will continue to zip through the
area, exiting the region during the evening hours. Any light
snow/flurries that occur should end by 06Z this evening as
subsidence takes over behind exiting shortwave. Little
accumulation is expected with most places expected to be under an
inch.

Things will be quiet then for Thanksgiving and Friday with
basically neutral temp advection under the northwest flow pattern
aloft. Expected temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s...with the
warmest readings across southwest SD.

Attention then turns to the Friday late afternoon/Saturday time
frame. Models are showing a 700hpa open wave closing off during
the overnight hours Thursday, then dropping southeast across
southern ND and into northeast SD by 12z Saturday. Very strong
700hpa theta-e forcing slides east across the state during the day
Friday, with ascent increasing by late afternoon with tightening
theta-e gradient, east of the Missouri River. Theta-e downglide in
full force by 00Z as a cold front moves south through our area
during the afternoon Friday, resulting in a reinforcing shot of
cold air just in time for the weekend. Generally speaking,
snowfall totals are still looking to be in the 3-6 range for the
northern Black Hills under upslope conditions, with amounts of
1-3 inches elsewhere. Things will look to remain unsettled heading
into next week with nit-noid chances of pcpn as waves move
through in NW flow aloft. Below normal temperatures are still on
tap.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday)
Issued At 1006 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

Isold -SHSN with MVFR conditions are possible through 02Z across
northeast Wyoming and the Black Hills. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Hintz
AVIATION...Smith