797
FXUS65 KVEF 081104
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
304 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry weather and above-normal temperatures will continue through
  the middle of next week.

* A trough of low pressure approaching the West Coast during the
  second half of the week brings uncertainty to the forecast and
  the potential for impactful weather to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next Friday.

Ridging will build over the Southwestern US over the weekend,
bringing breezy northerly winds to the lower Colorado River Valley
today and tomorrow. These northerly winds may briefly touch Lake
Wind Advisory criteria around Laughlin/Bullhead City. However, given
the limited spatial and temporal extent of these winds, no advisory
is planned at this time. Outside of these breezes down the
Colorado River Valley, dry conditions and warmer than normal
temperatures will continue across the region through the middle
of next week as high pressure persists.

As we head into the second half of next week, we will see the
weather pattern shift as a trough approaches the West Coast and
moves through the area. At a minimum, we can expect winds to pick up
and temperatures to cool down, with precipitation likely in the
Eastern Sierra. Beyond this, details become blurry due to
interensemble discrepancies regarding the timing and evolution of
this system. When looking at what is driving these discrepancies,
differences regarding the timing of this system are responsible for
around 60% of the variance, while differences in the strength of the
trough are responsible for around 20% of the variance. Given these
discrepancies regarding the onset and duration of unsettled
weather and associated impacts, it is difficult to provide
details regarding precipitation beyond saying that above normal
precipitation is favored (50 to 70% chance) for the Southwestern
US with this storm system.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...For most
of the period, winds remain light and follow typical, daily
patterns. There is a ~40% chance of occasionally reaching 10-15
knots during the late morning and afternoon hours, but speeds should
largely be 5-10 knots. Mostly clear skies with just a few high
clouds.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Most of the area will
see light winds that follow typical, daily patterns. The exception
is the lower Colorado River Valley where gusts 18-25 knots are
likely (70%). Mostly clear skies with just a few high clouds.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stessman
AVIATION...Woods

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